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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

12Z Euro maps suggest to me that there won't be a SE winter storm on this run. Hope that that is wrong.

Edit: but it looks to be close!
Vort maps still look good to me. Given I’m only out to hour 150. Maybe no fantasy storm late in the run but looks pretty good
 
prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png

Precip is starting to break out in Texas at 150 hours.
 
We do seem to be stuck in a very repetitive pattern since November. We have rain today, we had rain last Thursday, and this is showing up for next Thursday. Hard to break the pattern this winter. As long as we have the cold this time, I think there is a legit shot of this happening next week.
 
It's either going to end up (future runs) spinning pieces of energy out for a long duration overrunning event or cutoff completely and hold back leaving us high and dry.
 
It's either going to end up (future runs) spinning pieces of energy out for a long duration overrunning event or cutoff completely and hold back leaving us high and dry.

If you take the wet pattern we have been in since November, I'd put my money on having precip instead of being left high and dry. Precip hasn't been lacking at all this winter.
 
Note how much snow there is from a very weak surface low that hardly even closes. Many of the bigest SE snow were associated with very weak low pressure/overrunning. This one is 1019-20 mb:

View attachment 34120
Most of the SE, but some of us up in central and eastern NC could benefit from a coastal bomb.
 
It’s going to have to be a weak wave to put both sides of the mountains in play. No way around that
 
It's either going to end up (future runs) spinning pieces of energy out for a long duration overrunning event or cutoff completely and hold back leaving us high and dry.

With as wet as it's been this Winter with systems coming through at least every couple of days, I'd bet on the long duration event?
 
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