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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Big take away ... we may be occupied with this upcoming storm but we are far from over these winter storm threats ... busy time ahead .. ensembles will help smooth out the mess
 
With the understanding that the CFS has a cold bias in general, the 6Z CFS verbatim has KATL near a whopping 9 BN for 3/1-15 (~43 F or near the coldest 10 day stretch of normals of January), which if verified would make it the coldest 3/1-15 there since way back in 1969!

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850 mb 0Z line down to FL/GA border, something not seen often for a full 5 day averaged period during any part of winter much less early March!

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Stormdoc said:
View attachment 35264
Repeat in 9 days of the same wintry look from this week?
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The odds are increasing that there will be more posts like this not only for very late Feb but also well into the first half of March. Winter appears to be just beginning, folks. Regarding wintry precip threats, the storms of earlier this month and this week may very well be followed by a lot more action. Get your rest while you can! We essentially look to have Januarylike wx for the next few weeks and may not be out of it for another month or so!
 
GaWx said:
The odds are increasing that there will be more posts like this not only for very late Feb but also well into the first half of March. Winter appears to be just beginning, folks. Regarding wintry precip threats, the storms of earlier this month and this week may very well be followed by a lot more action. Get your rest while you can! We essentially look to have Januarylike wx for the next few weeks and may not be out of it for another month or so!
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This could be that year where much of the SE gets a major winter storm in March.
 
cd2play said:
This could be that year where much of the SE gets a major winter storm in March.
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In addition, I'd add very late Feb as a period to watch as Stormdoc and Jimmy suggested. Regarding SE widespread major in March, itself, I think the last one was 2009. Before that, I have 1993, 1983, 1980, 1971, 1969, 1960 (3+!), 1948 (ZR), 1942, 1927, 1924 and 1914 among other possibilities for majors in much of the SE or about once every 10 March's since 1915. Of these 11, only 2 (1948 and 1927) were not cold overall.
 
Lickwx said:
Look, march averages in the 60s for this entire board, down south where you are it averages in the 70s! Point is a cold march would mean an extremely long winter and more rainy 50 degree days here and for you, it will probably be in the 60s, so not exactly cold, just below average. Same weather we had in November, December, January, February, and now possibly March! That's 5 months of this crap I call out! let it get dry and sunny, besides March has been mostly below average last 10 years now let's change it up.
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My average high for March is 58 and does not hit 60 until March 20th. Well below normal temps gives a good shot at snow and usually a big one up here due to more moisture. Either way I’ll still take a cold rainy March since we won’t be to far from months of upper 80s low 90s and horrific humidity
 
GaWx said:
With the understanding that the CFS has a cold bias in general, the 6Z CFS verbatim has KATL near a whopping 9 BN for 3/1-15 (~43 F or near the coldest 10 day stretch of normals of January), which if verified would make it the coldest 3/1-15 there since way back in 1969!

View attachment 35254

View attachment 35255

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View attachment 35260



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850 mb 0Z line down to FL/GA border, something not seen often for a full 5 day averaged period during any part of winter much less early March!

View attachment 35261
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Larry,
You and some others make focusing on work difficult today. I truly thank you ... ;)
Phil

BTW ...

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I hope this cold is real that Larry keeps showing . I haven’t been able to snuggle with the wife once yet this winter . I know we’ve had cold in the past seven years cause I have two kids . So I snuggled at some point


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I hope the southern branch is active if it gets cold again so maybe we can have some better chances at snow or sleet
 
GaWx said:
The odds are increasing that there will be more posts like this not only for very late Feb but also well into the first half of March. Winter appears to be just beginning, folks. Regarding wintry precip threats, the storms of earlier this month and this week may very well be followed by a lot more action. Get your rest while you can! We essentially look to have Januarylike wx for the next few weeks and may not be out of it for another month or so!
Click to expand...
To early to be drinking lol... if it gets colder it will be dry .. just way we r
Storm5 said:
I hope this cold is real that Larry keeps showing . I haven’t been able to snuggle with the wife once yet this winter . I know we’ve had cold in the past seven years cause I have two kids . So I snuggled at some point


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yeah and if you get to much cold again, yall will have three kids... lol
 
Decent looking supercell in tuscaloosa county. Suprised no tornado warning just to be cautious even though its looking a little disorganized at the moment.IMG_20200218_164939.jpgScreenshot_20200218-164807_RadarScope.jpgScreenshot_20200218-164803_RadarScope.jpg
 
Its got good form but having trouble organizing better wind shear is the county that its heading to so will see what happens?‍♂️Screenshot_20200218-165417_RadarScope.jpg
 
Storm5 said:
I hope this cold is real that Larry keeps showing . I haven’t been able to snuggle with the wife once yet this winter . I know we’ve had cold in the past seven years cause I have two kids . So I snuggled at some point


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Might want to rethink your approach. Snuggling is an all weather activity!
 
GaWx said:
In addition, I'd add very late Feb as a period to watch as Stormdoc and Jimmy suggested. Regarding SE widespread major in March, itself, I think the last one was 2009. Before that, I have 1993, 1983, 1980, 1971, 1969, 1960 (3+!), 1948 (ZR), 1942, 1927, 1924 and 1914 among other possibilities for majors in much of the SE or about once every 10 March's since 1915. Of these 11, only 2 (1948 and 1927) were not cold overall.
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Thank you for all your commentary that you do.
 
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