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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

At this point I’m thinking the only way anyone sees anything in the south east would be with a CAD event .. if that SER rages like it’s showing only way we’re going to combat it is through big systems moving in leaving some cold air behind and hopefully getting another on it’s heels .. if not we’re royally screwed
 
Still think next weeks storm could be interesting for some does anyone have the euro ensembles for that storm? Euro has been back and forth on low placement but realistically if we can get the low further East more people can be in play with this one
 
Just had a chance to look at the overnight models. Really not that bad. It gives us some hope for things to move around in the LR and give many of us a storm (..or not). The 18z GFS was a monster. No way that could have stayed modeled as shown, especially that far out. Looks like there are two opportunities one at ~day 8 and the other at ~day 12.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
At this point I’m thinking the only way anyone sees anything in the south east would be with a CAD event .. if that SER rages like it’s showing only way we’re going to combat it is through big systems moving in leaving some cold air behind and hopefully getting another on it’s heels .. if not we’re royally screwed
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If we can get a nice strong high (+35) that SER could help make a nice overriding event. The models keep fluctuating on the high strengths.
 
The indices look bad, really bad going into mid month. Not a single one favorable except the EPO and it's in the wrong spot. Its about time to turn out the lights and hope for better luck next year.
 
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NAM 3km does not look as good for snow mountains or foothills and my sounding has a pesky little warm nose
 

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Looks like 12k NAM is also sticking to it’s guns with heavy snow for WNC mountains. It has skipped a few frames on tropical tidbits, so I can’t see it all. Out to 39 and still snowing

mo348536D5-DADD-45B5-A9BB-C4151AD466AF.png
 
Nomanslandva said:
NAM 3km does not look as good for snow mountains or foothills and my sounding has a pesky little warm nose
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I'm looking at the 12k NAM and it still looks good (snow wise) for the NC mountains out to hr 39. And about the same for your area (at the same time span). But this will probably be a high elevation snow event. Looking at the grid forecast the NWS has snow for areas >4000 feet. Even Boone is mostly cold rain. Time to head to Beach Mountain:
Today​
A 20 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 33. South wind 7 to 10 mph.​
Tonight​
Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Southeast wind 7 to 11 mph.​
Friday​
A slight chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain and snow between noon and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. South southeast wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.​
Friday Night​
Snow likely, mainly between 10pm and 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.​
Saturday​
A chance of snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.​
Saturday Night​
A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy.​
 
FallsLake said:
I'm looking at the 12k NAM and it still looks good (snow wise) for the NC mountains out to hr 39. And about the same for your area (at the same time span). But this will probably be a high elevation snow event. Looking at the grid forecast the NWS has snow for areas >4000 feet. Even Boone is mostly cold rain. Time to head to Beach Mountain:

​
Today

A 20 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 33. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
​
Tonight

Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Southeast wind 7 to 11 mph.
​
Friday

A slight chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain and snow between noon and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. South southeast wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
​
Friday Night

Snow likely, mainly between 10pm and 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
​
Saturday

A chance of snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
​
Saturday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy.
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Central mountain and western foothills special.
1580393922449.png
 
FallsLake said:
I'm looking at the 12k NAM and it still looks good (snow wise) for the NC mountains out to hr 39. And about the same for your area (at the same time span). But this will probably be a high elevation snow event. Looking at the grid forecast the NWS has snow for areas >4000 feet. Even Boone is mostly cold rain. Time to head to Beach Mountain:

​
Today

A 20 percent chance of snow after 4pm. Patchy fog before 11am. Otherwise, cloudy, with a high near 33. South wind 7 to 10 mph.
​
Tonight

Patchy fog after 2am. Otherwise, mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Southeast wind 7 to 11 mph.
​
Friday

A slight chance of snow before noon, then a chance of rain and snow between noon and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 37. South southeast wind 6 to 11 mph. Chance of precipitation is 50%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
​
Friday Night

Snow likely, mainly between 10pm and 11pm. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Southeast wind 7 to 9 mph becoming northwest after midnight. Chance of precipitation is 60%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 2 inches possible.
​
Saturday

A chance of snow before 1pm, then a chance of rain and snow between 1pm and 4pm, then a chance of snow after 4pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 34. Breezy, with a west wind 13 to 22 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
​
Saturday Night

A 30 percent chance of snow, mainly before 9pm. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 25. Windy.
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If I get blanked at 3800 feet then I’m done. I feel good about this one.

maggie valley seems to be in a good spot looking at thatmap above
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's not an ENSO neutral pattern and that's also not the characteristics of a NINO pattern. It's a NINA pattern w/ an active subtropical jet. Also, when you make composites, make sure you use a base period that's actually relevant for the years you're analyzing. If you have a bunch of "analogs" in the 60s and 70s, don't use 1981-2010 like you did here. Why? Your composite will be biased cold. Use 1951-2010 or possibly even 1895-2000
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We're are definitely on two different pages of the ENSO. Where are you getting your SSTs from? Far as I got for the latest departures:
Nino 4 - 0.9°C
Nino 3.4 - 0.3°C
Nino 3 - 0.0°C
Nino 1+2 - -0.2°C


Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
WxWatch said:
We're are definitely on two different pages of the ENSO. Where are you getting your SSTs from? Far as I got for the latest departures:
Nino 4 - 0.9°C
Nino 3.4 - 0.3°C
Nino 3 - 0.0°C
Nino 1+2 - -0.2°C


Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
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I’m not talking about the sst anomalies, your interpretation of what’s an ENSO neutral pattern over North America is completely wrong. There’s no signal in the pattern during neutral enso.
 
Icon was interesting for that Feb 7 timeframe..probably not what y’all were hoping for but interesting nonetheless ? ?
D0066CD6-B892-4A94-A13A-52306154902D.png
 
Check the upper air progression depicted on the 12z GFS..ouchy woo woo..like @packfan98 was saying in the whamby, if this materializes there’s a shot we could go dry for a while
6049891C-1BF0-4646-B37B-A9FF3B825EC3.gif
 
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