D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Still alot if ways to fail on there
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
no doubt....a few members show that possibility, but honestly tell me that last time we had a little OP and ENS support this "fake winter"
A lot of y’all won’t like what I’m about to say, but I’ve been feeling a member 05 vibe since yesterday. Weak overrunning wave shoved south. Sharp
cutoff to the north. Much like January 2011. The coastal does give my area cause for concern though, because there’s usually no trending away from a coastal. The good thing is that the Euro has both at 12z..so who knows
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Agree with you. Consistency is the biggest key right now. Wait and see...
I am pretty sure we haven't had back to back Euro runs show a massive Winter storm in the semi long range basically in the same area this Winter.
Storm5
Member
Only 13 more( counting 00z and 12z runs only ) left until go time ....
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
and thats what scares me!
It is now only 15 at O'hare, 14 at STL, and 0 at Minneapolis! As recently as a week ago today, this cold air wasn't even shown to come down into the US! And this next cold air coming down next week was hardly there just 3 days ago!
olhausen
Member
Nope you’re not the only one. But honestly keep this baby south for another few days and if the northern trend starts Middle Tennessee could be golden.
MichaelJ
Member
Well for my area, there are two ways of looking at these two storms. 1st way is for pessimists who will note the first one is too far South for us, and the 2nd one too far East and we get skunked. 2nd way is for optimists because both will trend NW as they are won't to do this far out.
I don’t. We don’t get squat.
olhausen
Member
Sitting at 39 here in northern Tennessee and supposed to drop in the teens tonight. Won’t get much above freezing tomorrow if at all. Maybe we are heading for a February 2015 type finish to winter.
Jacksonville, FL, was at 88 as of 3 PM!! That ties the all-time record high for all of met winter with 3 other days, the last one being way back in 1962!
Savannah had a record high yesterday of 84 and is having another today of at least 85! Only 5 met winter highs on record have been warmer than 85 (86-87) and all of those were on or after 2/16!
Savannah had a record high yesterday of 84 and is having another today of at least 85! Only 5 met winter highs on record have been warmer than 85 (86-87) and all of those were on or after 2/16!
That’s a great point... if I remember correctly January 1988 was around 1020
Well, Chris Justus already started the storm thread..winter storm cancel? ?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Rah NWS says flooding could be bigger concerns
Some early hints that the boundary may end up stalling
in vicinity of the Carolinas becoming nearly west to east oriented.
If this scenario were to occur, flooding type concerns may arise by
the end of next week.
Some early hints that the boundary may end up stalling
in vicinity of the Carolinas becoming nearly west to east oriented.
If this scenario were to occur, flooding type concerns may arise by
the end of next week.
Snowed In
Member
That met must post or monitor this board?
Stormsfury
Member
And only deepened to 1016mb exiting off. It was a vast boundary which stalled with a weak low traversing the front which led to the 1988 winter storm
Just border line irresponsible in my opinion. Weird stuff.
Euro Bleaklies: good news overall
- week 2: much colder by about 4-5 F vs Mon run with BN now but we already knew that based on much colder 2 week model runs last 2 days.
- weeks 3-4: colder by ~2 F with near normal vs AN Monday run
- weeks 5-6: way too far out to care but they are AN fwiw
- week 2: much colder by about 4-5 F vs Mon run with BN now but we already knew that based on much colder 2 week model runs last 2 days.
- weeks 3-4: colder by ~2 F with near normal vs AN Monday run
- weeks 5-6: way too far out to care but they are AN fwiw
February 12th, 2010 and January 9th and 10th, 2011 as well.
The former was well tracked for 10 days while the latter was at least 7 days.
Last edited:
Nice leaps of victory, something may happen this run 
18Z GFS colder and closer call with what appears to be some light snow in some places but the H5 flow needs to be a more moist WSW and not this pretty dry W to WNW. Nothing big on this run but at least it is closer for the first wave
Now let's see if there is a 2nd wave later.
Now let's see if there is a 2nd wave later.
GSP biting ever so slightly...
but would be falling into cold-enough
air to bring some wintry precip. The fcst for Wed nite and Thursday
splits the difference, keeping a 20/30 pct chance of precip with
a p-type of mostly rain, but with a high elevation snow. As you
can imagine, this part of the fcst may change quite a bit between
now and then.
GFS moving in the wrong direction? ??
Let’s see if we can leave it cut off over Hawaii at 00z..
Let’s see if we can leave it cut off over Hawaii at 00z..
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Clearly they meant as a result of melting snow.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Actually it might not be. I just needs to shake that low formation off. The last Euro run put that formation off the coast of N Cal so it's in the right direction.GFS moving in the wrong direction? ??
Am I wrong in thinking that big low cutoff in the SW won’t matter as long as this little piece in the southern branch comes in juicy with some weak overrunning?
