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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Storm5 said:
18z gfs is loaded with fun potential. I guess we sleep after Christmas
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No. Because then you'll start overseeing
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I've noticed that the last few GFS runs have had more of a La Nina pattern in the 11-15 with more of a -PNA bringing in the brunt of Arctic airmasses more into the N Plains.
 
GaWx said:
I've noticed that the last few GFS runs have had more of a La Nina pattern in the 11-15 with more of a -PNA bringing in the brunt of Arctic airmasses more into the N Plains.
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Larry,
That PNA is the key to the cellar or the attic ... ;)
... and down she slides ...

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with the NAO being of no help ... :confused:
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
That PNA is the key to the cellar or the attic ... ;)
... and down she slides ...
with the NAO being of no help ... :confused:
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IF the +PNA ,-NAO, and -EPO were to actually go bye bye, hopefully there'd still be a solid -AO in the last half of Dec. Analogs do suggest that fwiw.
 
Meh, the SE US ridge isn't all that impressive... Key difference between the EPS and GEFS out at week 2 is the placement of the ridge over the NE Pacific and Canadian Rockies, the EPS looks much better for the SE US with the ridge centered over the Rockies vs the GEFS which has it over the NE Pacific. Hence the EPS is forecasting a very solid +PNA right on into week 3 and the forecasts have only been getting more positive over the past few days. I'd trust the Euro suite's LR forecast over the GEFS in most cases...
gefs_z500a5d_v2_noram_61.png
eps_z500a_5d_noram_61.png

eps_pna_bias.png
 
The clipper parade on the models is awesome and chances are one of these bomb into a nice coastal. If I were in northeast NC into the mid Atlantic I would be pumped

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SD said:
The clipper parade on the models is awesome and chances are one of these bomb into a nice coastal. If I were in northeast NC into the mid Atlantic I would be pumped

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It's been a long time since we've seen so much potential.
 
SD said:
The clipper parade on the models is awesome and chances are one of these bomb into a nice coastal. If I were in northeast NC into the mid Atlantic I would be pumped

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You think we’ll get shafted?


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Brick Tamland said:
It's been a long time since we've seen so much potential.
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It certainly isn't boring. I'm never sold on capitalizing on clippers but the pattern certainly said looks ripe to possibly bomb one. I worry it'll be to our NE

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ForsythSnow said:
All the talk about snow, and no talk about how this rain is coming in. Glad we are about to get some good downpours. Haven't been having much rain this month or recently.
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Yeah it picked up quickly. Got soaked coming out of class.
 
BHS1975 said:
You think we’ll get shafted?


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Yes and no. I'm not sure we get bullseyed but I don't think we get shut out either. I think the pattern leading into Christmas might support a larger storm not sure if we are on the warm side.

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Question that no one else has brought up yet, but are there any signs of an active severe season after the cold is over? I know last January was quite active in some areas.
 
Back in November, the GFS nailed the +PNA and the -NAO 11-15 days prior than the EURO. The EURO kept spitting out zonal flow. Keep that in mind going forward...
 
WeatherLC said:
Question that no one else has brought up yet, but are there any signs of an active severe season after the cold is over? I know last January was quite active in some areas.
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I'd lean more toward Feb seeing severe pick up

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WeatherLC said:
Question that no one else has brought up yet, but are there any signs of an active severe season after the cold is over? I know last January was quite active in some areas.
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think severe will become more active towards end january into february myself.... nina winters tend to bring severe threats later winter period.... some of them vilotale
 
For the first time in at least several GFS runs, the 0Z GFS has a very nice tall western ridge early next week. Let's see how this plays out the rest of next week.
 
Regardless of the rest of the weather, this year looks to be a vast improvement over last year simply based on the projected temperatures for December. I'm hoping that we won't take the typical La Na "early spring" route until late February.
 
Well hot dog, Phil would get his long awaited bug killing 1st freeze next week on Thu 12/14 per the 0Z GFS!
The tall western ridge means business on this run for next week.
 
Well what do you know, the 0Z GEFS is the coldest run in at least 4 and is quite cold over most of the E 1/2 of the US all of next week and well into the following week!

Edit: The -AO looks solid on this run all of the way to the end, which would be analog consistent.
 
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both Euro and Gfs 00z runs pretty similar up to 240, 500mb pattern-wise... Gfs, tries to 'zone' out towards end of the run, and Christmas time... We'll see.
 
MRX taking out any small chance for snow shower activity this weekend for southern Tn valley.. guess I can't blame them:
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)...The theme for Thursday
through Friday Night will be that the Tennessee Valley/southern
Appalachians will be between the northern stream storm track (over
the Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley) and southern stream (from Texas
across the southeast United States). Plenty of high level clouds
will remain, but precipitation will be rather limited.

For Saturday, latest GFS and ECMWF agree with taking a fast moving
short-wave farther north across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and
just brushing southwest virginia and northeast Tennessee with light
precipitation. A mixture of snow and rain showers are expected.
Limited snow accumulations are possible across the higher
elevations, such as High Knob, especially Saturday night.

For Sunday and Monday, dry west to northwest flow aloft and
surface ridging will produce dry conditions and milder
temperatures for Monday.

For Monday night and Tuesday, another short-wave dives toward the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Precipitation in for the form of snow is
possible, but the evolution of the system will likely change, so will
not get too specific.

--------for what it's worth, nrgjeff over at americanwx basically put the poo-poo on this 12 hours ago for the CHA area. Good call. He's a damn good met/poster btw, wish he posted over here too.
 
The storm at hour 384 looks like it could shape up to be something nice. :p :cool: Just gonna dream on that one for the moment lol.
 
whamby said:
MRX taking out any small chance for snow shower activity this weekend for southern Tn valley.. guess I can't blame them:
.LONG TERM...(Thursday through Tuesday)...The theme for Thursday
through Friday Night will be that the Tennessee Valley/southern
Appalachians will be between the northern stream storm track (over
the Great Lakes/upper Ohio Valley) and southern stream (from Texas
across the southeast United States). Plenty of high level clouds
will remain, but precipitation will be rather limited.

For Saturday, latest GFS and ECMWF agree with taking a fast moving
short-wave farther north across the Great Lakes and Ohio Valley and
just brushing southwest virginia and northeast Tennessee with light
precipitation. A mixture of snow and rain showers are expected.
Limited snow accumulations are possible across the higher
elevations, such as High Knob, especially Saturday night.

For Sunday and Monday, dry west to northwest flow aloft and
surface ridging will produce dry conditions and milder
temperatures for Monday.

For Monday night and Tuesday, another short-wave dives toward the
Ohio/Tennessee Valleys. Precipitation in for the form of snow is
possible, but the evolution of the system will likely change, so will
not get too specific.

--------for what it's worth, nrgjeff over at americanwx basically put the poo-poo on this 12 hours ago for the CHA area. Good call. He's a damn good met/poster btw, wish he posted over here too.
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I trust him more than any other meteorologist. I may not post a whole lot but I've been on these boards since 09/10 and he is completely unbiased and he is right way more times than he is wrong. if anyone gets a chance you should pop over to the Tennessee Valley forum and read the things he has to say. He's the best MET on the boards in my opinion.
 
Chattownsnow said:
I trust him more than any other meteorologist. I may not post a whole lot but I've been on these boards since 09/10 and he is completely unbiased and he is right way more times than he is wrong. if anyone gets a chance you should pop over to the Tennessee Valley forum and read the things he has to say. He's the best MET on the boards in my opinion.
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Ughh! I just want some flurries
 
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