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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

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I love scrolling through the Canadian when colder air is forecasted off in the distance. It really likes to overdo it but man is it fun to look at #NerdConfessions 687F3301-9ECD-4979-8738-9E1F87ED9A58.jpeg
 

Nick_boynton_

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To further show the Euro output was much different than what the GFS was, here:

GFS:
View attachment 34215

EURO:
View attachment 34216
I mean honestly they are generally the same other than the euro taking over with that secondary wave and a little more snow for others in the south in that same shaped stripe .. general area of snow is the same
 

Shawn

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The 00z GEFS is an increase in moisture, a lot more, but warmer. Hence the snow maps. #rain

EDIT: Let me look closer, maybe that's not whats going on, irt surface temps.

Edit: The dupage maps are a bit anemic. The wxbell maps show more coverage on the mean. It's actually a notch cooler in areas at the surface vs 18z.
 
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Shawn

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I mean honestly they are generally the same other than the euro taking over with that secondary wave and a little more snow for others in the south in that same shaped stripe .. general area of snow is the same
The GFS has virtually no snow in AL, GA, MS, except favored zones. (like NE GA)
 

Forevertothee

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True but the GFS moved toward a solution like the EURO and Canadian. I think areas S Of 85 in the Upstate and the Northern Midlands are in play now. All three globals have shown a wintry threat for Georgia South Carolina and North Carolina, now. This is a first under day 7 this winter, correct?


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Shawn

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True but the GFS moved toward a solution like the EURO and Canadian. I think areas S Of 85 in the Upstate and the Northern Midlands are in play now. All three globals have shown a wintry threat for Georgia South Carolina and North Carolina, now. This is a first under day 7 this winter, correct?


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The 00z Euro will be coming soon, but overall, it's one of the better ensemble looks we have had on a reliable model for multiple runs in a while.
 

superjames1992

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I love scrolling through the Canadian when colder air is forecasted off in the distance. It really likes to overdo it but man is it fun to look at #NerdConfessionsView attachment 34214
Gotta love the -8 a hundred miles off in the Gulf. LMAO. RDU blows through their all time record low by over 10 degrees. Tallahassee sets the Florida all time record low by 7 degrees. modernweenie
 

Shawn

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GEFS is a herd of sheep and is extremely underdispersive (wildly flips run-run) & isn't exactly reliable even inside the medium range, I'd rather have EPS than GEFS support.
Has the GEFS even been upgraded to the new setup yet?
 

GaWx

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Lets try this again after my error regarding the 12Z Euro thinking it was going to be drier. The 0Z looks that way to me again because H5 is closer to W, which is drier. So, I expect less precip.

1581661716340.png
 

Ollie Williams

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After looking through each model run, the key to getting snow in the SE will be to have this wave coming down from Canada (in purple) be stronger. That will pull SW energy into East. This is a small detail, but other models are on the side of a weaker wave, so I’m going with that. Nonetheless this can change easily.
08CA15FF-1BCC-4789-8661-26E59F807F08.jpeg 58644F8B-70E9-45EA-8E0C-BE87C8E84F03.jpeg 815BA9FA-5BA5-440F-8F9A-E9A28ED46D52.jpeg
 

Webberweather53

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The differences between the most recent 0z and yesterday's 12z Euro run are pretty trivial in a general sense for being 7-8 days out, don't become too overwhelmed & concerned w/ details (i.e. snow output), the signal for a storm is generally still there. This EPS suite however is not impressive at all and that's much more meaningful.
 

Jon

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After looking through each model run, the key to getting snow in the SE will be to have this wave coming down from Canada (in purple) be stronger. That will pull SW energy into East. This is a small detail, but other models are on the side of a weaker wave, so I’m going with that. Nonetheless this can change easily.
View attachment 34228View attachment 34229View attachment 34230
That helps, but it may more to do with the feature just north of cali stretching to Washington state. That energy has been on the modeling that leaves the ULL out west. The stronger that is and more west it is, the less likely the northern stream can take it with it. It may be a combination of the two, but the GFS model run a few days ago without the energy feature west was still snow here


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Jon

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It didn’t completely throw it away, but is much worse.



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Ollie,

Do you have the last 3 runs of the EPS 500mb vorticity centered on 12z 2/21? I don’t have access to those maps. I would appreciate it!


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