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Tropical Eta

Downeastnc said:
Massive issues with recon as well, several canceled flights today and it appears the one that finally got off is returning....might be time to invest in 3-4 new top aircraft.
Click to expand...

Someone at another BB said this:
"The NHC needs to send out another recon plane ASAP. It’s been hours since we’ve had direct data, and they need to know its exact intensity for warnings."

Here was my response:
"Can't they already tell enough from satellite/microwave data that it is an extremely powerful storm without needing to see the direct data for appropriate warnings? I would also love to see the recon data and hope they get in there before landfall so we have the most accurate record possible for this storm, but how critical is it now for warnings, especially since the NHC has already acknowledged that it is a beast that will get even stronger (150)? How much difference it is going to make for warnings if it ends up being 160 or even 175 mph?"

I later added this:
"Not having recon in Eta right now doesn't, itself, increase the danger to Central America. They already know it will be a near worst case scenario, which the NHC is already forecasting."
 
It’s like all the sudden the storm has just went completely bonkers (eye clearing/tall convection/expanding deep CDO), and I thought it was doing so earlier, imo that’s over a cat 5
 
Time to call what recon finds. I’m gonna say 205mph at 880mb.


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A plane finally is on the way after all the troubles earlier. Sure we didn't have data sooner but the safety of the crew is more important than the data.

Regarding the storm, the HWRF initializes in the low 930s and 920s range so I expect these pressures. Given the tiny eye and icy cloud ring, I would not be surprised to see a cat 5 or 180 mph with pressures nearing 900 at the worst.

Edit: looking at the last frame there appears to be even colder cloud tops wrapping in now. This could be insane to watch.
 
Just checked out the IR of Eta, was too busy to earlier today (making a new dessert that we're about to try) but just did so.

JEEZ
 
Not quite as clean looking as Patricia so maybe 180ish.


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Find it hard to imagine this is not a160-180 mph cane right now....the presentation is just classic....need that recon so 2020 officially has a Cat 5....
 
Any guesses on pressure the plane finds......maybe 900-910....seems like sub 920 for sure NHC went 150mph 934mbin its update
 
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