I'm predicting that for February, overall temps will be seasonal with some transitional warm and cold shots. The map below is the long term average from those years through the months Feb to April. I'm just using that map as an idea as to how the temps I think will turn out overall this month. I'm also using February, 1993 as an analog. During that year, the Southeastern US experienced average temps overall.
The map below is the 700mb mean geopotenital heights from Feb, 1993 and we could see a dominating pattern similar to the one back in 1993 of February. (The map is from Gerald Bell and Allan Basist.)
Signs continue to show that the STJ will remain active, so overall, I'm going with above normal precipitation for at least the next two weeks. The best bet for frozen precipitation would be for the higher elevations. I think it's going to be difficult for the area's outside of the mountains to get any type of winter storm. As long as the subtropical jet is amplified, the deep cold air would have a difficult time reaching south and east. That's not always the case, but factoring in the combination of an active southern branch and southeastern ridging, the "battle zone" sets up.
The ENSO is still neutral, and is projected to do so. Neutral ENSO conditions do have the characteristics of Nino conditions.
It's possible the pattern changes quickly just before spring, and arctic air plummets south and east and we just might score a good winter storm in March. In the mean time, the pattern still doesn't look all that good for deep long lasting cold or winter storms in the Southeastern US.
The map below is the 700mb mean geopotenital heights from Feb, 1993 and we could see a dominating pattern similar to the one back in 1993 of February. (The map is from Gerald Bell and Allan Basist.)
Signs continue to show that the STJ will remain active, so overall, I'm going with above normal precipitation for at least the next two weeks. The best bet for frozen precipitation would be for the higher elevations. I think it's going to be difficult for the area's outside of the mountains to get any type of winter storm. As long as the subtropical jet is amplified, the deep cold air would have a difficult time reaching south and east. That's not always the case, but factoring in the combination of an active southern branch and southeastern ridging, the "battle zone" sets up.
The ENSO is still neutral, and is projected to do so. Neutral ENSO conditions do have the characteristics of Nino conditions.
It's possible the pattern changes quickly just before spring, and arctic air plummets south and east and we just might score a good winter storm in March. In the mean time, the pattern still doesn't look all that good for deep long lasting cold or winter storms in the Southeastern US.
, this isagain close to big deal for us in eastern NC
