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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Webberweather53 said:
The key is getting the ridge to be centered over or north of Alaska, the -PNA will break down if this occurs and the big Hudson Bay vortex would slide further south. Very subtle changes to the character of a -EPO turn one of the worst patterns for snow to an amazing one
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How about the SER scenario? Am I wrong by saying that the EPS has a bias of keeping the SER too long instead of breaking it down if there is a trough to the west?

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NCCWOP9077 said:
How about the SER scenario? Am I wrong by saying that the EPS has a bias of keeping the SER too long instead of breaking it down if there is a trough to the west?

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The SER has verified to be very prevalent the last two winters. So, I don't see it having been kept too long by the EPS when averaged out. Of course, there are always exceptions to the rule. What's helped to make the GEFS so bad is that it has been underdoing the SER in the extended and it constantly is correcting as the time draws closer with more SER.
 
The only accurate mid long range forecast this winter for me has been the 10 day wunderground page. Don't know ---- about their algorithm but it's right on. 10 more days of no freezing weather upcoming, in the heart of the heart of winter. Sad, really. I saw another mosquito tonight, just one, little dynamo, but virtually unknown in these parts in January.
 
I'm predicting that for February, overall temps will be seasonal with some transitional warm and cold shots. The map below is the long term average from those years through the months Feb to April. I'm just using that map as an idea as to how the temps I think will turn out overall this month. I'm also using February, 1993 as an analog. During that year, the Southeastern US experienced average temps overall.

tempFMA.png


The map below is the 700mb mean geopotenital heights from Feb, 1993 and we could see a dominating pattern similar to the one back in 1993 of February. (The map is from Gerald Bell and Allan Basist.)

Screenshot_3.jpg



Signs continue to show that the STJ will remain active, so overall, I'm going with above normal precipitation for at least the next two weeks. The best bet for frozen precipitation would be for the higher elevations. I think it's going to be difficult for the area's outside of the mountains to get any type of winter storm. As long as the subtropical jet is amplified, the deep cold air would have a difficult time reaching south and east. That's not always the case, but factoring in the combination of an active southern branch and southeastern ridging, the "battle zone" sets up.

The ENSO is still neutral, and is projected to do so. Neutral ENSO conditions do have the characteristics of Nino conditions.

enso neutral composite(1).jpg

It's possible the pattern changes quickly just before spring, and arctic air plummets south and east and we just might score a good winter storm in March. In the mean time, the pattern still doesn't look all that good for deep long lasting cold or winter storms in the Southeastern US.
 

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  • enso neutral composite(1).jpg
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Hey CFS from two weeks ago? Where are you now, where are you now. O Evil art thou, the changes: 1580369576947.png
 
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SETNwx said:
Hey CFS from two weeks ago? Where are you now, where are you now.
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This is from the latest CFS through mid Feb. 500mb pattern doesn't look that good, higher heights surrounding the PV, the deeper colder air would be confined from the mid latitudes into the higher latitudes. Nice Alaska blocking, but you can see some ridging in the Southeastern US. "Battle zone" would be northwest and west of the Southeastern US. 2m temp anomalies look to be about average, slightly below average depending on where you're located and above normal for Florida.
33ced4176030c63b28d8e5c59a501848.jpg
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WxWatch said:
I'm predicting that for February, overall temps will be seasonal with some transitional warm and cold shots. The map below is the long term average from those years through the months Feb to April. I'm just using that map as an idea as to how the temps I think will turn out overall this month. I'm also using February, 1993 as an analog. During that year, the Southeastern US experienced average temps overall.

View attachment 32588


The map below is the 700mb mean geopotenital heights from Feb, 1993 and we could see a dominating pattern similar to the one back in 1993 of February. (The map is from Gerald Bell and Allan Basist.)

View attachment 32591



Signs continue to show that the STJ will remain active, so overall, I'm going with above normal precipitation for at least the next two weeks. The best bet for frozen precipitation would be for the higher elevations. I think it's going to be difficult for the area's outside of the mountains to get any type of winter storm. As long as the subtropical jet is amplified, the deep cold air would have a difficult time reaching south and east. That's not always the case, but factoring in the combination of an active southern branch and southeastern ridging, the "battle zone" sets up.

The ENSO is still neutral, and is projected to do so. Neutral ENSO conditions do have the characteristics of Nino conditions.

View attachment 32593

It's possible the pattern changes quickly just before spring, and arctic air plummets south and east and we just might score a good winter storm in March. In the mean time, the pattern still doesn't look all that good for deep long lasting cold or winter storms in the Southeastern US.
Click to expand...

That's not an ENSO neutral pattern and that's also not the characteristics of a NINO pattern. It's a NINA pattern w/ an active subtropical jet. Also, when you make composites, make sure you use a base period that's actually relevant for the years you're analyzing. If you have a bunch of "analogs" in the 60s and 70s, don't use 1981-2010 like you did here. Why? Your composite will be biased cold. Use 1951-2010 or possibly even 1895-2000
 
Webberweather53 said:
That's not an ENSO neutral pattern and that's also not the characteristics of a NINO pattern. It's a NINA pattern w/ an active subtropical jet. Also, when you make composites, make sure you use a base period that's actually relevant for the years you're analyzing. If you have a bunch of "analogs" in the 60s and 70s, don't use 1981-2010 like you did here. Why? Your composite will be biased cold. Use 1951-2010 or possibly even 1895-2000
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Using 1895-2000 likely brings us much closer to reality and the increasingly evident underlying tendency (for coast-to-coast warmth)

1580382191946.png
 
Season to date US climate division temperature and precipitation ranks. Much of the US is running both a top 20 warmest and wettest winter on record. I'm willing to bet the SE US ranks get even higher after February is complete.

csector_conus__var_precip__p_day__year_2020__month_1__sdate_2019-12-01__edate_2020-01-30__cmap...png


csector_conus__var_avgt__p_day__year_2020__month_1__sdate_2019-12-01__edate_2020-01-30__cmap_R...png
 
Webberweather53 said:
Season to date US climate division temperature and precipitation ranks. Much of the US is running both a top 20 warmest and wettest winter on record. I'm willing to bet the SE US ranks get even higher after February is complete.

View attachment 32600


View attachment 32601
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I thought the West was receiving trough after trough all winter long? Has the source regions of these troughs just been that bad cold wise or were the interludes between these troughs just very warm? Or both. I know pacific SST,s have been basically AN pretty much everywhere also and I know that can’t help.
 
The more I look, the main difference in the NAM and global guidance is that the NAM throws precip back against the mountains and the Globals really don’t
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
The more I look, the main difference in the NAM and global guidance is that the NAM throws precip back against the mountains and the Globals really don’t
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this is amazing! Some say no, and the NAM drops close to half a foot. I’m just happy to have it all on the table. Let’s go NAM!!
 


Hmm the 10-15 EPS looks familiar...that’s because it is! We just went through this pattern for the second week of Jan, and it’s set to dominate the second week of Feb.

We know now a PV split isn’t happening...no signs of the MJO driving the pattern to change. I’d be surprised if RDU gets snow in Feb with this look. Yes it’s hard to cancel Feb, but with everything on the table and how this winter is proceeding so far, I’m ok with saying no snow at RDU through the first half. Now, Fan Fab last half??? Our time is truly running out.


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