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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Picked up 1.74" of rain in the last batch yesterday. This will be used for testing purposes/for fun, but as a reference, here are what some models have up until the next round ends in my area...

12z GFS: 1.21" and 0z GFS: 1.10"
12z Euro: 1.24"
18z NAM: 1.8"
0z HRRR: 1.07"

Kinda striking how close the GFS/Euro is, even though it's close range, but will look at this after the precip is over and see how much I actually got in comparison.
 
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tennessee storm said:
Remember though the daily average. Temps r rising heading March
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They're still pretty low then as they don't start rising rapidly until much later in March. As I said, a freeze or two down to or even south of him is being modeled. Some highs in the 40s are being modeled that is at or near the coldest yet this winter. There is genuine cold likely coming with much below temps on several days. So, @pcbjr is going to have some great opportunities to use his fireplace.
 
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I know yall are focused on winter weather in North Carolina tomm, but does anyone have a link to access tropicaltidbits gfs maps so I can look up past winter events?
 
I’m seeing some wicked phase potential at the end of the month..I’m sounding the alarm for Feb 28-March 4

PNA with a split flow. Relentless southern stream. Trough digging into the east. Juicy wave coming down the Idaho stovepipe followed by another NS wave diving down out of Canada..mercy

F749418B-521A-4D2B-BC01-2F7CAB35C7E8.gif
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m seeing some wicked phase potential at the end of the month..I’m sounding the alarm for Feb 28-March 4

PNA with a split flow. Relentless southern stream. Trough digging into the east. Juicy wave coming down the Idaho stovepipe followed by another NS wave diving down out of Canada..mercy

View attachment 35803
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And this is all we needed we just need a few things to come together to give us the cold and with that active southern jet something is bound to connect ... connecting for the first time tomorrow .. and it looks to go rampit later this month and early March .. and right now we have atrocious teleconnections .. models picking up on better teleconnections with the next set of systems .. were going to score again folks


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Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m seeing some wicked phase potential at the end of the month..I’m sounding the alarm for Feb 28-March 4

PNA with a split flow. Relentless southern stream. Trough digging into the east. Juicy wave coming down the Idaho stovepipe followed by another NS wave diving down out of Canada..mercy

View attachment 35803
Click to expand...

In that particular sequence, who'd that benefit (I'm still somewhat a novice when it comes to a few details)?
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I’m seeing some wicked phase potential at the end of the month..I’m sounding the alarm for Feb 28-March 4

PNA with a split flow. Relentless southern stream. Trough digging into the east. Juicy wave coming down the Idaho stovepipe followed by another NS wave diving down out of Canada..mercy

View attachment 35803
Click to expand...
Nick_boynton_ said:
And this is all we needed we just need a few things to come together to give us the cold and with that active southern jet something is bound to connect ... connecting for the first time tomorrow .. and it looks to go rampit later this month and early March .. and right now we have atrocious teleconnections .. models picking up on better teleconnections with the next set of systems .. were going to score again folks


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Click to expand...

Today just might be the appetizer for the big dog.
 
Add in the rain as well. This looks pretty gloomy for the SE. Lanier is already at record levels.

www.11alive.com

Lake Lanier water level inches closer to record high

The rain keeps coming.
www.11alive.com www.11alive.com

gfs_apcpn_us_64.png
 
Arcc said:
Be glad that the Euro isn’t showing more instability for next week. Back to back dangerous looks at 500mb with the second really nasty.
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Just fixing to hit on that ... be interesting see what today’s 12z runs show. The gfs this morning had one mean nasty severe outbreak fantasy land ... with cape Val’s pushing 1500 towards north as Tennessee state line . 971 mb slp over northern Missouri unreal
 
Latest long term trends going into March have been warmer than earlier runs since yesterday, especially on GEFS/GEPS. Let’s see what the EPS has later.
 
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