Pattern December to Remember

[bigstick10]

Who is the weather provider here? This is repulsive to say the least. JESUS,,,

View attachment Atlanta Georgia Extended Weather Forecasts - WeatherForYou.com_20211231441.png

 

[NoSnowATL]

Who is the weather provider here? This is repulsive to say the least. JESUS,,,

View attachment 96699

We need the rain so that's a positive.

 

[smast16]

The cooler 12z euro (still warm) only has 1-2 CAD days to several 60/70 degree daysView attachment 96666

the GFS has something similar as well with some dec 7-8th CADView attachment 96667
Doesn’t seem very “even” to me, the CAD is mad weak per current models. Everyone is getting the torch bud ain’t no escaping the dec weenie roast

With those GFS temps and a little rain, the grass might start growing again.

 

[SD]

With those GFS temps and a little rain, the grass might start growing again.

Wouldn't be a bad time to reseed of you lost anything.

 

[cd2play]

Who is the weather provider here? This is repulsive to say the least. JESUS,,,

View attachment 96699

Complete polar opposite to snow.

 

[MichaelJ]

I just don't see how we get cold except for a transient shot. The ECMWF OP, GFS OP, CMC, GFS Ensembles, ECMWF ensembles and GFS extended all keep the PNA VERY negative for at least 2 weeks and it is hard to get cold air in the SE with a -PNA. As Eric pointed out the MJO looks to linger around phase 6 for a while too and that is generally a warm signal for this time of year.

 

[SD]

Interested to see how well we wedge Sunday. Euro has been slowly backing away while the NAMs are most excited as usual

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Yes

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Interested to see how well we wedge Sunday. Euro has been slowly backing away while the NAMs are most excited as usual

Nam is like Matt rhule. Over its head

 

[Webberweather53]

Gonna be keeping an eye on the MJO the next few weeks. The bias-corrected ECMWF monthly forecast from yesterday is probably one of the more realistic ones overall, keeping the MJO milling around w/ amplitude between phase 6-7 for basically the rest of December, which signals warmth overall in the SE US and cold intruding into the N Rockies + upper Midwest (canonical NINA pattern)

The reason I say this is when you breakdown the daily probability (%) of seeing a winter storm in NC (east of the mtns) by MJO phase and month, what really stands out is MJO phase 7 in January w/ nearly a 16% chance of a winter storm per day, higher than any other phase in any month, phase 8 & null are a somewhat close seconds in January. This likely has a lot to do w/ the subtropical jet becoming more active & a -NAO tendency being favored when the MJO moves towards the west-central Pacific (phase 7). If the CFS and EPS + empirical wave propagation for a slow-moving La Nina MJO event (i.e. history) are generally to be believed, we could see this come to fruition in/around early January. I.e. the most favorable window for a winter storm may be in this time period

Chart is shown below: NC Winter Storm Probability by MJO phase & month since 1974.

Most favorable phase overall (red/bold, Jan Phase 7), most favorable phase per month (orange/bold), 2nd & 3rd most favorable (yellow/bold)



Data source:
Nov-Mar Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Gonna be keeping an eye on the MJO the next few weeks. The bias-corrected ECMWF monthly forecast from yesterday is probably one of the more realistic ones overall, keeping the MJO milling around w/ amplitude between phase 6-7 for basically the rest of December, which signals warmth overall in the SE US and cold intruding into the N Rockies + upper Midwest (canonical NINA pattern)

The reason I say this is when you breakdown the daily probability (%) of seeing a winter storm in NC (east of the mtns) by MJO phase and month, what really stands out is MJO phase 7 in January w/ nearly a 16% chance of a winter storm per day, higher than any other phase in any month, phase 8 & null are a somewhat close seconds in January. This likely has a lot to do w/ the subtropical jet becoming more active & a -NAO tendency being favored when the MJO moves towards the west-central Pacific (phase 7). If the CFS and EPS + empirical wave propagation for a slow-moving La Nina MJO event (i.e. history) are generally to be believed, we could see this come to fruition in/around early January. I.e. the most favorable window for a winter storm may be in this time period

Chart is shown below: NC Winter Storm Probability by MJO phase & month since 1974.

Most favorable phase overall (red/bold, Jan Phase 7), most favorable phase per month (orange/bold), 2nd & 3rd most favorable (yellow/bold)

View attachment 96701

Data source:
Nov-Mar Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)

December phase 7 looking noice

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Gonna be keeping an eye on the MJO the next few weeks. The bias-corrected ECMWF monthly forecast from yesterday is probably one of the more realistic ones overall, keeping the MJO milling around w/ amplitude between phase 6-7 for basically the rest of December, which signals warmth overall in the SE US and cold intruding into the N Rockies + upper Midwest (canonical NINA pattern)

The reason I say this is when you breakdown the daily probability (%) of seeing a winter storm in NC (east of the mtns) by MJO phase and month, what really stands out is MJO phase 7 in January w/ nearly a 16% chance of a winter storm per day, higher than any other phase in any month, phase 8 & null are a somewhat close seconds in January. This likely has a lot to do w/ the subtropical jet becoming more active & a -NAO tendency being favored when the MJO moves towards the west-central Pacific (phase 7). If the CFS and EPS + empirical wave propagation for a slow-moving La Nina MJO event (i.e. history) are generally to be believed, we could see this come to fruition in/around early January. I.e. the most favorable window for a winter storm may be in this time period

Chart is shown below: NC Winter Storm Probability by MJO phase & month since 1974.

Most favorable phase overall (red/bold, Jan Phase 7), most favorable phase per month (orange/bold), 2nd & 3rd most favorable (yellow/bold)

View attachment 96701

Data source:
Nov-Mar Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)

Also the spread in those MJO runs is kind of crazy

 

[MichaelJ]

December phase 7 looking noice

7 is a cool phase in our region but not really cold. Also a lot will depend on the amplitude it goes into to make a difference here, although it is better than 6

 

[Webberweather53]

Also the spread in those MJO runs is kind of crazy

This might be the catalyst that eventually drags us out of the La Nina later this spring. Really big WWB all the way up to ~150W shown on most NWP models usually means the warm pool starts to get nudged a bit eastward in the long-run, and any downwelling KW emanating from it may kill the Nina in several months time

 

[MichaelJ]

Here is the Euro MJO forecast for the next 30 days

To me this says we go very briefly into 7 but then right back into 6 around mid-month and then meanders into 7 the rest of the month, albeit at a lower amplitude

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Here is the Euro MJO forecast for the next 30 days

To me this says we go very briefly into 7 but then right back into 6 around mid-month and then meanders into 7 the rest of the month, albeit at a lower amplitude

I like where we are headed into the new year .. phase 8 in January would be a sight for sore eyes

 

[LukeBarrette]

I didnt realize that CMC gives us peeps in Virginia an ice storm, probably not right but it's good to see that wintry precip does exist in the models.

 

[BirdManDoomW]

View attachment 96709
I didnt realize that CMC gives us peeps in Virginia an ice storm, probably not right but it's good to see that wintry precip does exist in the models.

Already warming I see was pink into sc/NC areas

 

[LickWx]

Temps soaring , already 67. Mid 70s look very real. Models were too cold .

 

[ATLwxfan]

The incoming parade of spring storms is going to put a damper on things


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