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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Parker said:
00z NAM still really bullish with precip further west than other guidance. I was expecting it to shift East like other guidance.
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3k with a shift east..I’m riding the 12k to the grave
I feel like 1-2” is a good bet where I’m at above 4K....5” would be nice though8EBC33B0-854A-4232-8B06-AE786F699DF6.png
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
3k with a shift east..I’m riding the 12k to the grave
I feel like 1-2” is a good bet where I’m at above 4K....5” would be nice thoughView attachment 32664
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the 12k was def nice and the latest HRRR looked good. I’m not a fan of being on the western edge of the precip, but it also wont take much for it to trend more west and be more.

We should hopefully roll in around 3ish tomorrow and I’ll be ready to rock. I’d be very happy with just a nice 1-2 inches, but I’m super nervous about the whole deal.
 
Parker said:
the 12k was def nice and the latest HRRR looked good. I’m not a fan of being on the western edge of the precip, but it also wont take much for it to trend more west and be more.

We should hopefully roll in around 3ish tomorrow and I’ll be ready to rock. I’d be very happy with just a nice 1-2 inches, but I’m super nervous about the whole deal.
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We won’t get to Banner Elk til around 4:30 .. should be an interesting drive up I-74 ❄️
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
We won’t get to Banner Elk til around 4:30 .. should be an interesting drive up I-74 ❄
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im trying to decide whether to take the Bham to Atlanta and then through the north Georgia mountains or Bham to Chattanooga to Knoxville. Both are similar lengths, but we just took the Chattanooga to Knoxville route last week to gatlinburg. Not only will the other route be new, but it could be dicey it some of the models are correct.
 
MichaelJ said:
Folks, until we can get a -EPO and have the ridge go up in Alaska there will be little change in the warm forecasts. Unfortunately the EURO has indicated this will not happen anytime soon. As I said in a post a week or 2 ago, we will get the EPO to flip and the NAO as well in late March or early April when it will do most outside the mountains no good for wintry precipitation. Pray we don't torch excessively until then or else a lot of flowering plants and fruits will get destroyed in late March-April. :confused:
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Maple trees already have leaf buds on them. Never have seen that in January in 28 years of doing landscaping
 
Some other 0z short range guidance has joined the NAM for the northern NC foothills and VA border counties north of Winston-Salem/Greensboro for the first time. Doesn’t mean anything tho..
 
Silly RGEM plows the southern VA foothills southwestward to north-east Georgia. Advisory level snows for all NC foothills.
 
Rgem Hrrrr and Nam how often have they showed something similar and been wrong? They have a cold bias now I think elevation above 3500 feet north of Asheville will have snow. Probably 1-3 inches. But it will likely stay above 3500 feet. Lower elevation will see nothing more then flurries.


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Jessy89 said:
Rgem Hrrrr and Nam how often have they showed something similar and been wrong? They have a cold bias now I think elevation above 3500 feet north of Asheville will have snow. Probably 1-3 inches. But it will likely stay above 3500 feet. Lower elevation will see nothing more then flurries.


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Going to be more than flurries if the precip rates on the 12k NAM and RGEM are correct.
 
Obviously at the beginning wit a stale artic airmass if you get heavy enough rates, areas north of CLT May see wet snowflakes and perhaps a burst of snow, hrrr/rgem/nam 12km/ nam 3km all agree on close soundings at the start
 
After the Brent snow, I would watch for some wraparound snow behind the storm. 0z gfs tonight is hinting.
 
Parker said:
im trying to decide whether to take the Bham to Atlanta and then through the north Georgia mountains or Bham to Chattanooga to Knoxville. Both are similar lengths, but we just took the Chattanooga to Knoxville route last week to gatlinburg. Not only will the other route be new, but it could be dicey it some of the models are correct.
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It all depends on what time you plan to come through Atlanta. While there is probably not a "good" time anymore to drive through, if you are going to do so, you want to before rush hour(s). If you will hit it before 3 pm (ET), that would be best. Otherwise, go the other way. However, as you probably know, getting through Birmingham, Chattanooga, and heading into Knoxville is no piece of cake. But Atlanta traffic will make a preacher cuss!!

Good luck on the trip ... looking forward to hearing reports.
 
I know it’s probably the inner weenie in me but based off soundings on the RAP and NAM and precip maps from the RAP and RGEM I am starting to wonder if the northern upstate could get in on the action if we get heavy enough rates. And now I’m starting to look at what our temps/dew points are in conjunction to models and gsp to see if the are in line with models or higher/lower. My NCEP model blend temp bottoms out at 35 tomorrow night if so heavy rates could deal with that.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I know it’s torture. How often do we see those Texas snowstorms oriented SW to NE go *poof* in the blink of an eye..? Might have legs tho. That ridge over us in the SE is trying to flex and isn’t done yet. I’d be all in
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The EPS looks pretty good at least for some flakes lol but yeah I'm super skiddish at this range

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GaWx said:
I know these maps are skipping ahead to early March and they're from a terrible model, the CFS, but imagine if this were to occur. We'd be looking at near mid Jan normals in early March: upper 30s RDU/GSP, low 40s ATL/BMX, near 50 SAV/CHS, low to mid 50s GNV, etc. This is the coldest 5 day period on the entire run and it isn't til early March. That kind of thing can easily occur:

View attachment 32652

View attachment 32653
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Sun angle ☀️
 
I’m not saying they’re wrong, but I would be careful using the RAP/HRRR past 10+ hours. They’re pretty terrible at that range. I recall they have a tendency to overamp systems, too, but I may be wrong on that.
 
Starting to think isolated areas N of CLT (especially into the foothills) May get suprised with a burst of wet snow, models are trending towards more isothermal soundings with just sfc-950 mb temps being warm, but big chunky wet snowflakes can make it past that, also lots of bright banding and intense lift in the DGZ, along with weak elevated instability
Anyways for that burst of snow to happen your gonna need heavy rates of precip, to get snow, cool the surface to around 38-41 degrees, and a transient isothermal sounding supportive of heavy wet snow to fall tommorow evening 24A9FE6F-4212-409D-BBD8-F5897872C0A3.pngE66EEA92-C9FE-44E5-B232-CCD77151CBB7.pngB3ACD0EE-615C-41B5-BBD0-334DF3DC0159.png
 
It’s worth noting that when the precip falls, it’ll create its own in situ CAD dome, so yes, this technically is a “CAD” event
 
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