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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Myfrotho704_ said:
We just need a little bit less SE ridging with that system and it to speed up more, like the gfs shows, it’s not over yet, altho the gefs looked unimpressed with it
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At least both show a storm now, that's something to work with. I know no one wants to be suckered in again, but it's definitely something to still watch. But it's very alarming that the ensembles haven't showed hardly any support for the GFS, you got to think something is going to budge here soon. Either the GFS will cave (most likely the outcome), or the ensembles will begin to improve.
 
Storm5 said:
The euro is so close days 8-10. Gets snow in two west tenn with a nice def band


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I agree, and it wouldn't take much to see a different look in that time frame. It is also holding more back over the rio grande. Now, I wish we had a good high coming down the plains, like the GFS, but I think there is some consistency between the models on something trying to get going in that time frame.
 
Sorry, guys. I just don't see how this would be able to trend more favorably, unless the models are missing something major up north. There is absolutely no mechanism whatsoever to funnel cold air into the SE or keep it there, even if it did miraculously make it in.

We have a fleeting north Atlantic ridge that fails to suppress the PV, a western Atlantic ridge that's just dying to flex west, a raging +EPO that throws Pacific-sourced air into the northern US and Canada, and a sick +AO that continues to not dislodge the PV south. This is the reality of the situation. This is what we've seen time and again. This is the most likely outcome (as opposed to some magical blocking showing up or a monster arctic high pressure coming in out of the blue). This is winter 2019-2020. And there you have it.

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Myfrotho704_ said:
Seen a lot of this so far this winter haven’t we

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Basically we will continue to see these storms it’s just a matter of getting that cold air down long enough to produce some stuff for us ... so far no dice .. but again plenty of time :///
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Basically we will continue to see these storms it’s just a matter of getting that cold air down long enough to produce some stuff for us ... so far no dice .. but again plenty of time :///
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It's only a matter of time if there are changes up in and around the arctic. So far, that has been stably bad.
 
Rain Cold said:
Sorry, guys. I just don't see how this would be able to trend more favorably, unless the models are missing something major up north. There is absolutely no mechanism whatsoever to funnel cold air into the SE or keep it there, even if it did miraculously make it in.

We have a fleeting north Atlantic ridge that fails to suppress the PV, a western Atlantic ridge that's just dying to flex west, a raging +EPO that throws Pacific-sourced air into the northern US and Canada, and a sick +AO that continues to not dislodge the PV south. This is the reality of the situation. This is what we've seen time and again. This is the most likely outcome (as opposed to some magical blocking showing up or a monster arctic high pressure coming in out of the blue). This is winter 2019-2020. And there you have it.

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I will say I agree on the no cold air funnel. GFS is a bit better than the euro showing it, but that is def. not a good look for cold for us. I know it can change, and will....Models have been awful!!
 
deltadog03 said:
I will say I agree on the no cold air funnel. GFS is a bit better than the euro showing it, but that is def. not a good look for cold for us. I know it can change, and will....Models have been awful!!
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Yeah, they've been pretty bad. For the most part, though, they've been pretty reliable at warming up as we move forward and eliminating potential threats as we move in, predominately, IMO, due to the lack up help way up north. There has been nothing in our favor this year. None of that looks to change, even though the models show these mysterious cold shots and snowstorms from time to time. Hopefully, this changes before it's too late.
 
Rain Cold said:
Yeah, they've been pretty bad. For the most part, though, they've been pretty reliable at warming up as we move forward and eliminating potential threats as we move in, predominately, IMO, due to the lack up help way up north. There has been nothing in our favor this year. None of that looks to change, even though the models show these mysterious cold shots and snowstorms from time to time. Hopefully, this changes before it's too late.
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We need the +AAM to return imo. Targeting late Feb for that.
 
Well the Gfs has continued to show a system. With a different outcome every time it runs. I am not ignoring the feb 6th through 8th timeframe. But until the Euro bites at it chances of it happening are about %30. Still though bares watching


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
People are going to be shocked at how hot it can actually get in late winter under that little ridge poking it’s nose into the SE..it bout to get ?
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Yeah, end of the GFS was a good example, lmfao, hopefully we can reverse it, but This is the problem at attempts at -EPOs, if they fail and get suppressed into the GOA or the ridge axis is to far west, you bake in the SE and get near record warmth, lol
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
People are going to be shocked at how hot it can actually get in late winter under that little ridge poking it’s nose into the SE..it bout to get ?
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Yeah there’s been some early March days with temps near 90, not even joking.

I’d almost rather take my chances with a dominant northern stream featuring cold & dry with occasional flurries than rely on this crazy ass Pacific.
 
deltadog03 said:
To me....this is how, especially I-20 and south (and the I-85 corridor) can really win at a storm. Over-running storm. Outside of CAD events this, again IMHO, is the BEST way to get a good event.
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Is the 6th and 7th time period storm is it still there
 
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