Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

[BIG FROSTY]

I know it is the horribly inaccurate CFS and it may reek of desperation to post it, but here it is anyway:View attachment 33147

Post on Larry, at least it's a pretty blue instead of RED like we've seen since spring started in December............................... And most want admit it but deep down on the inside of our winter weenie it gives us a glimmer of hope until reality sets in ?

 

[Brent]

So glad I chased because this is all too similar to the last few years for Dallas lol first it was NW now it's SE

 

[superjames1992]

I know it is the horribly inaccurate CFS and it may reek of desperation to post it, but here it is anyway:View attachment 33147

A broken clock is right twice a day......so my chips are in.

 

[Clem282340]

What does the oz grefs looking like from this weekend snow

 

[superjames1992]

FYI, there’s a thread for this weekends possible snow event:

Wintry - February 7-8 Winter storm

Latest GEFS

southernwx.com

 

[olhausen]

I’m definitely a little excited to get some snow on the ground even if it isn’t a big one. I’ve been following this for days and it is actually trending better as we get closer which is rare these days.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

The Icon is really ramping things up even for upstate.

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Isn't 18z 3pm? That would the worst time of day for NEGA/Upstate. I would feel better if it were a nighttime/ early morning time.

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

9 times out of 10 if N GA gets it, North of 85 in the upstate gets it as well

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Be careful here; remember that the mtns of NEGA are higher than the upstate which leaves us prone to down slope drying, especially in light QPF or rate scenarios. Plus the cold air takes longer to filter down to us.

 

[tennessee storm]

I’m definitely a little excited to get some snow on the ground even if it isn’t a big one. I’ve been following this for days and it is actually trending better as we get closer which is rare these days.

You mean snow is becoming rare these days... i fixed it for you

 

[GaWx]

What is this blue stuff?



The next day, ZR in CAD areas: where is this coming from? A drunk GFS?

 

[GaWx]

6Z GEFS will also come in colder than prior runs midmonth it appears from earlier maps based on much less SER. Buyer beware!

Edit: Actually, the last 3 runs have been coming in colder than each respective prior run.

 

[Storm5]

If you love rain the next 7 days is for you !!!

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[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Over 3 inches of rain here already. Adding up quickly.

 

[Stormdoc]

6Z GEFS will also come in colder than prior runs midmonth it appears from earlier maps based on much less SER. Buyer beware!

Edit: Actually, the last 3 runs have been coming in colder than each respective prior run.
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Is this the colder you are talking about? I am struggling to find much cold anywhere.

 

[SD]

Dont sleep on the 14th-21st..classic set up for +500mb heights but - surface temp anomalies

 

[snowlover91]

On my way in to work this AM I saw two wrecks which had recently happened due to hydroplaning on the wet roads. One person was out of his car and several people were performing CPR on him while waiting for an ambulance and police cars to arrive. Folks make sure you take it easy on the wet roads, hydroplaning is a big issue when traveling on interstate.

 

[tennessee storm]

Dont sleep on the 14th-21st..classic set up for +500mb heights but - surface temp anomalies

Cpc sure not buying in on that timeframe ... severe weather may have to Be watched closely during that time period be honest ...

 

[SD]

Cpc sure not buying in on that timeframe ... severe weather may have to Be watched closely during that time period be honest ...

Gefs and geps are both slightly below normal

 

[GaWx]

To @Stormdoc these are the changes in the 6Z GEFS vs the 18Z GEFS for both the 6-10 and 11-15 day periods:

 

[GaWx]

GEFS AO forecast: still going for a record breaking high AO of +6.0 ~2/10 followed by a sharp drop:



Meanwhile, after a drop to a -PNA it is going for a rise to possibly a +PNA in ~10 days: