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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Please be real: (actually for March but putting it here since too early for Mar thread):
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Woah @tennessee storm
One of the nastiest H5 pattern I’ve seen in a minute, it’s not often you get CAPE/warm sector pulled up that far north in February View attachment 34505View attachment 34506
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Yeah. Getting time year spring fighting winter
GaWx said:
Please be real: (actually for March but putting it here since too early for Mar thread):
View attachment 34621View attachment 34622View attachment 34625View attachment 34626
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Agree with you on the early March cooler pattern. There going be some colder air pulled down behind that major system towards end month . That system has major severe outbreak written all over it especially for areas in the western southeast . But pattern looks to be and remain fairly progressive ...
 
We all should have learned by now anything the models show past 5 days will change. Also Guaranteed they will trend warmer once within those five days. Long range cold which I consider past 5 days will always be not as cold as shown.
 
KyloG said:
Sure looks transient on the EPS...GOA ridge. It’s same ole same ole fantasy. And like you’ve posted many times, the GEFS has a terrible cold bias





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The GEFS absolutely has a terrible cold bias that constantly leads to false cold expectations and I normally note that when I post the extended GEFS, but that map I last posted was the EPS (0Z), which has had a lesser cold bias and only minimal cold bias very recently. I'm hoping that the trend toward +AAM will mean even less cold pattern bias for the model consensus since it tends to mean a weaker SER overall and hopefully will mean little to no cold bias in the weeks ahead at least from the EPS. On that note, here is the 12Z EPS for the day I've been focusing on, March 1st: still has nationwide BN, something pretty rarely seen this winter on the EPS until very recently because it often showed the SE stubbornly staying near or AN due to SER:

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The H5/sfc map does show the Arctic high bringing the cold into the SE without SER blocking. So, near this period MAY be the next time to look for a potential threat if the Arctic high is strong enough and a GOM low were to form. But it also shows the NE Pacific ridge threatening to reassert itself. Hopefully that would either not occur or be only transitional based on the hopes that the +AAM continues once it returns ~2/20 since that favors a weaker SER in the means, we really do return to and remain in for awhile the more favorable MJO, and the AO really does dives to no more than low amp +AO, and also based on analogs (the ducks are on the pond):

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Brick Tamland said:
Our weather and climate is so whack now, I wouldn't be surprised to have a winter storm in March. Nothing seems to be "normal" anymore.
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Winter storms in Middle Tennessee are not all that rare. We usually get a decent or even big snow somewhere in northern Tennessee about every 3 years or so. 2018 was the last time we got a decent March snow of about 2 inches. It also snowed 2 times in April that year in less then 10 days apart. The April snow is much more whacky then March snow.
 
We are very much overdo for a very strong cold plunge in March in the SE. KATL hasn't had lower than 25 in March in 10 years. Prior to this, the longest stretch on record was only 8 years. Also, KATL hasn't had a March teen low for the last 21 years. Prior to this, the longest stretch on record was only 17 years.

KATL has had 20 March's with a lowest in the teens since 1879, or 1 every 7 March's. For 12 of those 20, it was at or within 1 F of the coldest of the entire winter. An impressive 40% of those 20 March's with teen lows had measurable SN or IP (more than a T) vs a mere 10% of the others and 15% of all of them combined. One of these that didn't give KATL measurable gave Jacksonville, FL, a T of sleet very late in the month (1955)!

Regarding cold overall March's (colder than 50), there have been 26 since 1879 or ~1 every 5.5 times. but there has been a mere 1 of these since 1972 (2013)! I don't think this is all from climate change as the 1970s-1980s were pretty cold overall. So, I think a good bit of this is from randomness. Maybe 2020 will be the 2nd such March since 1972 if we can get a good head-start to cold?
 
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It's winter weenie time again from the 12Z CFS (they run behind by a cycle): (yes, I know they've been terribly cold biased like the GEFS and I constantly warn about this, but they weren't in advance of the cold in Nov and I have reasons (analog/tele combo) to favor cold during this period):

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Oh, and is that a deep GOM Miller A being suggested during this cold period? I know that predicting storms this far out is the most crap shoot of crap shoots. But, at least this helps us dream of the glory that March has brought the SE and is fully capable of doing again:

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olhausen said:
Winter storms in Middle Tennessee are not all that rare. We usually get a decent or even big snow somewhere in northern Tennessee about every 3 years or so. 2018 was the last time we got a decent March snow of about 2 inches. It also snowed 2 times in April that year in less then 10 days apart. The April snow is much more whacky then March snow.
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Much of Middle TN had a 2-4 inch snow event in January 2018
 
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