-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern Fab-February 2020 The dark age
- Thread starter Ilovesnow28
- Start date
After looking through each model run, the key to getting snow in the SE will be to have this wave coming down from Canada (in purple) be stronger. That will pull SW energy into East. This is a small detail, but other models are on the side of a weaker wave, so I’m going with that. Nonetheless this can change easily.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The differences between the most recent 0z and yesterday's 12z Euro run are pretty trivial in a general sense for being 7-8 days out, don't become too overwhelmed & concerned w/ details (i.e. snow output), the signal for a storm is generally still there. This EPS suite however is not impressive at all and that's much more meaningful.
Gefs is mighty impressive 
Jon
Member
That helps, but it may more to do with the feature just north of cali stretching to Washington state. That energy has been on the modeling that leaves the ULL out west. The stronger that is and more west it is, the less likely the northern stream can take it with it. It may be a combination of the two, but the GFS model run a few days ago without the energy feature west was still snow here
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ForsythSnow
Moderator
The real question is how'd the EPS as a whole look? If it completely threw it away then there's something to worry about.
It didn’t completely throw it away, but is much worse.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
The EPS and models will change, setup is STILL there everyone.. Stay Calm!!It didn’t completely throw it away, but is much worse.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
It will be interesting to see which way the ENS (and op) go today. The EPS really was flat out bad. Are we going to find a way to mess this up already? Lol
Jon
Member
It didn’t completely throw it away, but is much worse.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Ollie,
Do you have the last 3 runs of the EPS 500mb vorticity centered on 12z 2/21? I don’t have access to those maps. I would appreciate it!
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
snowlover91
Member
It’s only one bad run of the Euro and EPS but they are the models you want on your side for a snow chance... we are getting inside 144 hours which is the Euro bread and butter range. Key for me is the ensemble support, you want better eps support than what we have right now to feel good about this. Still plenty of time for things to change but we took a step back last night with the Euro.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I see the back and forth dance and flip flopping with the models has begun. This is typical. We see this all the time when we have a winter storm threat. Yesterday the Euro was the first to show the storm, while the GFS and GEFS showed nothing, and the last run of the Euro showed less, while the GEFS jumped on board last time and shows a storm. Very rarely do we have a storm show up on the models and stay there the whole way, and very rarely does a storm show up on the models at the same time this far out. The back and forth and flip flopping at this time is a good thing in my opinion. It happens more often than not when we have a legit threat for a winter storm here. It is hard to get a storm here, and it is hard for the models to get a hold of one this far out. Heck, sometimes they do this dance until we get inside 48 hours. As long as at least one of them shows something this far out we still have a threat. Just have to wait and see how things go and how they sort things out now. Sometimes they have to get through all the noise to show what eventually will really happen.
Jon
Member
The op GFS was the first one to find the storm, not the euro. The euro found in a full day or so later. Then the GFS IMMEDIATELY backtracked with the next run and said the ULL would be left out west and the NS energy will be too progressive. Then the Euro continued to show a nice solution, with no ULL. Until 12z yesterday, some separation started to occur, and with 00z today was even more.
The euro is clearly trending toward the GFS and they’re actually in more agreement today than they were yesterday.
Just because the euro Op has “something” this run doesn’t mean it will at 12z...the trend is obvious unless this is a big goof by the euro.
We have had big storms show up and stay on the modeling, I don’t think Dec 2018 gave us too much trouble and kept showing up solidly on the means.
But I agree with you about the noise. It could be just too much for the models to hone in on, but it seems they are moving toward a shared solution that leaves the SE out of a nice system.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Jessy89
Member
Bottom line if Euro doesn’t trend better today. That won’t be a good sign. The chances of it getting squashed are high.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
BHS1975
Member
I’d rather see that at this point and take my chances instead of a big jump north cause that would be a lock.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I'd like to see some actual consistency with the models for at least two days to consider anything a trend. And even then they could change again. There is plenty of time for more back and forth with what the models show.
Last edited by a moderator:
Shaggy
Member
Like I said yesterday, consistency and agreement are what's needed and right now both are shaky. That was euro run #3 only 13 or so more to go.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
There is a specific thread for next week's potential storm.
Wintry - February 19-21, 2020 Winter Storm
southernwx.com