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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
it’s a good thing the gfs changed that H5 pattern... because at one point it looked prime for more bad severe weather, it’s now trending towards a winter storm look with a Canada vortex and a SW in Mexico, hopefully it doesn’t go back 
We’ve got some wiggle room up here..if you like ice
Jessy89
Member
If we can’t get a snow storm before winters end. I’ll accept ice it’s so beautiful in the trees.
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The euro from 192-216 isn't terrible to try to capitalize on an actual arctic high and what's left of the se ridge STJ before it gets shut off briefly
pcbjr
Member
Larry,
The important thing is that the models shows this less than 10 days out; if we have some run to run consistency for another 48 to 72, even with some up and down fluctuations, it could be very interesting.
As always, Thanks for all of your input!
Best!
Phil
It’s just too far out. Too much time for it to trend to cold rain. I wanna see runs of no ice or snow. I wanna see major cold. With that said, pattern looks interesting to squeeze something out of this winter.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Wow, terrible for everyone East of the Mighty Mississippi, maybe the worst I've seen. Also looks terrible for the Sierra Navadas, who depend on snow melt for water. That's not a good thing come summer.
Can it be right? Lmao
Jessy89
Member
I’ll be honest the trends have definitely been looking up as of recent ... Gfs completely flipped on the massive trough out west .. now has a major ridge in the same spot .. will help our chances down the line
pcbjr
Member
Keep that movie reel spinning, Larry!
Jessy89
Member
Crazy gfs already lost the ice for the 16th lol
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Actually a better look imo..for a snow setup with coastal low. And under 240hrs. Just need moisture thrown back west. Less of an ice setup. I see 1 or 2 potentials there for snow vs rain.
I think that the most important hint from the last 3 GFS runs is the loss of the strong SER starting midmonth. Prior runs weren't doing that. Is this for real? Well, from what I've learned, if we can get rid of the now returning -AAM, it would have a decent chance at least because that partially correlates to SER.
Also, this run is again very close to wintry in parts of the SE near midmonth+.
Also, this run is again very close to wintry in parts of the SE near midmonth+.
Winston-Salem West into the foothills below freezing with strong developing storm at the coast. Should be some interesting ensembles under 240hrs. Largely a snow setup for western NC and central not far off.
The major trend to colder on the models continues with the 18Z GEFS
00Z GEFS (by the way, even this 0Z GEFS and the run before it were already trending much colder to the prior runs meaning the big colder trend has been ongoing for 5 straight runs!)
Now the much colder 18Z GEFS:
00Z GEFS (by the way, even this 0Z GEFS and the run before it were already trending much colder to the prior runs meaning the big colder trend has been ongoing for 5 straight runs!)
Now the much colder 18Z GEFS:
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