Pattern December to Remember

[GaWx]

6 is no good in January right?

Correct but no model keeps it in 6 other than within the next few days.

 

[SnowNiner]

And also phase 2, another pretty chilly phase. It normally is great in combo with -NAO/-AO but the main fly in the ointment is the stubborn -PNA, which needs to go by January to give the best shot at longlasting dominant cold and not just in and out cold via wedging. At least getting to neutral would help.

I agree. Grit's twitter post gave me some nice encouragement and patience for January out west. I liked the description too of how this year, although similar it seems to this year, is a bit different in the Pacific with perhaps a better outcome for January. I hope he's right about the pacific jet and its effect on the ridging. If we can get it to come east in tandem with a -NAO, and a cold Canada, we'd be in business. I don't think I've seen a true -NAO/-AO/+PNA regime set up in my weenie days. It would be nice to see the outcome of that.

Just impatient looking at the meh as far as the eye can see on the models. And the MJO waffling is not helping.

 

[BHS1975]

When you set your record high at 5 am, and it’s already noticeably humid out, it’s a little scary

Ooof and in DECEMBER no less. Weather going off the rails.


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[Stephenb888]

Is there a legit chance of getting the pacific ridge to push further east sometime soon is it all wishful thinking?

 

[Webberweather53]

I hope the CFS is right with it getting to phase 8 in only about one week:

View attachment 98049

It isn't. CFSv2 is always too fast w/ the MJO.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

ICON has a great rainmaker

 

[tennessee storm]

6 is no good in January right?

Correct sir

 

[SD]

Pretty chilly morning to test out the new callaways

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It pays off living in NC

 

[Ollie Williams]

Colder this run:

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gotta love the trend, this is quickly turning into a favorable pattern for the Carolinas if we can sneak some energy from the western trough

 

[Broken024]

Gotta love the trend, this is quickly turning into a favorable pattern for the Carolinas if we can sneak some energy from the western trough View attachment 98063View attachment 98064

I will wait for Logan's analysis before getting hopes up.

 

[SD]

Gotta love the trend, this is quickly turning into a favorable pattern for the Carolinas if we can sneak some energy from the western trough View attachment 98063View attachment 98064

Can we please just close off retrograde the system off the WC under the ridge and stop the connection to the energy trying to find dive S through Canada? If we can't it's a chilly pattern but will be prone to moderate toward New Years

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Can we please just retrograde the system off the WC under the ridge and clean that up? If we can't it's a chilly pattern but will be prone to moderate toward New Years

That’s basically what grit said would possibly eventually happen lol. The only reason i like the -PNA in that case is the barrage of energy that could enter that confluence and we score that way, sort of like march 2018

 

[SD]

Well the gfs is unloading this

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Oh my oh my the gfs might show that process

 

[mrdaddyman]

Gotta love the trend, this is quickly turning into a favorable pattern for the Carolinas if we can sneak some energy from the western trough View attachment 98063View attachment 98064

Aren't we starting to lose the -NAO here though? Got to keep that storm track South.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Aren't we starting to lose the -NAO here though? Got to keep that storm track South.

It doesn’t matter with the amount of CAD we’re about to see with that high pressure moving in … the kitchen sink has already been thrown

 

[Ollie Williams]

The GFS is finally retrograding the ridge into a +PNA!

 

[SD]

The GFS is finally retrograding the ridge into a +PNA!

Geez that would be ridiculously cold in early jan