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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Gfs shows a solid setup for flooding, 850mb moisture transport from the SW ? Check
MUcape/elevated CAPE to help increase rates ? Check
Increased PWATS ? Check
ED66EB36-9A6F-449B-BA53-022898887D98.png
Also worth noting that the SER is coming back for that system next week, and the look at H5 is becoming more favorable for severe weather again, a bit similar to this one we just had
BA2A11C2-47F4-47FB-B37C-373C50B78731.gifB8FC7555-3FD2-4A87-90CF-1E5C9C61D61D.gif
 
GFS hr 216. Rain and 33 west of Raleigh. Coastal storm. No precip foothills/mtns where it could snow. Close.
 
CMC colder and throws more moisture west. Widespread sleet and ZR for central NC and west. Storm blows up out to sea. Weekend storm.
 
I don't know what will become of this--probably nothing--but for sure this is probably the best look we've seen all year at this range:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_27.png
 
Storm5 said:
Man if I lived in tenn and NC I’d be following the late week system next week . Get the southern stream to slow by like 12 hours to allow more northern stream and that’s a sizable winter storm


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The quintessential "thread-the-needle" scenario. Maybe, just maybe, we can get one threaded before it's too late.
 
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