From RAH:
Confidence then greatly decreases for the rest of the period. There
will at least be a lull in precipitation later Sunday - Sunday night
as the
front moves south of the area. However, a
shortwave trough
over the Desert Southwest will finally get ejected eastward by a
closed mid/upper low moving into the eastern Pacific. The
shortwave
will move across Texas on Sunday night and the Gulf Coast on Monday
and Tuesday, with a coastal surface low developing along the stalled
front. The 12z
ECMWF continues to be slower and more suppressed with
the system, only giving our area light precipitation and not until
Tuesday. The 12z
GFS and Canadian trended in this direction as well,
as did the
ECMWF ensembles, the vast majority of which are now dry.
Thus continue just chance
POPs on Monday and Tuesday, highest south.
While it should be a mainly rain event if it even occurs,
temperatures will be cool enough that precip-type issues will need
to be watched. There is a high to the north on Monday morning, but
it is a bit weaker (1030-1035 mb) and farther north (SE Canada) than
one would want to see for significant frozen precip here. In
addition, the high quickly moves away later Monday into Tuesday, and
with the latest guidance delaying any precip until then, both the
12z GFS and ECMWF would essentially be an all rain event. So keep
all liquid in the
wx grids at least for now. Regardless,
temperatures will certainly be much cooler on Monday and Tuesday
with highs in the mid-40s to lower-50s, which is slightly below
normal.
&&