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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Clem282340 said:
What’s your thoughts on the upstate getting snow this weekend
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Kinda rate dependent, if your get heavier rates you could drag cooler air to cool down the BL, I’d say areas around the upstate could see some wet snow mixed in the rain for now, altho this ain’t isothermal soundings, this is more BL issues which is honestly what I would rather have in my opinion vs having a sounding that’s isothermal and could easily go wrong
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Kinda rate dependent, if your get heavier rates you could drag cooler air to cool down the BL, I’d say areas around the upstate could see some wet snow mixed in the rain for now, altho this ain’t isothermal soundings, this is more BL issues which is honestly what I would rather have in my opinion vs having a sounding that’s isothermal and could easily go wrong
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Almost the same exact setup as last weeks surprise

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Bsud said:
Almost the same exact setup as last weeks surprise
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Gonna have to disagree here. I want it to snow but this looks much dryer and rate of precip should be less. Last week had heavy rates and bright banding. This does not look the same to me.
 
I’m favoring the CMC look which did well on lasts week snow. Some snow for the mountains and no snow East of the mtns. For this weekend. I hope I’m wrong twice but this looks nothing like last weekend with all the heavy widespread moisture to work with.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Gonna have to disagree here. I want it to snow but this looks much dryer and rate of precip should be less. Last week had heavy rates and bright banding. This does not look the same to me.
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You do understand that "bright banding" is not necessarily heavy precip. It comes from melting hydrometers in the cloud layer which cause clumping of snowflakes. This can be seen with light to moderate precip rates.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
You do understand that "bright banding" is not necessarily heavy precip. It comes from melting hydrometers in the cloud layer which cause clumping of snowflakes. This can be seen with light to moderate precip rates.
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Yes. I’m just thinking there is no comparison with last weekend from what I’ve seen. Last week took advantage of the heavier widespread rates. Not gonna have that this time around outside of the mountain counties. Foothills won’t be included in this setup IMO.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
Yes. I’m just thinking there is no comparison with last weekend from what I’ve seen. Last week took advantage of the heavier widespread rates. Not gonna have that this time around outside of the mountain counties. Foothills won’t be included in this setup IMO.
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This time the BL is colder. You won't need rates to cool it down. If we get any precip at all, it will be snow for the foothills. The only thing that I am concerned about is the lack of QPF.
 
North Georgia looks more favored for light snow with less downslope. But just to the north east, I wouldn’t be surprised to see everything dry up from Charlotte to just east of Greensboro. I don’t have ICON soundings I just looked at GFS and this system is not very wet sounding compared to last week. Temps are doable with timing but looks like a question of (quality(rates) and quantity) of moisture as CAD said above.
 
The angle and development of moisture also disfavors the NC piedmont areas esp where Frosty is in Mount Airy. I guess I’ll root for north Georgia and southwestern NC as this area is slightly better positioned in this setup IMO.
 
BirdManDoomW said:
The angle and development of moisture also disfavors the NC piedmont areas esp where Frosty is in Mount Airy. I guess I’ll root for north Georgia and southwestern NC as this area is slightly better positioned in this setup IMO.
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9 times out of 10 if N GA gets it, North of 85 in the upstate gets it as well

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