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Pattern December to Remember

06z GEFS coming in much cooler for Christmas Eve and Christmas Day for the SE.

r2r
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NorthDFWwx said:
It's several days out and people are still reeling from last night, but we'll have to keep an eye out on the system this upcoming Wednesday/Thursday too for more severe weather.

It's a similar setup, just a bit further NW.
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Called it:

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At least this time around, the heightened threat level is being a lot more hyped earlier. Perhaps this will convince more people to be more dilligent about monitoring the weather conditions this evening.
 
2 things about the current pattern that are haunting in the back of my mind:
  • Canada has plenty of cold right now and for the forseeable future. However, that doesn't mean it will always be that way. I remember a time in the past where we finally got the cold coming from Canada, but were left saying "if we just had the cold up there that we had a couple of weeks ago......". So, saying that when the pattern "flips" in January we'll finally get all of that really cold air in Canada to come down gives me reason to pause.
  • I also remember a winter maybe 10-15 years ago where the pacific just roared west to east across the country and basically cut off any substantial cold air making it much further south than midway in the country. What we have now reminds me alot of that, only things are shifted a bit north at the current time. Hofefully this isn't a repeat.
Hoping for some ice and snow on the horizon before too much longer. Very rarely have I made it all the way to Jan 1 without a flake or sleet pellet.
TW
 
Is it unusual for the CFS to agree with most long range models? Particularly in the mid January time frame? I have read that many discredit such a forecast model.
 
Euro control is bonkers widespread 30s 40s on Christmas day, a light snow event for nc on the 26th-27th, by the end of the run it has a pv lobe in the lakes, and most days for the region near and after Christmas are well BN. Likely way too cold but fun to see
 
SD said:
Euro control is bonkers widespread 30s 40s on Christmas day, a light snow event for nc on the 26th-27th, by the end of the run it has a pv lobe in the lakes, and most days for the region near and after Christmas are well BN. Likely way too cold but fun to see
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Would love to see that when I come back to NC for Christmas.
 
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