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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

This is JB’s sloshing bathtub tied to a giant rubber band. #WinterIsComingish


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12z EPS much colder than 0Z: these changes are occurring much earlier in the runs than the mirages of earlier this winter:

0Z:

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12Z:
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12z EPS lows on 2/21: hard freeze suggested many well inland SE areas!

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The Arctic is cooling down again. Will it finally get to BN/colder than 245K with the extreme and long-lasting +AO?? I'm, still hoping.

Note that the coldest day's normal there isn't til ~2/26. Also, note that the normal for exactly one month from today is about the same as today's. So, the point is that the Arctic can still churn out very cold air through about a month from now. That's why if the delivery/upper winds are just right and it is fast enough, it can still get mighty cold even down into the SE into mid March despite a good bit higher sun by then. March is rarely dull from many perspectives and this is one of the reasons, the battle of the lingering very cold Arctic and the warming in the temperate regions from a higher sun. March, the modernweenie 's dream month!

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ForsythSnow said:
Not a bad look at all. Nice and cold, but the hanging back of the wave prevents a storm from forming. Could use some work but much better.
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This year just having any kind of cold nearby has been hard to come by. I'll take that look and then keep my fingers crossed that energy kicks east sooner. Got to crawl before we can walk.
 
eyewall said:
Baghdad has had more snow than RDU this season. NWS says it's basically over. On to severe season.
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Why would you say that on a day when the model trends for well over 24 hours have been MUCH colder? The 12Z Euro even has a hard freeze for most of the SE on 2/21 (possibly threatening the coldest so far this season) and the 12Z EPS mean even has accumulating snow over most of your state including RDU for 2/22-3. The NWS is behind imo. I'm sticking with the idea that winter is far from over. The +AAM trend is your friend.
 
GaWx said:
Why would you say that on a day when the model trends for well over 24 hours have been MUCH colder? The 12Z Euro even has a hard freeze for most of the SE on 2/21 (possibly threatening the coldest so far this season) and the 12Z EPS mean even has accumulating snow over most of your state including RDU for 2/22-3. The NWS is behind imo. I'm sticking with the idea that winter is far from over. The +AAM trend is your friend.
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We're entering that shoulder portion of the winter where the wavelengths are shortening and many of our canonical wintertime teleconnections start to break down. This means that even if the same forcing is continuously being imparted to create said pattern it's far more apt to undergo reshuffling on multiple occasions due to wavelength changes, and during reshuffling (which may last a few-several days), you can easily get a much different look (albeit briefly). In generally crappy winters like this one, a favorable setup ought to appear at some point given how active/strong the subtropical jet is this winter. The snowstorm in TN, GA, & SC last week came during one of the worst planetary-scale patterns of memory, a properly timed s/w during a reshuffling period between warm spells was all it took.
 
metwannabe said:
Speaking for mby specifically, 13 with something and 3 of those are big dogs.... it's better than zero and maybe even more important is it has actually "trended" better not the other direction. Still I am very skeptical, the head fakes all winter have jaded my view
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Same here most had nothing for me but then there were a couple of big dogs and this leads me to believe at this time that at such a long period out its gonna fail for me. As Webber just said though threading the needle is always possible and the look coming up is a pretty good look if even just for the slim chance. We have not even been afforded those so far this winter.
 
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Dang gfs!! What's it gonna take for that energy to kick further east? Talk about almost BOOM!!
 
Anything past 5-6 days will not happen. Models are pretty useless after those days. I would bet it will be a different look next model run. Also the cold advertised will be at least 10 degrees warmer. One thing we all should have learned last few years. Cold don’t verify like models show in long range.
 
Rain Cold said:
Energy cannot be in the SW when the high comes down. That's a deal-breaker. It's got to be just ahead of the high pressure.
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Yeah it looks like the ULL over California isn't really allowing that trough in the north to dig further SW. Everything just looks awkward.

EDIT: That being said, I do think this period has potential for the upper south(NC/TN/VA). I'm skeptical this has anything going on for it this far south.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah it looks like the ULL over California isn't really allowing that trough in the north to dig further SW. Everything just looks awkward.

EDIT: That being said, I do think this period has potential for the upper south(NC/TN/VA). I'm skeptical this has anything going on for it this far south.
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Actually, I can also see this trend better for those further south than what you named. Gefs has some support further south
 
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