Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

[Brick Tamland]

Still bombing Eastern NC at this hour. December 2018 the Euro bullseyed me with 30+ inches 96 hours out. I ended up with 2 inches from the storm. View attachment 34054

00z EPS backs up the op! Nice mean this far out...My eyes can’t unsee this...

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Well, I guess winter isn't dead yet. Glad I decided to check in here today. I didn't expect to see this. Good thing is the Euro is showing this in the long range. This winter whenever we had a storm show up in the long range that didn't happen it was the GFS showing it while the Euro had zilch. I'd much rather have the Euro lead the way. Maybe this is the one we have been waiting for all winter.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Here you go.

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Wow, I counted 10 big dogs for NC and areas to the south.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Energy is feeling much more of a tug this run. Might get pulled out before it cuts off

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Gonna cutoff but much better

 

[GaWx]

The major H5 changes for this timeframe vs just a couple of days ago are astoundingly great!

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

View attachment 34084Gonna cutoff but much better

definitely a good trend here

 

[SnowNiner]

So for my educational purposes, where is the cold air coming from on the Euro/EPS? I see the highs, which aren't very strong. So why is it so cold (at least the 850s)? No -EPO, no -NAO vortex. PNA is weak. I see the SPV is on our side of the globe but not that close. Is the storm phasing the northern stream pulling it down?

 

[GaWx]

Too dry H5 flow for SE storm at least initially. needs to be WSW not W. But let's see what happens later in the run.

 

[ForsythSnow]

Ended this flood with 3.75" in the rain gauge, which puts us at just under 9" for the month. 4.75" from the last flood plus the 3.75" plus the .4 to .3 from the snow. How much can we get?

 

[tennessee storm]

Much better run for upper south back west ... Memphis area gets on a nice over running precip with mostly snow

 

[Storm5]

Obviously for a big system we want the energy to come out of the SW be even if it does not there will still be an overrunning chance as some energy strings along through the southern branch

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[Myfrotho704_]

Like what the gfs is showing given its bias to hold things back and/or suppress flow

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Curious to see if euro pulls the energy out again at 12z. Certainly seen gfs have tendency to over do cutoffs in the Southwest before.

 

[deltadog03]

The silly thing is, the 1 model who has the worst bias (of leaving energy back there) the euro actually kicks it out. We shall see what happens at 12z. Prob a big SE ridge. Lmao

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Now the GFS has popped two more mini ULL’s and is trying to hang them back over South Dakota and Wyoming ? what a mess

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

I would much rather have the euro showing us the goods than the Gfs ... Gfs always wrong at this range .. euro always sniffs out the patterns and sticks to its guns usually so the rest of the 12z data will be interesting

 

[SD]

73/65 storms knocking on the door

 

[GaWx]

I'd love if someone could find a source for 500mb historic data back to 73'. The Penn State E-Wall only goes back to 79, darn it.

I think.. possibly.. I may know a source, actually. I will post back if I find it.

LibGuides: Weather and Climate Collections: U.S. Daily Weather Maps

LibGuides: Weather and Climate Collections: U.S. Daily Weather Maps

library.noaa.gov

 

[GaWx]

Shoud be some interesting 12Z GEFS members for 2/21-22 (ZR):