packfan98
Moderator
This looks familiar...
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
And on that note, a decent track for some of the NW portions of the SE but not a lot of cold air to work with/no real surface high:
Some mountain snow though per this Doc:
The H5 pattern on the 300+ hour gfs was insane, insane Aleutian ridge, Insane cold vortex in Canada with constant energy swinging around it and a hell of a SE ridge right on the edge, wata
slower with the storm, at least we can say it improved.This looks familiar...
Careful. I caught a lot of flack yesterday for talking about how warm it’s going to be under that ridge..
ATLwxfan
Member
Unfortunately, warmth is all we have. The good news is every EPS run has been trending warmer for next week.
I went a few days without looking that much but then the past couple of days I've been trying to find some ray of hope....come to the conclusion there's no hope.
That's workable with a more OTS surface low track, I think. Not that that's going to happen, but it's possible.
Jessy89
Member
I’ve accepted it’s not going to snow outside the mountains or Tennessee thus winter. But part of me still wants to hope. However this winter has sucked big time.
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ATLwxfan
Member
So we already know what things are going to be like mid and late month? Yes we have not had a good winter but we’ve also had lousy modeling and teleconnection forecasting. I can’t make heads or tails of it. Not sure how anyone can. I’ve waffled on this but I think the real answer is we just don’t know aside from analogs. So...what do the analogs show?
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Isn't the SER/NE Pacific ridge couplet just lovely? Isn't the -AAM absolutely wonderful?
Anyone want to take a road trip to CO?
Well, @Brent, @SoutheastRidge, @Golf7575 should like since they're not in the SE.
Yes, the coldest air in the world anomalywise is in the N Rockies. But cold air in the N Rockies does us no good in this case when it is blocked.
Anyone want to take a road trip to CO?
Well, @Brent, @SoutheastRidge, @Golf7575 should like since they're not in the SE.
Yes, the coldest air in the world anomalywise is in the N Rockies. But cold air in the N Rockies does us no good in this case when it is blocked.
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That looks pretty bad. Hey, can you drop a suggestion in the suggestion box for Maxckar to upgrade their graphics from DOS? Thanks man!
I'll do so. Have you been using your VCR much lately?Here's another interesting map, a strat map: look at that Siberian warming! Implications?
Attachments
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Here's another interesting map, a strat map: look at that Siberian warming! Implications?
View attachment 32537
Weakens the vortex just in time for the middle of spring? Yawn
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It's definitely not a NINA, the -AAM burst is related to subseasonal variability, but the subtropical jet still hasn't collapsed (as some had initially forecast to occur).
Here's a much earlier strat anomaly map: a decent Arctic warming (stronger than that Siberian warming I just posted) though not nearly as strong as the very strong Arctic SSW of last winter meaning nothing to write home about imo/nothing out of the ordinary:
These soundings from the NAM around LKN in NC are to close, BL issues but that’s heavy precipitation and excellent lift in the DGZ, close call with a burst of wet snow/rain at the surface with this type of look, probably gonna be lots of brightbanding with this coastal 