Storm5
Member
EPS gives Huntsville hope for late next week . Best looking eps run so far this sh**** winter
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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
Technically they are showing the same type of system it’s just the Gfs has much more cold air coming in a bit faster creating a more fun for all scenario .. euro is lagging behind which gives the storm justtttt enough room to cut .. but it was close and no reason to think that can’t change in the coming 7 days
Right now we are seeing with the robust low over AK that getting snow is slim pickings. But, the models do agree on a change of atleast moving the PV to a more favorable position...and even with the ridge axis off the coast it atleast would give a better chance with cold dumped into conus.
Not terrible for sure ??
Can maybe sneak some cad events in with that look if I’m not mistaken... but we know how all that goes
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
If only the freezing point of water was 40F and not 32F.
This would be a great pattern to get it cold in the Rockies, Plains, and upper Midwest while the SE ridge dominates the SE and MidAtlantic states with its warm SW flow. At least that's what usually happens with this. With that strong a SW flow, good luck on getting a strong surface high into the NE US to allow for a good wedge down into the SE.
We imo need the +AAM to return and the NE Pacific ridge to go away just as what happened in our recent cold snap. I'm cautiously optimistic that will occur late in Feb., especially if the MJO goes back around to the low amp left side. So, patience recommended. Nothing is static.
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Meanwhile..fml
Nomanslandva
Member
I keep thinking this is so close to being much better but one of the things I have overlooked in my weenie wishcasting is the lack of dew point depression and how that impacts temps. Still hoping for a little stronger storm with better dynamics.
Work with me here. Trying to make lemonade. You’re just shoving rotten lemons in everyone mouth. ?
in all seriousness having deep cold seeded in NA is a big improvement.
Not being ugly, but we really need to stop with posts like this in the general thread. That is no where near a record warmth pattern.
No offense taken. I think my main point was, a little ridge goes a long way in the late stages of winter and to play devils advocate to “this not a record warmth pattern”, we actually might make a run at top 5 warmest winters on record for many locations represented on this board. So I think my point was on topic enough to belong in the main thread.
Also everyone really needs to look more at the individual members than the mean. If you did you would see there are a lot of good looks on the members with the worst ones just more or less progressive. You can find them at weather.us.
Well, at least the ridge appears to be breaking down towards the end. Late February will be fab. Maybe.
In any case, it will change, but it is certainly easy to believe these prognostications of a SE ridge considering how this winter has gone to this point. Persistency is a thing.
ATLwxfan
Member
People are going to be shocked at how hot it can actually get in late winter under that little ridge poking it’s nose into the SE..it bout to get
I have ZERO confidence in anything modeled that far out. The models have proven largely unreliable past 7 days this year.
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To think we could be excited that if it bumped 50 miles NW we would be near potential double digit snow totals
Not sure where to look at the 18z Euro. Anything on the backend this run? Post some of dem snow maps
Oh it only goes out to 90hr? I was wondering what that trailing wave was looking like this run
Stormlover
Member
that's why I blocked seeing his posts long ago...try it, it works great