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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Crappy pattern right now yes.. but what the euro run showed was a definite improvement from yesterday and any sort of shift East or even a bit more cold air supply .. could have big implications for the upper south at least and seeming that we have 240 hours to sit on it I’m sure the position of that storm will change and amount of cold air in place also will change ... we just need to beat this south east ridge back a bit more and a decent miller A could be upon us ? Unless Im wrong .. we’ve seen things trend bad and seen things trend good .. I wouldn’t say we’re too far away from something good .. at least for that storm next Saturday
 
I mean is this that bad of a look? Sure everything’s not in a great place.. would love some -NAO but that’s not there but that ridging off the west coast and into Alaska doesn’t look so bad right?
 

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Nick_boynton_ said:
I mean is this that bad of a look? Sure everything’s not in a great place.. would love some -NAO but that’s not there but that ridging off the west coast and into Alaska doesn’t look so bad right?
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The ridge off the west coast is in a terrible place unless you like -PNA. Gulf of Alaska ridges are no bueno unless they break into Alaska and/or the Pacific side of the Arctic...
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
I mean is this that bad of a look? Sure everything’s not in a great place.. would love some -NAO but that’s not there but that ridging off the west coast and into Alaska doesn’t look so bad right?
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Get rid of that NE Pacific ridge like what just happened and we can get cold in the SE just like what happened. That is a tele to a strong SER. Do you want that? I'd rather have a ridge in W NA/+PNA.
 
GaWx said:
Get rid of that NE Pacific ridge like what just happened and we can get cold in the SE just like what happened. That is a tele to a strong SER. Do you want that? I'd rather have a ridge in W NA/+PNA.
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Couldn’t this ridge adjust positions with time? Also how far into Alaska must it go in order for us to receive more cold air?
 
eyewall said:
I stand by my call that RDU zeros out this winter.
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My worse winter gave my 1" of snow. So I've never been blanked while living in this area. So far I haven't seen a sleet pellet.

I hate to start mentioning March, but that may be our best chance to see anything. This pattern should break down with the arrival of the spring pattern (shorter wave lengths). Our odds will still be (normally) low, but at least we'll have a chance.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Couldn’t this ridge adjust positions with time? Also how far into Alaska must it go in order for us to receive more cold air?
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It is pretty stubborn and seems to be related to a forecasted -AAM and I suppose Maritime phases of the MJO. However, nothing is ever static and both will very likely be in different positions within a month or so. Start checking the models in ~10-14 days (including the MJO and AO) and see if there are then hints of a change.
 
FallsLake said:
My worse winter gave my 1" of snow. So I've never been blanked while living in this area. So far I haven't seen a sleet pellet.

I hate to start mentioning March, but that may be our best chance to see anything. This pattern should break down with the arrival of the spring pattern (shorter wave lengths). Our odds will still be (normally) low, but at least we'll have a chance.
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Have not seen any winter weather here since Dec 2018 when it snowed 2-3" then promptly melted in a few hrs, so really its more like since Jan 2018 so over 2 years now....the worst snow drought I can remember though we had a few in the 90's that were close.....still literally no winter weather at all in 2019, I still think something comes along in the next 3-5 weeks....eastern NC is due for a good thump...
 
I believe this is the type of riding we need into Alaska to help bring us some tremendously cold high pressure systems into our neck of the woods ... which is what brought the outright fantasy of all fantasy ice storms to most of the south east on the 18z Gfs ... wherever the boundary between the south east ridge and those high pressures sets up is going to get a whole lotta winter weather with the combined southern jet streaming moisture in
 

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Holy hell it goes on for days.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Nighttime lows and daytime highs after a storm like that .... also monstrous high pressures (1050+) filtering in from 240+ hours until the end of the run which looked like the last photo.. no south east ridge problems at the end of this run that’s for sure ?
 

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