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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

whatalife said:
The 12z EPS is coming just a little warmer then the 00z run for 10 day and following. I know this is a shocker

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I should have never said anything...multi run trend to colder and then that. Should have figured that was coming.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
“Enjoy your ridge. It’s the only ridge you’ve got.”

-unknown
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Dude,
I love most everything South East ... Folks, food, fishin', hunting, accent, neighborly interaction, iced tea, common sense, chicken wire to fix anything, occasional cold, but the one thing I hate is that damn SER ... I think Sherman left it as a permanent curse ... :mad:
 
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As high as the AO was in Jan, today's GEFS, which has had a -AO bias, is indicating a very good chance of at least one day with a higher peak than Jan had. It is suggesting a peak of +5+! IF this happens, it will mean only the 2nd Feb with a +5+ AO on record (back to 1950). The only one on record is Feb of 1990, which had a daily peak of +5.9 (highest of any day on record I think). At some point AFTER getting past the upcoming part 2 tele montrosity is when I start to become hopeful for the most extensive BN period of the winter, which I've been consistently thinking:

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18z GFS looked good in fantasy land. Cold in Midwest building and stormy look in Texas. Wouldn’t be surprised to see a big cad storm modeled.
 
If you live in CAD land you should like that the GFS is showing 4 to 5 snow events across the north-east. Could really tap into that parent source later on IMO.
 
GaWx said:
As high as the AO was in Jan, today's GEFS, which has had a -AO bias, is indicating a very good chance of at least one day with a higher peak than Jan had. It is suggesting a peak of +5+! IF this happens, it will mean only the 2nd Feb with a +5+ AO on record (back to 1950). The only one on record is Feb of 1990, which had a daily peak of +5.9 (highest of any day on record I think). At some point AFTER getting past the upcoming part 2 tele montrosity is when I start to become hopeful for the most extensive BN period of the winter, which I've been consistently thinking:

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I do agree that IF we can flip the AO and IF we can get it aimed at the SE it very well could be plenty cold enough even though most of March, considering all the cold has been locked up all winter which hasn't allowed any moderation up that way.
But what are the chances of that realistically flipping? I saw 1990 as the only other time the AO was that positive. I received 0 both Feb and March that year. Now if course GSP is not the center of the universe and it could have worked for someone in the SE but GSP is the only data I have at hand.

Is there any other analogs that may offer more promise?
 
The general trend in the Arctic has mainly been a slow fall recently. With a strongly +AO progged to continue for the next 2 weeks, this general drop may very well continue. Also, note that the coldest daily normals are actually ~2/24-5 (note that little dip of the green line then). Also, note that normals don't start warming up appreciably til mid March, That's why if the upper flow is just right that it can still get very cold even deep into the SE into mid March. Remember how cold it got following the March of 1993 blizzard, for example?

Years when the Arctic's coldest in the entire winter was in March (* = mid Mar; ** = late Mar): 18-19*, 17- 18*, 08-09, 05-06*, 04-05, 02-03, 95-96*, 93-94, 85-86, 84-85**, 83-84**, 75-76, 69-70*, 68-69, The coldest Arctic of the winters in 1985-6 and 1968-9 were down to near -38 C (235 K), which is quite cold for any entire winter's coldest.


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Snowless & Grumpy said:
I do agree that IF we can flip the AO and IF we can get it aimed at the SE it very well could be plenty cold enough even though most of March, considering all the cold has been locked up all winter which hasn't allowed any moderation up that way.
But what are the chances of that realistically flipping? I saw 1990 as the only other time the AO was that positive. I received 0 both Feb and March that year. Now if course GSP is not the center of the universe and it could have worked for someone in the SE but GSP is the only data I have at hand.

Is there any other analogs that may offer more promise?
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Both 1988-9 and 1992-3 had an AO peak of +5+ in January. They both had huge snowstorms in some places in the SE between late Feb and mid March. But the point of my posts isn't about big snowstorms, which are so hard to predict and are pretty localized. It is about general cold, which has largely been lacking for any long duration this winter.
 
GaWx said:
Both 1988-9 and 1992-3 had an AO peak of +5+ in January. They both had huge snowstorms in some places in the SE between late Feb and mid March. But the point of my posts isn't about big snowstorms, which are so hard to predict. It is about general cold, which has largely been lacking for any long duration this winter.
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So, Larry, what is a "snowstorm"? ... and what is "cold"?

hmmmmmm

Oh yeah ... I remember now, what I predicted for January back in October ... never mind ... :eek:
 
Well, if I can't get snow here, maybe I can get a severe storm Thursday.
 
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