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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Euro was very close to something big again... we’re going to see some model waffling back and forth over the coming days but now we know .. somethings still brewing for that time period and we have an opportunity to time it right here .. also a lot of improvement with heights in Greenland this run much more blocking than present last nights run
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Euro was very close to something big again... we’re going to see some model waffling back and forth over the coming days but now we know .. somethings still brewing for that time period and we have an opportunity to time it right here .. also a lot of improvement with heights in Greenland this run much more blocking than present last nights run
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Was the euro close something big for a broad wide winter event
 
Get some good ensemble spread lock in the op inside 120hr and we got a storm at least that's how it was back in the day I've yet to see it this winter....
 
Webberweather53 said:
Basically the entire GEFS several run trend from day 5 onward looks terrible.
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There will be severe weather threats popping up soon if it warms up enough and then in mid to late March we will get plenty of setups that we will say "if only this were January we'd be digging out" but instead will be watching 30s/40s and rain lol, that's how we roll. Warm winter and cool spring.
 
2nd week of Feb looks wet and AN. What's the over/under on the number of days Raleigh sees a freeze in Feb? I would go with 3...but even with that I would take the under.

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ecmwf-ensemble-avg-conus-t2m_f_anom_7day-1552000.png
 
KyloG said:
2nd week of Feb looks wet and AN. What's the over/under on the number of days Raleigh sees a freeze in Feb? I would go with 3...but even with that I would take the under.

View attachment 32485View attachment 32486
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I'd take the over at 3 but under around 7.5. We've done a decent job at getting cool to cold at night lately
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m counting on heavy cloud cover to spoil those overnight lows even if cold air moves this way to end the month. Feb is basically spring. Bet the streak.
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Well the good news is ph4 is the warmest for Feb nino, even warmer than 5. So after that, anything else will be an improvement.
 
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