Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Well judging by its last performance, the euro has until 12Z the day of the event to get it correct.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
This. I would lean on the Ukie
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
This will probably happen since the snow stops right at the Wake County line.
We're living in amazing times weatherwise:
twitter.com
from Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf
·
"Euro model continues to advertise record Arctic Oscillation (+AO) next weekend. Why? Huge low pressure in the Arctic with min pressure of 938 mb - for perspective that's on par with Hurricane Matthew. Result: 250 mph Jet Stream in North Atlantic. Most cold air trapped in Arctic.
"
Now let's see how cold the Arctic can get by next week! Going to be fun to follow.
Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf) | Twitter
The latest Tweets from Jeff Berardelli (@WeatherProf). CBS News Meteorologist and Climate Specialist. BS Atmospheric Sciences Cornell University, MA Climate Columbia U. 5/20. Past CBS Miami/NYC/Tampa/Palm Beach. New York, NY
twitter.com
from Jeff Berardelli@WeatherProf
·
"Euro model continues to advertise record Arctic Oscillation (+AO) next weekend. Why? Huge low pressure in the Arctic with min pressure of 938 mb - for perspective that's on par with Hurricane Matthew. Result: 250 mph Jet Stream in North Atlantic. Most cold air trapped in Arctic.
"Now let's see how cold the Arctic can get by next week! Going to be fun to follow.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Whatever chance(s) we had of getting a legitimate Nina this summer are rapidly fading. CANSIPS (& other climate models) are playing catch up to the increasingly obvious central Pacific El Nino that's developing.
The Euro and GEFS are not only predicting the first +5+ AO during met winter since 1992-3, but they're also predicting a record high near +6!
I counted only 7 peaks above +5.0 for the AO since 1950:
- Highest: +5.911 (2/26/1990)..will be threatened in about a week!
- 2nd highest: +5.588 (3/8/2015)(only one not during met winter)
- 3rd highest: +5.582 (1/14/1989)
- 4th highest: +5.245 (1/14/1993)
- 5th highest: +5.147 (2/9/1990)
- 6th highest: +5.078 (1/20/1957)
- 7th highest: +5.040 (12/9/1979)
I counted only 7 peaks above +5.0 for the AO since 1950:
- Highest: +5.911 (2/26/1990)..will be threatened in about a week!
- 2nd highest: +5.588 (3/8/2015)(only one not during met winter)
- 3rd highest: +5.582 (1/14/1989)
- 4th highest: +5.245 (1/14/1993)
- 5th highest: +5.147 (2/9/1990)
- 6th highest: +5.078 (1/20/1957)
- 7th highest: +5.040 (12/9/1979)
I will look at the stats when I get home but I feel like RDU averaged more snow since 2000 in nina/cold netural versus nino.
Regardless I am all for ninas so maybe we can take a shot at shaking things up globally. Continuing to throw nino's out there isn't going to change the base state we are in.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The advancement towards El Nino this spring will continue for the foreseeable future. -NPO/+TNH/-EPO/-WPO coupled w/ persistence of tropical +AAM is indicative of a pattern that favors weak trades in the eastern Pacific. The next westerly wind burst could really set this event off and forestall any NINA until after early-mid summer.
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Nino summers tend to have more thunderstorm activity if I recall which helps to keep the highs relatively cool. I seem to recall they help steer the hurricanes away a bit too.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
+23 departure from normal today. 77F
Stormlover
Member
Wow, that canadian hammers just a few miles from me
JHS
Member
Not a record though. It in the low 80's this day in 1989. Then down in the teens 7 days later.
Edit: Actually only officially 78 at GSP on 2-3-1989 but it did reach 80 where I am.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Almost time for me to officially throw in the towel on this winter.
pcbjr
Member
Fab Feb!!!
Don’t worry, we still have late March and early April, right?
tennessee storm
Member
didn't know where to put this, but day 10 euro is looking quite ominous with the h5 pattern for a big system to produce some significant severe weather over quite a large area , if it holds... the teleconnections are lining up for a big system around that timeframe close the pre valentines day area... there is also some growing ensemble support for this.
NCSNOW
Member
Anyone feel the earthquake in Virginia today,center of state. 2.7, not even sure that's noticeable.
Brent
Member
Good grief 15 inches at my chasing target wondering now if I might get stuck up there lmao
wondering now if I might get stuck up there lmaoNomanslandva
Member
Not me. But that was really pretty far east of here. 5:04 am. People in NE NC were closer than me.
?
Jessy89
Member
5 of those members give upstate sc snow. But won’t happen
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Brent
Member
Winter Storm Watch one county away!
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy sleet possible initially with a transition over to
snow. Total sleet accumulations of up to 1 inch with an
additional 1 to 2 inches of snow possible.
WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
* WHAT...Heavy sleet possible initially with a transition over to
snow. Total sleet accumulations of up to 1 inch with an
additional 1 to 2 inches of snow possible.
Rooting for you!! Hoping at least someone can score. Best of luck!
Mildly interested in wintry potential with our weekend system. Setup is rather mediocre but enough things in play to keep an eye on, plus all we got for a while so why not.
Brent
Member
The wrf is trying to be interesting even here in the metro but dang that band 2 hours to my NW is consistent
Fountainguy97
Member
a lot of mixing going on the further SE you go. Pivotal maps filter out sleet.
Just glancing at models it seems the snow band has shifted a bit further SE today. Or maybe it’s just wider than it was.
Brent
Member
I need to start using Pivotal more
3K NAM has an impressive back door front that makes it as far south as north-eastern Wilkes County. What a mess. Storms could actually enter the county from the north and south at the same time. Wintry mix wanting to come and severe storms wanting to come in a race. True battle zone for flooding upslope rains and unusual temp swinging for northern foothills of NC. 
Even if you saw it coming, it still hurts. It’s not even the pattern that sucks. It’s all the valuable time you waste stuck in it.
Unbelievable! 0z Euro will save us! I really can’t believe how bad this winter has turned out. smh!
Brent
Member
Snow everywhere but Dallas lol after this whether I chase or not I'm gonna be ready for spring
NCSNOW
Member
NCSNOW
Member
The Winter that Toasted will continue: I thoght it couldnt get no worse than last winter outside the December Rogue storm. Boy was I wrong, Anyway atleast we can get some frost Freeze in here by Monday, maybe to keep things at bay blooming wise. Thankfully we had several days last week. Heres Monday, Ukie is the coldest
BufordWX
Member
The rain train is going to be unrelenting this month.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
February-March 500mb patterns preceding all El Ninos in the satellite era:
Week 3-4 CFSv2 forecast.
Week 3-4 CFSv2 forecast.
Brent
Member
Apparently Dallas doesn't get winter storms anymore either. My forecast low is an embarrassing 34
And I will never forgive the GFS for this one days and days of runs absolutely dead wrong
And I will never forgive the GFS for this one days and days of runs absolutely dead wrong
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