Jessy89
Member
Honestly when was the last time the GFS has been reliable. The only question is will the Euro continue to show it the next run. Or will it go Poof? Time will tell but GFS I don’t trust at all.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Well, that's more than the pretty much nothing on the last 3 GFS runs. So, it is an improvement for that model.
Cary_Snow95
Member
If I had to guess I think the gfs is moving through the northern energy and the trough to quickly. This allows the shortwave to get left behind and cutoff. If you watch the last few runs you can see it slowing the trough
ATLwxfan
Member
GFS hinted at last weekend’s surprise event about 5 or 6 days out. It’s not totally unreliable.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Here are the daily HDDs for the E US from the new (2/13) Euro Weeklies in the far left column alongside those from the prior run (2/10) on the right side. Focus on the 2 HDD columns. Look how much colder they got today for 2/20-3, especially 2/20-1 which each increased by a whopping 11 HDDs! 11 degrees colder on those days over just a 3 day span of models is amongst the most rapid increases in week 2 you'll ever see. And, of course, that's why we suddenly now have a winter storm threat to follow for 2/21-2 vs none of the sort as of just 2-3 days ago.
Also, note that 2/26-3/3 are also quite a bit colder vs the Monday run:
�
Also, note that 2/26-3/3 are also quite a bit colder vs the Monday run:
�
| Date | HDD | HDD 30Y Climo | HDD 30Y Diff | CDD | CDD 30Y Climo | CDD 30Y Diff | HDD | CDD |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ECMWF-Weeklies | 2020-02-13 | |||||||
| 2020-02-13 | 23.20 | 25.07 | -1.87 | 1.54 | 0.35 | 1.19 | 20.29 | 1.51 |
| 2020-02-14 | 34.62 | 24.90 | 9.72 | 0.72 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 32.78 | 0.73 |
| 2020-02-15 | 34.02 | 24.72 | 9.30 | 0.58 | 0.37 | 0.21 | 33.26 | 0.58 |
| 2020-02-16 | 23.73 | 24.55 | -0.82 | 0.74 | 0.38 | 0.36 | 23.8 | 0.8 |
| 2020-02-17 | 20.52 | 24.35 | -3.83 | 0.99 | 0.38 | 0.61 | 18.09 | 1.08 |
| 2020-02-18 | 17.18 | 24.16 | -6.98 | 1.38 | 0.39 | 0.99 | 18.02 | 1.21 |
| 2020-02-19 | 23.71 | 23.98 | -0.27 | 1.28 | 0.39 | 0.89 | 20.95 | 1.09 |
| 2020-02-20 | 33.39 | 23.80 | 9.59 | 0.59 | 0.40 | 0.19 | 21.92 | 0.8 |
| 2020-02-21 | 32.14 | 23.59 | 8.55 | 0.33 | 0.41 | -0.08 | 20.74 | 0.62 |
| 2020-02-22 | 26.48 | 23.39 | 3.09 | 0.22 | 0.41 | -0.19 | 19.99 | 0.55 |
| 2020-02-23 | 23.26 | 23.18 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 0.42 | -0.29 | 20.76 | 0.49 |
| 2020-02-24 | 21.42 | 22.97 | -1.55 | 0.19 | 0.43 | -0.24 | 22.11 | 0.37 |
| 2020-02-25 | 19.84 | 22.75 | -2.91 | 0.40 | 0.43 | -0.03 | 21.35 | 0.37 |
| 2020-02-26 | 22.43 | 22.52 | -0.09 | 0.33 | 0.43 | -0.10 | 21.05 | 0.43 |
| 2020-02-27 | 25.25 | 22.31 | 2.94 | 0.31 | 0.44 | -0.13 | 23.28 | 0.42 |
| 2020-02-28 | 25.20 | 22.09 | 3.11 | 0.33 | 0.46 | -0.13 | 24.63 | 0.41 |
| 2020-02-29 | 26.60 | 22.09 | 4.51 | 0.34 | 0.46 | -0.12 | 24.66 | 0.44 |
| 2020-03-01 | 26.64 | 21.87 | 4.77 | 0.35 | 0.46 | -0.11 | 24.77 | 0.44 |
| 2020-03-02 | 25.91 | 21.64 | 4.27 | 0.36 | 0.47 | -0.11 | 23.15 | 0.4 |
| 2020-03-03 | 24.31 | 21.41 | 2.90 | 0.42 | 0.49 | -0.07 | 22.94 | 0.42 |
Last edited:
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
Gefs looks improved to my untrained eyes
Scary setup but one that can certainly produce a multiple wave winter event. The release of the wave out west and its interaction with the trough in the Rockies will obviously make or break the event. This could easily go toward a cutter or a ho him rain event arriving after the high moves out. This has been the event we are looking for though where the SE ridge becomes a benefit versus a hindrance.
D
