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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Bsud said:
18z GFS looks like its wanting to bring something back in next weekend.

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That time frame serves watching. The GFS is the most aboard next to the ICON. The Euro looks like it's similar but much drier. There's too much going on with the timing of the energy waves but we will know if it can do something when we get closer. It might not be much but if something comes out of it, it's better than nothing.
 
Sooner or latter, the pendellum will swing back folks. Been a rough streak for everyone, glad to see guys cash in today. Was nice to see those big wet paste bomb flakes falling for a fleeting moment today.

1993 I was up in the mtns and we had been in a snow drought imo. Got a 3 or 4 incher in sw mtns that Feb midway, 1st time in a long while. Then that March storm was being talked about 5 days out on the weather channel and news. Remarkable the AVN saw it. Thats the gfs now days I beleive.
 
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Shawn said:
How in the world did this thread become an observation thread for an event that is happening in January?

Please do better guys!

Edit: For the next event, please make a thread for it and observations instead of the pattern thread for another month.
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I’m so confused to see nearly 600 new posts in the February thread. It’s January everyone!!!


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Jon said:
I’m so confused to see nearly 600 new posts in the February thread. It’s January everyone!!!


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Jon,
It's just been that sort of season ... confusing ... (in a word) ...
Best!
Phil
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Here's a preliminary map of today's "surprise" snow event in NC. Southern mountains were the big winners w/ 3-4" of snow reported near Hendersonville. As always, I want to say thanks to everyone for sending their pics and backyard observations, that definitely helped in making this map.


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What exactly constitutes a trace? Snow falling? Or a mix of heavy rain and even the slightest IP for one second?

I was in southern Granville from 9-6 and saw no mixing. Even tried to verify on CC radar (which I saw definite mixing) and every time I thought there would be some I went outside, nothing. Just rain. Not sure a trace verified there but I could have missed it. I saw Allans reports of snow near his house so the map would make sense. Just wondering what it looked like lol


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Jon said:
What exactly constitutes a trace? Snow falling? Or a mix of heavy rain and even the slightest IP for one second?

I was in southern Granville from 9-6 and saw no mixing. Even tried to verify on CC radar (which I saw definite mixing) and every time I thought there would be some I went outside, nothing. Just rain. Not sure a trace verified there but I could have missed it. I saw Allans reports of snow near his house so the map would make sense. Just wondering what it looked like lol


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A trace of snow or sleet is snow &/or sleet literally falling from the sky but not sticking to the ground. I saw a few mPING reports of sleet mixed w/ rain in Granville & Vance counties and trace amounts of wintry precipitation would be spatially and temporally consistent with other (numerous) reports in Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, & Wake counties just to the south where snow & sleet definitely mixed in and the environment was less supportive of snow & sleet.
 
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Webberweather53 said:
A trace of snow or sleet is snow &/or sleet literally falling from the sky but not sticking to the ground. I saw a few mPING reports of sleet mixed w/ rain in Granville & Vance counties and trace amounts of wintry precipitation would be spatially and temporally consistent with other (numerous) reports in Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, & Wake counties just to the south where snow & sleet definitely mixed in and the environment was less supportive of snow & sleet.
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Oh ok. If I could read your scale below I’d answer my own question, but thanks!


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Webberweather53 said:
A trace of snow or sleet is snow &/or sleet literally falling from the sky but not sticking to the ground. I saw a few mPING reports of sleet mixed w/ rain in Granville & Vance counties and trace amounts of wintry precipitation would be spatially and temporally consistent with other (numerous) reports in Franklin, Durham, Orange, Alamance, & Wake counties just to the south where snow & sleet definitely mixed in and the environment was less supportive of snow & sleet.
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The biggest issue I come to find w/ snowfall records (especially earlier in the available record) are non-reporting bias(es) during these marginal-extremely low impact events where there's little-no sleet accumulation and/or the amount is so insignificant it's either missed or simply not reported by voluntary observers, or denoted as "sleet mixed w/ rain, trace snow, etc in the comments section of reports without any official recording of a "T" of snow or sleet (& not to mention other potential errors with automated sites).

All-in-all, the observed records for "trace" snow events (even at some official reporting sites) are often unreliable due to the poor detectability of the wintry precipitation (snow/sleet not falling long enough or amounting to enough to be noticed) and observer or instrumentation error.

Hence, these types of storms which occur the most frequently in the southern US are also poorly underrepresented.
 
After playing in the 3 inches of snow near tuxedo/Hendersonville. I got a room in Maggie Valley I want pancakes tomorrow yum!
5b8fb9841acf7da53ba832edd5a1e3b3.jpg



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