• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Matthew70 said:
Anything past 5-6 days will not happen. Models are pretty useless after those days. I would bet it will be a different look next model run. Also the cold advertised will be at least 10 degrees warmer. One thing we all should have learned last few years. Cold don’t verify like models show in long range.
Click to expand...
I see what your saying and I agree, but the cold that Larry has been mentioning here lately has been getting colder with he runs. I can see a legit cold spell here soon
 
GFS was very close for something amazing but it fails to kick the energy fast enough.
 
I believe this little piece of energy entering Baja is what sets everything off. Something to watch over the next couple of days 6BDB88D7-C498-4C24-A043-29D4936F5C0D.jpeg
 
Something is clearly being sniffed out by the models right now .. all we can do is wait and see how we trend .. trend is clear right now and that’s that these blooming trees and budding flowers will die soon
 
Storm5 said:
Gfs is oh so close
9f9722147be91cb2689da4c979104890.png
4e904d70876913e1ac3e999ebcedcddd.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Move the wave over Iowa to the Tx/Ok panhandle and take your chances.
 
While they are dwindling, I would say the chance for snow in the piedmont of N.C. is still pretty good judging it snowed last April here. I’m cautiously optimistic that we still have enough time to see more than a trace.
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Something is clearly being sniffed out by the models right now .. all we can do is wait and see how we trend .. trend is clear right now and that’s that these blooming trees and budding flowers will die soon
Click to expand...

The mild nights is what set them off.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
  • Like
Reactions: SD
Matthew70 said:
Anything past 5-6 days will not happen. Models are pretty useless after those days. I would bet it will be a different look next model run. Also the cold advertised will be at least 10 degrees warmer. One thing we all should have learned last few years. Cold don’t verify like models show in long range.
Click to expand...

December 2018 says hi.
 
Broken024 said:
Yea i think February 2014 was from like 8 to 9 days out if I remember correctly. It does happen
Click to expand...

March 2015. My wedding date was March 28th and the lead up was warm in the 70s. About 7 or 8 days out a cold front started showing up with a huge crash in temps. The night before the front hit and we got married on the waterfront of the Nuese river with NW winds gusting to 35 and temps in the 40s. When its unpleasant results they will be right 2 weeks out.
 
Shaggy said:
March 2015. My wedding date was March 28th and the lead up was warm in the 70s. About 7 or 8 days out a cold front started showing up with a huge crash in temps. The night before the front hit and we got married on the waterfront of the Nuese river with NW winds gusting to 35 and temps in the 40s. When its unpleasant results they will be right 2 weeks out.
Click to expand...
March 2015 first week I got 6 inches snow ...
 
Webberweather53 said:
December 2018 says hi.
Click to expand...
January 2011 was one I remember being extremely well modeled. A well entrenched H with a healthy s/w and not a lot of energy flying around is easy enough for the models to handle. These fast flowing patterns and all this energy everywhere is not easy task for anyone or any model to decipher
 
that Type of pattern tho is 10x better than what we’re dealing with now, and you have a decent shot to score with that pattern, given the active STJ
 
Dennis could rival some of the most intense North Atlantic storms in terms of lowest sea-level pressure. Some highly anomalous events happening this week has wrecked the models! Might not get a sensible run till 12z Monday.
 
I am not as smart as some, but also the mjo moving toward the cod and perhaps phase 8 or close to it can also help. That would suck to go from rain and not cold enough to cold and no precip in site. ?
 
Last edited by a moderator:
Mr. Golf said:
I am not as smart as some, but also the mjo moving toward the cod and perhaps phase 8 or close to it can also help. That would suck moose balls to go from rain and not cold enough to cold and no precip in site. ?
Click to expand...
Hey Kevin, I don’t know if you are familiar with this site but It does have 500mb composites to MJO phases. https://www.americanwx.com/raleighwx/MJO/MJO.html

From looking at phase 8 in February, one could see that it has an outcome almost too good to be true for this winter.3033572D-4FA5-4431-AE81-022169903516.gif
Although, phase 8 in March is a bit less extreme andI wouldn’t say that it would create an extreme outcome. I don’t think the look is too bullish
and I wouldn’t be too upset working with something in the middle.
82E11FE8-896D-4FDB-B832-7FE569ACCCA6.gif
 
GFS went from 8 inches to an inch here so there's that

Looks like rain on every frame

b25bf685-8e5a-4981-9077-27f31a74166e.gif
 
Last edited:
Six Mile Wx said:
Dennis could rival some of the most intense North Atlantic storms in terms of lowest sea-level pressure. Some highly anomalous events happening this week has wrecked the models! Might not get a sensible run till 12z Monday.
Click to expand...

Yeah 916 is pretty low.

d49162a5eedebeb1a20fcd5dce086b2c.jpg



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top