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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

pcbjr said:
hot damn ...
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Not bad I’ll roll the dice with this. Can’t roll the dice when it’s hot coast to coast. This you can. Also good to see New England below maybe we can score with CAD.
 
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fwiw, gfs flizzard, I wonder if it’s catching on to the idea that there’s gonna be more onset precip like this last one, weird how there ain’t no accumulation especially around the western piedmont/foothills, the column is saturated D3F6E933-12C2-410C-B4B5-2620F1C2D2F1.png5AC4241B-C31D-41EA-9CE1-DAA81F68E59B.png4BADFE06-0FDC-495C-B414-34A0BDCCE043.png
 
pcbjr said:
To be very specific ... did I say I like it? Did I suggest that I like it? No and No.
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Idk, but I love it, 70 degree days are really nice days where you could spend time outside with family or do activities like fishing
Edit * also bass spawning season not to far away in NC/SC
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Idk, but I love it, 70 degree days are really nice days where you could spend time outside with family or do activities like fishing
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Agree ... but IMHO (very humble) that is what late March, April and the 1st half of May are for (at least the fishing part) ... however, if one can't find time with family regardless of the time of year or the weather, then there's a whole 'nother discussion to be had ...
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
fwiw, gfs flizzard, I wonder if it’s catching on to the idea that there’s gonna be more onset precip like this last one, weird how there ain’t no accumulation especially around the western piedmont/foothills, the column is saturated View attachment 33022View attachment 33023View attachment 33024
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Yeah this could get a little interesting. Even the sounding for Monroe is very close. It’s gonna be interesting to see what the NAM has to say as it starts to come into range.... the NAM was the only model that had any period of snow in Monroe last Friday according to soundings and it was right.
 
This looks almost identical to our last event .. except I think more get into the good stuff on this one.. remember almost all models DIDNT see this until the day of .. so if models are somewhat picking it out again that may mean we get even more than we saw before.. of course that’s wish casting but it seems possible if this system can dive in on the heels of the massive storm system that moves out .. seems it would be hard to get that cold air out quickly and we all know how the rates ended up with last system.
 
Here’s the thing about warm weather. We can be mostly warm and have good snow. Just it wouldn’t stick around very long. Snow a inch or two and gone by noon.


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Myfrotho704_ said:
fwiw, gfs flizzard, I wonder if it’s catching on to the idea that there’s gonna be more onset precip like this last one, weird how there ain’t no accumulation especially around the western piedmont/foothills, the column is saturated View attachment 33022View attachment 33023View attachment 33024
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If this sucker would come in at night I feel like that would be super helpful. Where I stand it doesn’t look too hopeful but it does bear watching!
 
Mainly for entertainment since it is the 12Z CFS, a very unreliable model: this is the coldest 5 day period of the entire 45 day run and it isn’t til 3/6-10 (please be right lol):A89ED837-A55D-486C-B48D-89930EE67D46.png
 
namconus_ref_frzn_seus_42.png
0z Nam trying again
 
85 corridor gets raked. Some gusty winds in the east

15C72688-313E-4ED6-BCBB-B45D4C295449.png4E33D755-E3EE-4664-A53A-4A7505755691.png
 
Something to watch for is closings and delays. 3-6 inches of rain. Add in wind gusts 40+ mph. Flooding and power outages could be a issue. I wouldn’t be surprised to see school delays or closings.


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accu35 said:
Not much talk about this system on the wintry side, but this model and others are really increasing the chance for snow showers in the deep south. Worth watching and I'll take anything at this point.
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Good Evening,
Over the many years on the weather boards I pretty much know where everyone is located. This is not directed at you, it would be awesome if peeps would give an idea of location. New members may not know. Thanks
 
Maybe it’s just me but gfs appears to be trending a tad colder. For Saturday night


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This needs to be watched the GFS over the last few runs keeps ramping up precip and bringing the rain/snow line farther south. And with rates that heavy it’s no wonder it keeps going farther south. Those are some heavy rates. I will also mention this is the warmest time of day so if it would speed up then temps would be lower at the start and if it slowed down temps would be falling. I still think it’s interesting how many areas have snow (per this map) even during the warmest time of day.
9AB5EF5F-0976-41D9-91BA-C8BC753CB0E8.jpeg
 
Some of the GEFS members have been hinting at freezing rain by mid month and the subtropical jet looks to remain active as well. If that colder air pushes south and east and meets with that subtropical jet - we could have a catastrophic ice event.

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WxWatch said:
Some of the GEFS members have been hinting at freezing rain by mid month and the subtropical jet looks to remain active as well. If that colder air pushes south and east and meets with that subtropical jet - we could have a catastrophic ice event.

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If we can’t have snow I’ll take a 2-3 inch freezing rain event.


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H
Ethan80963 said:
This needs to be watched the GFS over the last few runs keeps ramping up precip and bringing the rain/snow line farther south. And with rates that heavy it’s no wonder it keeps going farther south. Those are some heavy rates. I will also mention this is the warmest time of day so if it would speed up then temps would be lower at the start and if it slowed down temps would be falling. I still think it’s interesting how many areas have snow (per this map) even during the warmest time of day.
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Here we go again, sounding at my area supportive of wet snow, just the BL bit warm but snow could survive that, especially with heavy rates 1D9B7537-5216-4E30-94CE-4B482BE0DB4F.png
 
Jessy89 said:
If we can’t have snow I’ll take a 2-3 inch freezing rain event.


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Yeah, I don't think there's going to be any solid chances of snowfall anytime soon, not with the SER holding it's position. Ice events can last way longer in the south than snow events.

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WxWatch said:
Yeah, I don't think there's going to be any solid chances of snowfall anytime soon, not with the SER holding it's position. Ice events can last way longer in the south than snow events.

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Gfs though is trying to create a novelty snow though for 85 north in upstate sc parts of NE Georgia and a pretty good snow for western NC. With it being 4-5 days out it has my attention


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