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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

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Gfs a little more aggressive Saturday on this run.


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GFS was close. High pressure built in a little too late. But this is nice. Real nice. Time it right and this is the setup that can bring some Deep South snow..as long as we’re not moving towards a coastal ??‍♂️
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We need about a 12-18 hour timing change here and this goes from praying for ending as a few flakes to woofgfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_30.png
 
The S/W needs to get a move on, it's too slow on the 0z GFS. By the time it gets kicked out, it becomes sheared and the northern stream press isn't pressing down, causing lack of cold air. There's going to be more changes with this, but it could have potential of becoming the "big brother" winter storm. gfs_z500_vort_us_23.png
 
Is it just me or are things starting to get revived again??? We’re beating back the SER and developing some good +PNA throw some big high pressures in there and we got ourselves some threats in the not so distant future .. what a change
 
SD said:
We need about a 12-18 hour timing change here and this goes from praying for ending as a few flakes to woofView attachment 33317
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There was a couple of EPS members that showed this. I haven’t looked at the hemispheric pattern on the ensembles in a couple of days so who knows how they get stuff like this. I’m still in full pout mode over this winter.

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WxWatch said:
The S/W needs to get a move on, it's too slow on the 0z GFS. By the time it gets kicked out, it becomes sheared and the northern stream press isn't pressing down, causing lack of cold air. There's going to be more changes with this, but it could have potential of becoming the "big brother" winter storm. View attachment 33318
Click to expand...
Shearing is fine here. If you kick that wave out as is we will be dealing with a miller b multiple type waa ugly system or just rain. Regardless of the wave thes bigger issue we are facing is getting the northern stream through, bringing the front in and dropping temps/dews quick enough/early enough to see a more widespread system. If that high is 12-18 hours fast you probably have more snow/ice much farther south.
 
KyloG said:
There was a couple of EPS members that showed this. I haven’t looked at the hemispheric pattern on the ensembles in a couple of days so who knows how they get stuff like this. I’m still in full pout mode over this winter.

View attachment 33322View attachment 33323
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More snow than some in New England after this storm... I’ll take yes for 300 please
 
KyloG said:
There was a couple of EPS members that showed this. I haven’t looked at the hemispheric pattern on the ensembles in a couple of days so who knows how they get stuff like this. I’m still in full pout mode over this winter.

View attachment 33322View attachment 33323
Click to expand...
I personally don't hate the setup. If we are going to have some SE ridge we might as well use it to our advantage and this is really the best setup to do so. I'm skeptical that we get the cold to arrive in time but at 7-9 days we know this will change.
 
i want to get excited about this new " turn of events " but i just know when i when i look tomorrow its totally flipped back to torch city
 
0Z GEFS is much warmer than the prior two runs in the SE 2/16+. No shocker there!
 
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