I don't know what could screw it up, but I'm not going to look for details with it being over 5 days out. The models have been terrible to some extent this winter season.
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
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GFS yanked that real quick for the NC mtns. Cold rain. Not even that cold either.
WXinCanton
Member
You're kidding right?
Big run again out past 200hrs. But it prob trend to cold rain too when it gets closer.
Gfs is close to a great storm day 8/9 . Just need a little more tilt
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Well it's out there @228 but once again the GFS says prepare for glory on this run. Dang at least 2 runs in a row.... can it be right just once??? PLEASE!
incoming!!
To me....this is how, especially I-20 and south (and the I-85 corridor) can really win at a storm. Over-running storm. Outside of CAD events this, again IMHO, is the BEST way to get a good event.
Actually worse than last run but at least it’s there. Bit warmer. And little more East unfortunately and weaker.
It might be, but I am looking for more consistency vs actually output at this point (as long as its relatively close run to run)
Much of the east coast from NC mtns to New England misses this run. Quiet a jump East.
Ilovesnow28
Member
Right I can't agree more... I mean the Gfs has to right sometime right
GeorgiaGirl
Member
It's been hinting for a while really, but the big biases the GFS has are concerning me (yesterday at this time this was on the coast before a few suppressed runs), next few Euro runs will tell me if I should keep along or not, but if it's as close as depicted or trends better, I might actually try to chase this one. Hmm.
D10 bullseye. That’s exactly what we want! Remember that big D10 WNC 36” phaser from last Friday? Well, it’s a rainstorm now. But it’s really like @Rain Cold says, “You can’t win em all if you don’t win the first one.” In that, if it’s not showing a snowy solution at d10, you can bet your A double S if wont have one at verification.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is a classic overrunning look for us in the SE US w/ a vortex over the lakes and southern stream wave hanging back over the SW US w/ broad WSW-SWly flow aloft. Would make more sense for us to score in a setup like this versus this past week. Timing of course is everything.
Webb, I got to say...correct me if I am wrong please, but I know for most south of I-20 and South of I-85 this is usually** our best shot at a winter storm (outside of CAD events)
maybe I’m a touch out of line here but that ridge stretching down into the western Atlantic gives me pause. I’ve seen that trend west to spoil the party time and time again. But I think some ridging that is properly placed off the east coast is actually ideal.. so I’m torn
GeorgiaGirl
Member
GEFS has a system but it doesn't look too enthused on it staying south enough for even north of I-85 which concerns me some, but I'm waiting on what the Euro has to say.
Edit: I can see why now. 12z GEFS suddenly went to more southeast ridging than even last night's Euro or EPS. Lets see if the Euro says yes or no to that.
Edit: I can see why now. 12z GEFS suddenly went to more southeast ridging than even last night's Euro or EPS. Lets see if the Euro says yes or no to that.
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Lates GEFS does what it often does: it is coming in significantly warmer than prior runs,,,this time during 2/5-9+ thanks to the usual tendency for more SER resistance than waht prior runs were showing.
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