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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

This is JB’s sloshing bathtub tied to a giant rubber band. #WinterIsComingish


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12z EPS much colder than 0Z: these changes are occurring much earlier in the runs than the mirages of earlier this winter:

0Z:

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12Z:
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12z EPS lows on 2/21: hard freeze suggested many well inland SE areas!

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The Arctic is cooling down again. Will it finally get to BN/colder than 245K with the extreme and long-lasting +AO?? I'm, still hoping.

Note that the coldest day's normal there isn't til ~2/26. Also, note that the normal for exactly one month from today is about the same as today's. So, the point is that the Arctic can still churn out very cold air through about a month from now. That's why if the delivery/upper winds are just right and it is fast enough, it can still get mighty cold even down into the SE into mid March despite a good bit higher sun by then. March is rarely dull from many perspectives and this is one of the reasons, the battle of the lingering very cold Arctic and the warming in the temperate regions from a higher sun. March, the modernweenie 's dream month!

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Not a bad look at all. Nice and cold, but the hanging back of the wave prevents a storm from forming. Could use some work but much better.

This year just having any kind of cold nearby has been hard to come by. I'll take that look and then keep my fingers crossed that energy kicks east sooner. Got to crawl before we can walk.
 
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