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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Keep in mind that the first 2 images are warmer 12Z GEFS comparisons to 0Z, which themselves were significantly warmer than 12 hours before it (12Z yesterday, which are reflected in the bottom 2 of the 4 GEFS images):

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The AAM peaked at +1.57 on 1/22, which was near the time of the SE cold peak. It has since dropped to +1.16 as of yesterday. The EPS projects it will dip to -0.6 as of 2/11 while the -AAM biased GEFS has it all the way down to -1.56 on 2/11.

The -AAM has a significant (40%) correlation to a stronger SER. That's a key reason why the SER/NE PAC ridge/La Nina-like pattern is making a comeback on models. Thanks to Maxar for teaching me about this.
 
GaWx said:
The AAM peaked at +1.57 on 1/22, which was near the time of the SE cold peak. It has since dropped to +1.16 as of yesterday. The EPS projects it will dip to -0.6 as of 2/11 while the -AAM biased GEFS has it all the way down to -1.56 on 2/11.

The -AAM has a significant (40%) correlation to a stronger SER. That's a key reason why the SER/NE PAC ridge/La Nina-like pattern is making a comeback on models. Thanks to Maxar for teaching me about this.
Click to expand...
Not to mention, this “-AAM” is coming at a time where we are starting to warmup from the depths of winter, so this starts influencing and increasing the threat of severe weather as we head into late winter/spring
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Not to mention, this “-AAM” is coming at a time where we are starting to warmup from the depths of winter, so this starts influencing and increasing the threat of severe weather as we head into late winter/spring
Click to expand...

Actually, I'm leaning toward it coming back up to a +AAM late Feb or early March helping us to get colder again then.
 
GaWx said:
Actually, I'm leaning toward it coming back up to a +AAM late Feb or early March helping us to get colder again then.
Click to expand...

I know, I’m just saying, this is why people on wx twitter get excited from a -AAM during spring
 
GaWx said:
The AAM peaked at +1.57 on 1/22, which was near the time of the SE cold peak. It has since dropped to +1.16 as of yesterday. The EPS projects it will dip to -0.6 as of 2/11 while the -AAM biased GEFS has it all the way down to -1.56 on 2/11.

The -AAM has a significant (40%) correlation to a stronger SER. That's a key reason why the SER/NE PAC ridge/La Nina-like pattern is making a comeback on models. Thanks to Maxar for teaching me about this.
Click to expand...

This is probably why the gefs has that more “dramatic” ugly look at the end of its run (shallow ridge south of Alaska, -PNA, SER ) from its bias
 
Yeah, I don't think this Euro is going to do it. Has a LOT more southeast ridge compared to 0z so far. I'll watch for another day or two, but we might be about to be SOL here as well.

Edit: and as far as I care, for winter too outside of the Appalachian Mountains and maybe western part of the south.
 
deltadog03 said:
Webb, I got to say...correct me if I am wrong please, but I know for most south of I-20 and South of I-85 this is usually** our best shot at a winter storm (outside of CAD events)
Click to expand...
Yes, you need patterns like this that throw as much cold air as possible into the SE US because even a halfway decent cold shot isn’t often sufficient enough to produce snow south of I 20
 
Seen a lot of this so far this winter haven’t we

prateptype_cat_ecmwf.conus.png
 
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