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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

WxWatch said:
I agree with the precip output. I can tell by looking at it, we're going to see a change with storm tracks, more Gulf of Mexico activity, and coastal lows. The initial prediction of the blizzard I'm predicting, I put the main low developing south/WSW of Jamaica -- the main low may form a bit further north towards Cuba. Keep in mind, with predictions there is margin of error, just like what computer models have as well.

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Please keep any talk of the so called “ blizzard “ you are predicting in the whammy thread . There is absolutely nothing from a meteorological standpoint that comes close to supporting your prediction. We have people that come here looking for actual information about the weather and we don’t want to fill the main thread with something as extreme as what you are talking about that has no support Thanks


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FallsLake said:
The 6z GFS is still showing a potential storm for ~day 8. The 0z Canadian was close. The euro says no, but it does have a system in the SW which could change to a more favorable look in the next few runs.
6z GFS at ~day 8:
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The gfs has been good with picking up the storms but pretty bad getting the temps right. It has shown several fantasy storms this year and until we can get some other guidance onboard I'm just gonna assume the gfs is wrong again.
 
FallsLake said:
The 6z GFS is still showing a potential storm for ~day 8. The 0z Canadian was close. The euro says no, but it does have a system in the SW which could change to a more favorable look in the next few runs.
6z GFS at ~day 8:
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Most NWP, including the GFS, Euro, & CMC pop a shortwave ridge over the southern Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW around this time period, even though the SE US ridge is still there, it’s a pattern that we can work with given how active the southern stream is and the propensity for a TPV lobe to sitting over and south of the Hudson Bay.

The taller western ridge, stronger Hudson Bay vortex, & slightly weaker SE ridge on the GFS are the difference makers. While the euro isn’t verbatim showing a snowstorm, their patterns definitely aren’t worlds apart and that matters more at this juncture than specific output (snow imby for ex). This inherently means it won’t take much for the euro to show a storm like we’re seeing on the GFS and vis versa



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Webberweather53 said:
Most NWP, including the GFS, Euro, & CMC pop a shortwave ridge over the southern Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW around this time period, even though the SE US ridge is still there, it’s a pattern that we can work with given how active the southern stream is and the propensity for a TPV lobe to sitting over and south of the Hudson Bay.

The taller western ridge, stronger Hudson Bay vortex, & slightly weaker SE ridge on the GFS are the difference makers. While the euro isn’t verbatim showing a snowstorm, their patterns definitely aren’t worlds apart and that matters more at this juncture than specific output (snow imby for ex). This inherently means it won’t take much for the euro to show a storm like we’re seeing on the GFS and vis versa



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Could be the beginning of a 1 in 200 year blizznado or something.......;)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most NWP, including the GFS, Euro, & CMC pop a shortwave ridge over the southern Canadian Rockies and Pacific NW around this time period, even though the SE US ridge is still there, it’s a pattern that we can work with given how active the southern stream is and the propensity for a TPV lobe to sitting over and south of the Hudson Bay.

The taller western ridge, stronger Hudson Bay vortex, & slightly weaker SE ridge on the GFS are the difference makers. While the euro isn’t verbatim showing a snowstorm, their patterns definitely aren’t worlds apart and that matters more at this juncture than specific output (snow imby for ex). This inherently means it won’t take much for the euro to show a storm like we’re seeing on the GFS and vis versa



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Actually the 0z euro has a storm towards late run. By its not a winter storm by no means ...
 
Storm5 said:
Please keep any talk of the so called “ blizzard “ you are predicting in the whammy thread . There is absolutely nothing from a meteorological standpoint that comes close to supporting your prediction. We have people that come here looking for actual information about the weather and we don’t want to fill the main thread with something as extreme as what you are talking about that has no support Thanks


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Understood -- I'll keep it in the Whamby thread.

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The cold may be real, folks! First map shows how much colder 0Z GEFS 6-10 is vs yesterday’s 12Z. Second map is how much colder today’s 12Z GEFS 6-10 is vs today’s 0Z. Third map is mainly for entertainment and is today’s 12Z at hour 384: colder trends are still continuing in earnest! The key is that colder trends are continuing pretty early in the runs instead of late, when they’re often mirages!


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At least there is some noise
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The substantial weakening of the SER on nearly all model runs is such a change from most of the winter. Here may be the main reason: note the return of +AAM on all models 2/20-22. Also, note yesterday’s run (1st image) followed by today’s run (2nd image) showing even more +AAM tendencies:

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