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Pattern December to Remember

Check out this site, espeacilly mtn posters. Current freezing level at 12,000ft, forecasted to fall below 3,000 ft late weekend.

Beech Mountain Weather Forecast (1678m)

Beech Mountain, Blue Ridge Mountains, Appalachians, United States Mountain weather forecast for 1678m. Detailed 6 day mountain weather forecast for climbers and mountaineers.
www.mountain-forecast.com www.mountain-forecast.com
 
GaWx said:
It used to be that plain rain was evil once into met winter. Not anymore! Most want it now. Of course, about the only kind of rain I ever get down here is plain but I digress.

Well, Ryan’s map above tells me the Bleaklies will likely be dominated by bleak. However, I’ll still be looking for a silver lining late Dec and the first half of January as his maps don’t break it down that much.
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They look like the same map copy pasted each day. The control though good grief that'll send you through every emotion possible
 
In addition to the warmth, it's looking to be dry-ish here.

Gonna have to watch those shortwaves that buckle through though, as they could pose a conditional severe weather threat. Moisture return and daytime heating (with the low clouds) won't be all that great, but there will be steep mid-level lapse rates and decent shear.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Patience will be the key we will get a good pattern eventually .. I’d rather it not be in December .. let’s see how many CADs we can rack up during this boring pattern
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Odds are we even out the number of days between warm upper 60's and low 70 days and cold 40 degree cloudy and dreary CAD days. Now those west of the mountains are probably going to bake at least through the next 10 days. I am not willing to go beyond that because these models are not very good outside of 4 or 5 days but most seem dead set on the SER at least through the next 10 so we will see how that turns out.
 
What are the chances this winter is similar to the 89-90 winter, minus the arctic outbreak at the end of December? That was also a second year Nina, I think. Winter was non existent that year after the Christmas blizzard.
 
iGRXY said:
Odds are we even out the number of days between warm upper 60's and low 70 days and cold 40 degree cloudy and dreary CAD days. Now those west of the mountains are probably going to bake at least through the next 10 days. I am not willing to go beyond that because these models are not very good outside of 4 or 5 days but most seem dead set on the SER at least through the next 10 so we will see how that turns out.
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The cooler 12z euro (still warm) only has 1-2 CAD days to several 60/70 degree days2CA27027-E8E3-4B57-B58D-9C82F652D0A0.png

the GFS has something similar as well with some dec 7-8th CAD50FAAD79-521B-4416-AC82-2338206554BE.png
Doesn’t seem very “even” to me, the CAD is mad weak per current models. Everyone is getting the torch bud ain’t no escaping the dec weenie roast
 
Downeastnc said:
Late 70's into the early 80's was full of big storms here....I remember 79 being the first year I can really remember playing in deep snow I was 7, then 1980-1990 was bigtime with 4-5 big events an lots of smaller ones and a few monster ice storms....
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The winter of 1978-79 was great in upstate SC too, with an icestorm and a good bit of snow. 1981-82 was great too with an icestorm just before New Years Day, followed about 10 days days later by VERY cold weather and then back to back snowstorms. A very strong El Nino caused the winter of 1982-83 to be great too with several events followed by the big March 24 snowstorm. Great winters then took a break until 1986-87 which was great along and northwest of I-85 in SC and NC. We all know what happened in Jan 7 1988, making that winter great. 1988-89 was not great here, with only the only big event, the big mid Feb icestorm, but of course eastern NC scored big on Feb 24 1989. The one gave me about 2 inches but would have been more if temps had been 3-4 degrees colder. Eastern NC then got that monster just before Christmas 1989 too.
 
Poimen said:
What are the chances this winter is similar to the 89-90 winter, minus the arctic outbreak at the end of December? That was also a second year Nina, I think. Winter was non existent that year after the Christmas blizzard.
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Can only happen in reverse IF models are right about Dec. Meaning a warm December and then maybe winter after that.
 
JHS said:
Can only happen in reverse IF models are right about Dec. Meaning a warm December and then maybe winter after that.
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I admit my memory could be fuzzy, but I think it was warm the first half of December too. The only winter weather was the last two weeks of the month, as I recall.
 
Poimen said:
I admit my memory could be fuzzy, but I think it was warm the first half of December too. The only winter weather was the last two weeks of the month, as I recall.
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Agreed. It’s Dec 2nd. Calm down folks. Our region always does best late jan through early March. Long way to go haha.
 
My area does better February but it’s the shortest month of the year and March but only the first week of March. Everything is negative living in the s/e. Don’t forget the sun angle too plus warm ground after December is over with eek
 
We definitely will need some help from mother nature moving forward. My friend Tennessee Storm likes niñas but I personally dont. I like neutral patterns and take my chances from there.
 
Poimen said:
I admit my memory could be fuzzy, but I think it was warm the first half of December too. The only winter weather was the last two weeks of the month, as I recall.
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You may be right about the 1st half of Dec 1989 overall but I was thinking we had at least some cold those 1st 2 weeks too. We had ice and some snow I know for sure the weekend the Shrine Bowl high school football game was played in Charlotte. That was my area's biggest winter weather event of the month despite the bone chilling last 2 weeks of it.
 
It’s really not too late to change the name of this thread because man you won’t be remembering this one
 
The strongest niño on record 2015-16 had a cold period for a few weeks the beginning to middle of January for the upper south and mid Atlantic. I saw a freezing drizzle event and an ULL from that big system that hit mid Atlantic with over 3 feet snow
 
JHS said:
You may be right about the 1st half of Dec 1989 overall but I was thinking we had at least some cold those 1st 2 weeks too. We had ice and some snow I know for sure the weekend the Shrine Bowl high school football game was played in Charlotte. That was my area's biggest winter weather event of the month despite the bone chilling last 2 weeks of it.
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Yes. First half December 89 was torch
 
BirdManDoomW said:
It’s really not too late to change the name of this thread because man you won’t be remembering this one
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We will be remembering how warm it was IF models are correct. I still remember December 2015 very well although at was not cold at all.
 
Poimen said:
I admit my memory could be fuzzy, but I think it was warm the first half of December too. The only winter weather was the last two weeks of the month, as I recall.
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No there was a major winter storm for much of NC and upstate SC around the 10th of the month followed by another big hit for the mountains and foothills a few days later. Most of that month stayed quite cold
 
JHS said:
You may be right about the 1st half of Dec 1989 overall but I was thinking we had at least some cold those 1st 2 weeks too. We had ice and some snow I know for sure the weekend the Shrine Bowl high school football game was played in Charlotte. That was my area's biggest winter weather event of the month despite the bone chilling last 2 weeks of it.
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Yes that was the event because I was selected for that Shrine Bowl but couldn’t play because I had hurt my knee a few weeks earlier. Also that same weekend the state championship high school football games were played in Chapel Hill with snow covering Kenan Stadium. But that whole month was quite cold from about the 5th till a few days after Christmas
 
Chazwin said:
No there was a major winter storm for much of NC and upstate SC around the 10th of the month followed by another big hit for the mountains and foothills a few days later. Most of that month stayed quite cold
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Yep that storm nailed my area pretty good and the forecast for temps to get above freezing did not happen. I was not expecting the snow late that Sat but I sure enjoyed it.
 
Chazwin said:
Yes that was the event because I was selected for that Shrine Bowl but couldn’t play because I had hurt my knee a few weeks earlier. Also that same weekend the state championship high school football games were played in Chapel Hill with snow covering Kenan Stadium. But that whole month was quite cold from about the 5th till a few days after Christmas
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Furman University near Greenville SC had a home game that day too that was played in the snow. Very heavy snow there in fact.
 
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