It’s inside 60hr..? NAM’d or legs?
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Crappy pattern right now yes.. but what the euro run showed was a definite improvement from yesterday and any sort of shift East or even a bit more cold air supply .. could have big implications for the upper south at least and seeming that we have 240 hours to sit on it I’m sure the position of that storm will change and amount of cold air in place also will change ... we just need to beat this south east ridge back a bit more and a decent miller A could be upon us ? Unless Im wrong .. we’ve seen things trend bad and seen things trend good .. I wouldn’t say we’re too far away from something good .. at least for that storm next Saturday
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The ridge off the west coast is in a terrible place unless you like -PNA. Gulf of Alaska ridges are no bueno unless they break into Alaska and/or the Pacific side of the Arctic...
Get rid of that NE Pacific ridge like what just happened and we can get cold in the SE just like what happened. That is a tele to a strong SER. Do you want that? I'd rather have a ridge in W NA/+PNA.
Couldn’t this ridge adjust positions with time? Also how far into Alaska must it go in order for us to receive more cold air?
My worse winter gave my 1" of snow. So I've never been blanked while living in this area. So far I haven't seen a sleet pellet.
I hate to start mentioning March, but that may be our best chance to see anything. This pattern should break down with the arrival of the spring pattern (shorter wave lengths). Our odds will still be (normally) low, but at least we'll have a chance.
It is pretty stubborn and seems to be related to a forecasted -AAM and I suppose Maritime phases of the MJO. However, nothing is ever static and both will very likely be in different positions within a month or so. Start checking the models in ~10-14 days (including the MJO and AO) and see if there are then hints of a change.
Downeastnc
Member
Have not seen any winter weather here since Dec 2018 when it snowed 2-3" then promptly melted in a few hrs, so really its more like since Jan 2018 so over 2 years now....the worst snow drought I can remember though we had a few in the 90's that were close.....still literally no winter weather at all in 2019, I still think something comes along in the next 3-5 weeks....eastern NC is due for a good thump...
ATLwxfan
Member
Historic ice and sleet storm on 18z GFS
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ATLwxfan
Member
Southern MS and AL totally obliterated by ice.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Kinda reminds of the famous 1994 February ice storm that happen in the southeast.
Might wanna save this one for the archives. ?? I love fantasy storms.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I think I seen this movie before. Let's just see if we can get it to stay on the model for a few runs. I like the look of that cold air more than the storm.
I believe this is the type of riding we need into Alaska to help bring us some tremendously cold high pressure systems into our neck of the woods ... which is what brought the outright fantasy of all fantasy ice storms to most of the south east on the 18z Gfs ... wherever the boundary between the south east ridge and those high pressures sets up is going to get a whole lotta winter weather with the combined southern jet streaming moisture in
Attachments
ATLwxfan
Member
Holy hell it goes on for days.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Nighttime lows and daytime highs after a storm like that .... also monstrous high pressures (1050+) filtering in from 240+ hours until the end of the run which looked like the last photo.. no south east ridge problems at the end of this run that’s for sure ?
Attachments
Brent
Member
Holy hell it goes on for days.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
At least there's finally a map worth saving
Storm5
Member
Might be banner but it belongs here NO CHANCE
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Holy hell it goes on for days.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Good lord!
Lol
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Idk. That Toccoa snow/ice hole is pretty believable
And the CAE shutout
the CAE one as well
BHS1975
Member
Talk about Siberian express.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Hahah, the warm nose is like giving us the middle finger...
Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
That's way better than the pattern we're in now. It's nice to see the -EPO all the way to the pole. That could evolve nicely down the line. Of course it has to verify and the GFS has been horrible with the EPO all year.Talk about Siberian express.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
RollTide18
Member
I mean it’s possible, seems to go against climo but definitely possible.
Edit: I see it’s past 300 hrs, nvm then, no chance.
Oh lord .. what would this even look like
Yes, but only plausible if the PNA goes negative
If GFS was half right all winter I would have 30 inches already
Seems they are in agreement of some sort of -EPO around the 7-15 timeframe .... we will see ... has there ever been a time this winter when all these models had -EPO showing up for the same time period and then failed?
Hell why not? What we're in now ain't gonna cut it. What do we have to lose?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The key is getting the ridge to be centered over or north of Alaska, the -PNA will break down if this occurs and the big Hudson Bay vortex would slide further south. Very subtle changes to the character of a -EPO turn one of the worst patterns for snow to an amazing one
Downeastnc
Member
It would be historic if its a 3rd of those totals.....surface temps are mid to upper 20's and it would change to sleet before ending as temps crash.....the heavy nature of the precip would also limit accrual so these numbers are probably overdone by a good margin...still 50-.75" of ice would be big trouble.
What’s it going to take to get the -EPO to pair with a +PNA?