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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

I’ve seen a lot worse. No complaints with this look but I’m struggling to see the end game here. The progression depicted by the GFS verbatim is unachievable. We’re either possibly working towards a coastal/late bloomer or some overrunning west of the mountains. Not both..and maybe not either ??‍♂️..GFS in the medium to LR is bad (worse than most) about trying to do way too much at one time. I think that’s why it tends to spit out these storms that translate from one side of the mountains to the other and that just isn’t reality C9123B02-14B2-431D-B444-639A66870E3A.png
 
Both gfs and the cmc are trying to get some winter weather going mid next week in the Midsouth area.
 
Split flow with a big ridge going up into AK. Wave of interest dives down out of Anchorage. All of this occurring while a big sprawling mid 1040 high pressure dominates the lower 48. I mean, it’s not nothing.
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This was another lowkey missed opportunity that’s trending in the right direction late, wow lol
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Holy moly, look at how much colder is the 0Z Euro!

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Look at how cold is most of the US now. Not too long ago, the bulk of the US was warm at the same time. Something is a changing.

Notice the common them of these colder models: the SER is giving way instead of being stubborn!
 
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Noticing models want to pop a +PNA but keep a nuetral to +EPO, meh
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It doesn't matter much imo as the E US is still much colder due to a +PNA, which has a higher correlation to SE cold than a -EPO. For one thing, a +PNA kills the SER. A -EPO sometimes is no match for a SER. A -EPO without a +PNA typically sucks.
 
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WxWatch said:
I agree with the precip output. I can tell by looking at it, we're going to see a change with storm tracks, more Gulf of Mexico activity, and coastal lows. The initial prediction of the blizzard I'm predicting, I put the main low developing south/WSW of Jamaica -- the main low may form a bit further north towards Cuba. Keep in mind, with predictions there is margin of error, just like what computer models have as well.

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Could there be a blizzard in Alabama? Oh please say yes!!
 
WxWatch said:
I agree with the precip output. I can tell by looking at it, we're going to see a change with storm tracks, more Gulf of Mexico activity, and coastal lows. The initial prediction of the blizzard I'm predicting, I put the main low developing south/WSW of Jamaica -- the main low may form a bit further north towards Cuba. Keep in mind, with predictions there is margin of error, just like what computer models have as well.

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Please keep any talk of the so called “ blizzard “ you are predicting in the whammy thread . There is absolutely nothing from a meteorological standpoint that comes close to supporting your prediction. We have people that come here looking for actual information about the weather and we don’t want to fill the main thread with something as extreme as what you are talking about that has no support Thanks


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FallsLake said:
The 6z GFS is still showing a potential storm for ~day 8. The 0z Canadian was close. The euro says no, but it does have a system in the SW which could change to a more favorable look in the next few runs.
6z GFS at ~day 8:
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The gfs has been good with picking up the storms but pretty bad getting the temps right. It has shown several fantasy storms this year and until we can get some other guidance onboard I'm just gonna assume the gfs is wrong again.
 
FallsLake said:
The 6z GFS is still showing a potential storm for ~day 8. The 0z Canadian was close. The euro says no, but it does have a system in the SW which could change to a more favorable look in the next few runs.
6z GFS at ~day 8:
View attachment 33948
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Most NWP, including the GFS, Euro, & CMC pop a shortwave ridge over the southern Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW around this time period, even though the SE US ridge is still there, it’s a pattern that we can work with given how active the southern stream is and the propensity for a TPV lobe to sitting over and south of the Hudson Bay.

The taller western ridge, stronger Hudson Bay vortex, & slightly weaker SE ridge on the GFS are the difference makers. While the euro isn’t verbatim showing a snowstorm, their patterns definitely aren’t worlds apart and that matters more at this juncture than specific output (snow imby for ex). This inherently means it won’t take much for the euro to show a storm like we’re seeing on the GFS and vis versa



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Webberweather53 said:
Most NWP, including the GFS, Euro, & CMC pop a shortwave ridge over the southern Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW around this time period, even though the SE US ridge is still there, it’s a pattern that we can work with given how active the southern stream is and the propensity for a TPV lobe to sitting over and south of the Hudson Bay.

The taller western ridge, stronger Hudson Bay vortex, & slightly weaker SE ridge on the GFS are the difference makers. While the euro isn’t verbatim showing a snowstorm, their patterns definitely aren’t worlds apart and that matters more at this juncture than specific output (snow imby for ex). This inherently means it won’t take much for the euro to show a storm like we’re seeing on the GFS and vis versa



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Could be the beginning of a 1 in 200 year blizznado or something.......;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most NWP, including the GFS, Euro, & CMC pop a shortwave ridge over the southern Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW around this time period, even though the SE US ridge is still there, it’s a pattern that we can work with given how active the southern stream is and the propensity for a TPV lobe to sitting over and south of the Hudson Bay.

The taller western ridge, stronger Hudson Bay vortex, & slightly weaker SE ridge on the GFS are the difference makers. While the euro isn’t verbatim showing a snowstorm, their patterns definitely aren’t worlds apart and that matters more at this juncture than specific output (snow imby for ex). This inherently means it won’t take much for the euro to show a storm like we’re seeing on the GFS and vis versa



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View attachment 33952
Click to expand...
Actually the 0z euro has a storm towards late run. By its not a winter storm by no means ...
 
Storm5 said:
Please keep any talk of the so called “ blizzard “ you are predicting in the whammy thread . There is absolutely nothing from a meteorological standpoint that comes close to supporting your prediction. We have people that come here looking for actual information about the weather and we don’t want to fill the main thread with something as extreme as what you are talking about that has no support Thanks


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Understood -- I'll keep it in the Whamby thread.

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The cold may be real, folks! First map shows how much colder 0Z GEFS 6-10 is vs yesterday’s 12Z. Second map is how much colder today’s 12Z GEFS 6-10 is vs today’s 0Z. Third map is mainly for entertainment and is today’s 12Z at hour 384: colder trends are still continuing in earnest! The key is that colder trends are continuing pretty early in the runs instead of late, when they’re often mirages!


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At least there is some noise
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The substantial weakening of the SER on nearly all model runs is such a change from most of the winter. Here may be the main reason: note the return of +AAM on all models 2/20-22. Also, note yesterday’s run (1st image) followed by today’s run (2nd image) showing even more +AAM tendencies:

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