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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Webberweather53 said:
The key is getting the ridge to be centered over or north of Alaska, the -PNA will break down if this occurs and the big Hudson Bay vortex would slide further south. Very subtle changes to the character of a -EPO turn one of the worst patterns for snow to an amazing one
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How about the SER scenario? Am I wrong by saying that the EPS has a bias of keeping the SER too long instead of breaking it down if there is a trough to the west?

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NCCWOP9077 said:
How about the SER scenario? Am I wrong by saying that the EPS has a bias of keeping the SER too long instead of breaking it down if there is a trough to the west?

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The SER has verified to be very prevalent the last two winters. So, I don't see it having been kept too long by the EPS when averaged out. Of course, there are always exceptions to the rule. What's helped to make the GEFS so bad is that it has been underdoing the SER in the extended and it constantly is correcting as the time draws closer with more SER.
 
The only accurate mid long range forecast this winter for me has been the 10 day wunderground page. Don't know ---- about their algorithm but it's right on. 10 more days of no freezing weather upcoming, in the heart of the heart of winter. Sad, really. I saw another mosquito tonight, just one, little dynamo, but virtually unknown in these parts in January.
 
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