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Pattern December to Remember

SD said:
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If this pans out that not bad at all and again nice trends. Also, if that is right, this means the true torch was only a handful of days and not wall to wall like it appeared might occur. SER is real but the SER on roids that models love to show in the extended the last couple of years always gets muted closer we get in time. Thanks to -NAO I suppose and of course if we lose that it could get ugly but for now again I'm loving the trends. Thanks for posting these daily man
 
metwannabe said:
If this pans out that not bad at all and again nice trends. Also, if that is right, this means the true torch was only a handful of days and not wall to wall like it appeared might occur. SER is real but the SER on roids that models love to show in the extended the last couple of years always gets muted closer we get in time. Thanks to -NAO I suppose and of course if we lose that it could get ugly but for now again I'm loving the trends. Thanks for posting these daily man
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We locally caught a bit of a break with how the pattern set up to avoid the real super warm stuff at least for as long of a duration as we could have. The monthly mean should still end up ++++++ with at least 7-8 +10+ days which are hard to erase when the cold is seasonal.
 
Some unbelievably cold air building up over the arctic and northwestern Canada on the GFS. I like the trough breaking off into a ULL, retrograding under the block south of the Aleutians. That would help to pump heights up out west and direct colder air into the SE. If the model is right and is too quick breaking down the -NAO, it will get really cold here with that look. But it's 384 hours out, so lol at this point, I guess. Anyway, better than seeing a big #golfweather SE ridge.

gfs_z500_mslp_nhem_65.png
 
The GEFS now has the MJO not reaching phase 8 through the end of its run (12/29) though it is getting close then. Early on it straddles the border between 7 and 6:

CD5F2E16-6E38-4284-9705-5E3C1050C14D.gif

The Euro also doesn’t get to phase 8 by the end and is actually back into 6 early in the run. So, they don’t agree where the MJO is now:

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GaWx said:
The GEFS now has the MJO not reaching phase 8 through the end of its run (12/29) though it is getting close then. Early on it straddles the border between 7 and 6:

View attachment 98047

The Euro also doesn’t get to phase 8 by the end and is actually back into 6 early in the run. So, they don’t agree where the MJO is now:

View attachment 98048
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I would assume this may bode well for colder air lasting well into January if we make a slow pass through 7,8,1…


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The GEFS has a -NAO and -AO starting shortly and remaining that way through the end: very nice for cold lovers!

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However, to get sustained dominant cold in the SE (I don’t mean cold just via wedges that are in and out), it would be very helpful to get rid of the -PNA, which is stubborn through the end of the run though hinting it may head to neutral late:

D6658ABD-BA68-430D-B19F-7909FEA6C9A0.gif
 
SD said:
If anyone this it's worthwhile I'll start a thread for the Iowa severe today since it's outside of the region but probably going to generate some discussion here
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When you set your record high at 5 am, and it’s already noticeably humid out, it’s a little scary
 
GaWx said:
The GEFS now has the MJO not reaching phase 8 through the end of its run (12/29) though it is getting close then. Early on it straddles the border between 7 and 6:

View attachment 98047

The Euro also doesn’t get to phase 8 by the end and is actually back into 6 early in the run. So, they don’t agree where the MJO is now:

View attachment 98048
Click to expand...
6 is no good in January right?
 
whatalife said:
I would assume this may bode well for colder air lasting well into January if we make a slow pass through 7,8,1…


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And also phase 2, another pretty chilly phase. It normally is great in combo with -NAO/-AO but the main fly in the ointment is the stubborn -PNA, which needs to go by January to give the best shot at longlasting dominant cold and not just in and out cold via wedging. At least getting to neutral would help.
 
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