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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Another comparison of 0Z to the brand new much colder 18Z GEFS:

0Z:
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18Z: much colder!
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you know this is a little whamby i guess but it appears the most accurate long range forecast is one that goes completely opposite of JB & GEFS lol. (sarc but a little truth in there?? haha) Im actually really little intrigued by this period now.
 
you know this is a little whamby i guess but it appears the most accurate long range forecast is one that goes completely opposite of JB & GEFS lol. (sarc but a little truth in there?? haha) Im actually really little intrigued by this period now.
JB is always wrong no matter which way he goes. I am skeptical of some great pattern showing up. But maybe serviceable based on teles alone. NAO stays positve like always, but the AO has a sharp fall to maybe near neutral. PNA looks to go positive in that timeframe and the MJO appears to be phases 6 and 7 which aren't horrible for cold in February and March.
 
Is the Euro also showing this cold?

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The 12Z Euro op was much colder in the 6-10 than its 0Z run. But the 12Z EPS was not cold. I'm hoping that the much colder 12Z Euro op is a signal that the EPS will also turn colder soon. Maybe this is one of those times when the EPS is slow to the party? Or is the GEFS rushing things too much even if a colder change is right? I don't know, but I'm loving seeing this today.
 
unbelievable rain totals here today. 3.97" since midnight and still raining. We will easily eclipse 4" before midnight. Crazy totals for a tropical system--this is freaking February.
 
In almost any other winter, this look would at least raise my interest--but not so much this time, at least not yet.

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