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Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age

Happy spring...NOT! And this is a an EPS, which has had a good bit less cold bias than the GEFS/GEPS (which are also cold) and almost no cold bias recently. And with the oncoming +AAM (which wouldn't favor a strong SER) as well as consideration of analogs, I wouldn't be surprised if any EPS cold bias is minimal here. Unlike the GEFS/GEPS, it has been rare recently for an EPS to show nationwide cold, especially the inclusion of the SE.

These temps would be near the normal for early to mid Jan! Remember that normal early to mid Jan that we didn't get to experience? Now we may get it!

Let's get ready to rock, hopefully!

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GaWx said:
Happy spring...NOT! And this is a an EPS, which has had a good bit less cold bias than the GEFS/GEPS )which are also cold) and almost no cold bias recently. And with the oncoming +AAM (which wouldn't favor a strong SER( as well as consideration of analogs, I wouldn't be surprised if any EPS cold bias is minimal here. Unlike the GEFS/GEPS, it has been rare recently for an EPS to show nationwide cold, especially the inclusion of the SE.

These temps would be near the normal for early to mid Jan! Remember that normal early to mid Jan that we didn't get to experience? Now we may get it!

Let's get ready to rock, hopefully!

View attachment 34469
Click to expand...
Yeah. I’m of the opinion next week’s suppressed storm is not our last shot. March 1 is still inside snow climo for most of this board
 
GaWx said:
Happy spring...NOT! And this is a an EPS, which has had a good bit less cold bias than the GEFS/GEPS (which are also cold) and almost no cold bias recently. And with the oncoming +AAM (which wouldn't favor a strong SER) as well as consideration of analogs, I wouldn't be surprised if any EPS cold bias is minimal here. Unlike the GEFS/GEPS, it has been rare recently for an EPS to show nationwide cold, especially the inclusion of the SE.

These temps would be near the normal for early to mid Jan! Remember that normal early to mid Jan that we didn't get to experience? Now we may get it!

Let's get ready to rock, hopefully!

View attachment 34469
Click to expand...
Larry,
Where do I subscribe to this?
Phil
 
All ensembles as well as recent GFSs are strong on the idea of a nice Arctic high coming down toward the end of Feb and into early Mar.with no resistance from a SER. Assuming this isn't a mirage this time. many areas could be seeing their coldest of the season to date. And Arctic of that magnitude at that time of winter often has wintry precip associated with it at some point although that part remains to be seen.

By the way, the AO still looks like after another rise to near record levels that it will plunge to near neutral, the NAO looks to drop, the PNA still looks slightly +, and the MJO actually looks pretty sweet. All of this along with the oncoming +AAM and cold analogs means put the bathing suits away.
 
GaWx said:
All ensembles as well as recent GFSs are strong on the idea of a nice Arctic high coming down toward the end of Feb and into early Mar.with no resistance from a SER. Assuming this isn't a mirage this time. many areas could be seeing their coldest of the season to date. And Arctic of that magnitude at that time of winter often has wintry precip associated with it at some point although that part remains to be seen.

By the way, the AO still looks like after another rise to near record levels that it will plunge to near neutral, the NAO looks to drop, the PNA still looks slightly +, and the MJO actually looks pretty sweet. All of this along with the oncoming +AAM and cold analogs means put the bathing suits away.
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I love but you know as well as everyone on here if it doesn’t snow it doesn’t matter. It’s a tough crowd to please. You saw this coming 1st so nice job .


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GaWx said:
Happy spring...NOT! And this is a an EPS, which has had a good bit less cold bias than the GEFS/GEPS (which are also cold) and almost no cold bias recently. And with the oncoming +AAM (which wouldn't favor a strong SER) as well as consideration of analogs, I wouldn't be surprised if any EPS cold bias is minimal here. Unlike the GEFS/GEPS, it has been rare recently for an EPS to show nationwide cold, especially the inclusion of the SE.

These temps would be near the normal for early to mid Jan! Remember that normal early to mid Jan that we didn't get to experience? Now we may get it!

Let's get ready to rock, hopefully!

View attachment 34469
Click to expand...
Cold march...who knew? Now get ready for molten may
 
Our weather and climate is so whack now, I wouldn't be surprised to have a winter storm in March. Nothing seems to be "normal" anymore.
 
Btw, the euro showed a beastly look for severe weather at the end of its run, probably to cool tho at the sfc, but man get this H5 look in may and your getting wedges for days
Edit spellcheck has hated me lately 04022E91-33F5-45AF-BA90-E69C5B7720F0.pngFECF86E0-DD52-4C6E-A036-C601E514F29A.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Btw, the euro showed a beastly look for severe weather at the end of its run, probably to cool tho at the sfc, but man get this H5 look in may and your getting wedges for days
Edit spellcheck has hated me lately View attachment 34490View attachment 34491
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Yeah that got my attention big today ... gfs has been very consistent 3 days of runs showing a big system cutting through Missouri
 
9.19 inches
14e8e8130a7f57ab99bc5b8d2b526fe1.png



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Looks like the Gfs is maintaining a fairly potent cold pattern for the end of February and into March ... a pattern like it’s showing would have multiple threats for winter weather ... let’s pray this thing is BACKLOADED
 
Dang, that’s a mean looking ensemble mean, likely gonna be a big storm around this time, that H5 pattern looks nasty for severe weather, Southeast ridging really kinda determines it, but this is something to watch B511CAB4-036C-4BE6-8F9F-CF9DE79A6DBA.png43E73D4A-B67F-4036-8516-886DCB6E3EBE.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Sure it’s far out, but Theres major support already for that system on all ensembles means (Gefs/eps/geps) and the euro/gfs/cmc
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Analogy ... my rain forecast at 90% 2 days ago ... at 18 hours out ... supported by everything including NWS ... not a drop ... ... when there are trends, and multiple model trends ... then it's time ...
 
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