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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

The mid/lr models this winter have been like the Braves offseason... sign Donaldson, sign Donaldson, get Ozuna, get Ozuna, rinse, repeat...
 
Webberweather53 said:
Here's a preliminary map of today's "surprise" snow event in NC. Southern mountains were the big winners w/ 3-4" of snow reported near Hendersonville. As always, I want to say thanks to everyone for sending their pics and backyard observations, that definitely helped in making this map.


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Per request, here's a similar map for SC. In the future, I'm gonna try to map both North & South Carolina if a winter storm impacts both states.

January 31 2020 SC Snowmap.jpg
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'd gladly take the end of the 0z Euro & run with it. The ridge building over the Canadian Rockies is nice to see

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Hawaii cold, Alaska warm, somehow SE is warm. Seems that the normal pattern is just zonked, or tilted too much to the right. What are the teleconnective reasons this is happening? AKA, why is this happening to me?
 
We got some nice big flakes in W-S but no sticking. I was wrong on my forecast as I thought it would not make it this far East (about 30 miles off) but I did get the axis right. At least some in our area got to see some sticking snow, congrats!
 
ForsythSnow said:
I noticed that with the EPS again this morning. The GEFS however is stuck on the SER idea. At least we know it's less likely to get it right.
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You can see why...GEFS would be welcome to spring and EPS would give a legit chance to places further east. If it was flipped and the GEFS was showing building heights towards NW provinces I wouldn't even consider it.

gefseps.gif
 
SD said:
There was a pretty dramatic drop in the mean temps basically 4-6 degrees with some 40s for highs showing up. Thankfully its still feb and just cold enough could work
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One last gasp. If this falls apart and we snap back to a big AK vortex then that will probably be it for our winter. But if this can build and we might have a chance or two the last couple of weeks in Feb.
 
I feel like we’ve been stuck in a pattern of transient warm shots and transient cold shots nothing has really stuck for longer than 3-4 days IMO I think the warm days have just been more above average than our below average days have been below average (if that makes sense)

I also like that the Gfs is showing warmth and south East ridges while the EURO says cold will make a come back .. so I can finally spit on the Gfs along with everyone in this forum and not feel bad about it :)
 
Slopes are packed out today. It’s like everybody else has been watching the long range models too ? ?..great natural powder. Probably the last solid weekend of the winter. Everybody knows it. Beautiful out here. Minus the summit snow guns blowing in your eyes..
 
Gfs actually has a nice clipper system after that big storm this week bring some snow showers to some parts of the southeast and then it looks like it cooled down a lot around 240+ with a big time CAD event for party’s of NC and VA ... slow and steady she cools
 
This "Brent" special is starting to catch my eye little more with back side snow. If anything, I hope you score big time Brent.
GEFSSE_prec_snens_180.png
 
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Well from 240 until the end of the run it looks like the Gfs wants to keep some -NAO around .. but at the end of the run it still is holding onto that southeast ridge? Can anyone explain why this is happening ? That ridging off the west coast is too far away for a +PNA I’m guessing ?48500919-4EB7-4B19-8106-FE5EA438F1B1.jpeg
 
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