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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

whatalife said:
Some support for next weekend by the EPS...For whatever that’s worth considering how poorly they done...
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Normally I would be excited but after seeing how poorly the EPS has been lately as you mentioned it’s hard to believe anything outside day 3


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Well, I guess I-20 might have a chance of something sneaking in with some of these medium-longer range looks. Not the raw "snow" showing up verbatim, but I like how things are setting up for another chance in the deeper South.

Thankfully as we head towards March, major icing events become less of a threat down this way.
 
Later in this Happy Hour GFS, look what’s lurking over NW Canada! Let’s see if that ends up plunging down in early March later in the run:



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Edit: Well, look at this. It is coming and that is extreme cold/colder than preceding Arctic airmasses!

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Look out below!!

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Frigid air air coming down!
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Freeze down to @pcbjr on 3/5 and hard freezes much of SE with once again at or near coldest of season:
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Wondering if the rest of February will be cold enough to completely offset the early month warmth and we actually end up with a below normal February (even if it's only a fraction of a degree)
 
So, should we be paying attention to a Happy Hour GFS that dumps at or near the coldest air of the season on the SE 2 weeks from today? Normally, I’d say no. But due to analogs and teles like the +AAM and due to the models not seeing the current oncoming Arctic mass as well as last week’s that gave the Midwest their coldest of the season to date until within a week or so before, I’d say watch this one carefully. Note that the origins of this airmass appear to be from NE Siberia just a few days from now that soon after crosses into Alaska before plunging through Canada toward us. Let’s see if future runs show this.

By the way, it had KSAV down to 28 on 3/5, which would be the coldest since way back in January of 2018!

*Edited for correction: NE Siberia, not NW Siberia.
 
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GaWx said:
So, should we be paying attention to a Happy Hour GFS that dumps at or near the coldest air of the season on the SE 2 weeks from today? Normally, I’d say no. But due to analogs and teles like the +AAM and due to the models not seeing the current oncoming Arctic mass as well as last week’s that gave the Midwest their coldest of the season to date until within a week or so before, I’d say watch this one carefully. Note that the origins of this airmass appear to be from NW Siberia just a few days from now that soon after crosses into Alaska before plunging through Canada toward us. Let’s see if future runs show this.

By the way, it had KSAV down to 28 on 3/5, which would be the coldest since way back in January of 2018!
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Personally I think it makes sense for us to get cold considering the patterns we’ve seen at the end of these mild winters going into spring the last couple of years. At least it looks like we may be seeing the cold come in early enough to do us some good in regards to snow chances. 4 of the 6 biggest snows that I’ve personally experienced occurred after 2/25. I always feel if you get a pattern favoring snow here in late February and March, you got a better chance at a big one than you do in January
 
Bsud said:
We need cold in place instead of relying on evaperational cooling if we want a decent snow in the SE.
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100% agree with this. Cold air MUST already be in place for most of SC and NC outside of the mountains to get a major snow. 12 hours later on this system would have meant 4-8 inches of snow for many of us. CAD can change rain to ZR or sleet more reliably, but that has not happened since 2015 either.

March 2009 can maybe be called an exception. That did start as rain and went over to a very nice snow event for the area from ATL up to GSO.
 
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