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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Bsud said:
18z GFS looks like its wanting to bring something back in next weekend.

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That time frame serves watching. The GFS is the most aboard next to the ICON. The Euro looks like it's similar but much drier. There's too much going on with the timing of the energy waves but we will know if it can do something when we get closer. It might not be much but if something comes out of it, it's better than nothing.
 
Sooner or latter, the pendellum will swing back folks. Been a rough streak for everyone, glad to see guys cash in today. Was nice to see those big wet paste bomb flakes falling for a fleeting moment today.

1993 I was up in the mtns and we had been in a snow drought imo. Got a 3 or 4 incher in sw mtns that Feb midway, 1st time in a long while. Then that March storm was being talked about 5 days out on the weather channel and news. Remarkable the AVN saw it. Thats the gfs now days I beleive.
 
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Shawn said:
How in the world did this thread become an observation thread for an event that is happening in January?

Please do better guys!

Edit: For the next event, please make a thread for it and observations instead of the pattern thread for another month.
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I’m so confused to see nearly 600 new posts in the February thread. It’s January everyone!!!


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Jon said:
I’m so confused to see nearly 600 new posts in the February thread. It’s January everyone!!!


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Jon,
It's just been that sort of season ... confusing ... (in a word) ...
Best!
Phil
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Here's a preliminary map of today's "surprise" snow event in NC. Southern mountains were the big winners w/ 3-4" of snow reported near Hendersonville. As always, I want to say thanks to everyone for sending their pics and backyard observations, that definitely helped in making this map.


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What exactly constitutes a trace? Snow falling? Or a mix of heavy rain and even the slightest IP for one second?

I was in southern Granville from 9-6 and saw no mixing. Even tried to verify on CC radar (which I saw definite mixing) and every time I thought there would be some I went outside, nothing. Just rain. Not sure a trace verified there but I could have missed it. I saw Allans reports of snow near his house so the map would make sense. Just wondering what it looked like lol


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Jon said:
What exactly constitutes a trace? Snow falling? Or a mix of heavy rain and even the slightest IP for one second?

I was in southern Granville from 9-6 and saw no mixing. Even tried to verify on CC radar (which I saw definite mixing) and every time I thought there would be some I went outside, nothing. Just rain. Not sure a trace verified there but I could have missed it. I saw Allans reports of snow near his house so the map would make sense. Just wondering what it looked like lol


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A trace of snow or sleet is snow &/or sleet literally falling from the sky but not sticking to the ground. I saw a few mPING reports of sleet mixed w/ rain in Granville & Vance counties and trace amounts of wintry precipitation would be spatially and temporally consistent with other (numerous) reports in Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, & Wake counties just to the south where snow & sleet definitely mixed in and the environment was less supportive of snow & sleet.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
A trace of snow or sleet is snow &/or sleet literally falling from the sky but not sticking to the ground. I saw a few mPING reports of sleet mixed w/ rain in Granville & Vance counties and trace amounts of wintry precipitation would be spatially and temporally consistent with other (numerous) reports in Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, & Wake counties just to the south where snow & sleet definitely mixed in and the environment was less supportive of snow & sleet.
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Oh ok. If I could read your scale below I’d answer my own question, but thanks!


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Webberweather53 said:
A trace of snow or sleet is snow &/or sleet literally falling from the sky but not sticking to the ground. I saw a few mPING reports of sleet mixed w/ rain in Granville & Vance counties and trace amounts of wintry precipitation would be spatially and temporally consistent with other (numerous) reports in Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, & Wake counties just to the south where snow & sleet definitely mixed in and the environment was less supportive of snow & sleet.
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The biggest issue I come to find w/ snowfall records (especially earlier in the available record) are non-reporting bias(es) during these marginal-extremely low impact events where there's little-no sleet accumulation and/or the amount is so insignificant it's either missed or simply not reported by voluntary observers, or denoted as "sleet mixed w/ rain, trace snow, etc in the comments section of reports without any official recording of a "T" of snow or sleet (& not to mention other potential errors with automated sites).

All-in-all, the observed records for "trace" snow events (even at some official reporting sites) are often unreliable due to the poor detectability of the wintry precipitation (snow/sleet not falling long enough or amounting to enough to be noticed) and observer or instrumentation error.

Hence, these types of storms which occur the most frequently in the southern US are also poorly underrepresented.
 
After playing in the 3 inches of snow near tuxedo/Hendersonville. I got a room in Maggie Valley I want pancakes tomorrow yum!
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Webberweather53 said:
Here's a preliminary map


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0.5” snow around Elkin Surry County becoming more widespread in Roaring River in eastern Wilkes Co. The most I’ve heard is 1-2” in southern Wilkes on the Brushy mtns. Northern Irdell to western Iredell around 0.25” snow fell total including all snow bands melting throughout the day etc. The sleet line, provided a Trace across Wilkes but increased rapidly up to a tenth of inch near Olin, Iredell where it fell heavy for 1-2 hours. Below is one view of the brushy mtns but unsure what elevation in Wilkes. The next image was in Statesville, Iredell near the hospital of road conditions. 87DD501E-A5F8-420B-BD5C-5C0D11A6D271.jpegEBA7B280-EC6D-4653-802E-7A703D585FB4.jpeg
 
Looking ahead, looks like we may pay for early Feb warmth when temps scorch 10 to 20 degrees for roughly 1-2 days next week. EURO brings glancing shots of cold combine with an active STJ. And nearing the winter-spring transition season can mean bad weather in the Carolinas. IMO, I could see a CAD event by mid Feb or sooner. Plus more winter events in late Feb. I DONT think March will be favorable for winter weather like in previous years where western NC had major events.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Looking ahead, looks like we may pay for early Feb warmth when temps scorch 10 to 20 degrees for roughly 1-2 days next week. EURO brings glancing shots of cold combine with an active STJ. And nearing the winter-spring transition season can mean bad weather in the Carolinas. IMO, I could see a CAD event by mid Feb or sooner. Plus more winter events in late Feb. I DONT think March will be favorable for winter weather like in previous years where western NC had major events.
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After your massive bust today, I figured you would gracefully bow out of the forecasting business.
 
I actually think the short range models such as nam hrrrr rap did pretty well of picking the event that occurred up. However do to the cold bias those models have they where well off on accumulations. No one really saw anything over 2-3.5 inches. However I bet national weather service feels foolish for not issuing a advisory.


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BirdManDoomW said:
Looking ahead, looks like we may pay for early Feb warmth when temps scorch 10 to 20 degrees for roughly 1-2 days next week. EURO brings glancing shots of cold combine with an active STJ. And nearing the winter-spring transition season can mean bad weather in the Carolinas. IMO, I could see a CAD event by mid Feb or sooner. Plus more winter events in late Feb. I DONT think March will be favorable for winter weather like in previous years where western NC had major events.
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Why don’t u think March will be as wintry as last years?
 
Outside of the mtns tomorow night, well be in shut down mode atleast till next weekend. This 5 day stretch AN is gonna run havock on my last 42 day temp forecast. Anyway all we can do is hunt small windows next 6 weeks and try to pull a rabbitt like we did today. It would be worth the misery if we could get a Feb 28, 2004 or March 1993 redux. Dont see a March 1960 (beleive it was) 2 week pattern opportunity. Just a opportunity at a lucky synoptic event possibly.
 
Well you know the caveats here with the long range Gfs ... but you can’t not like this look for mid February the south east ridge will probably trend again but at least we’re seeing a light at the end of the tunnel instead of long range solutions with a monster ridge
 

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And the euro is 10 degrees warmer than the GFS here and no snow close by

Where have I heard this story before lol

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