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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Classic downstream wave amplification in association w/ a typhoon recurve and onto a pattern that's already pretty amplified in its own right and one that's throwing cold air into North America as is would have ginormous cold shot written all over it
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This Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave that's forecast to cross the Pacific and potentially aid in TCG in the West Pac next week, which could of course just make our long range pattern that much better than it probably will be, has already produced 2 tropical cyclones in the Indian Ocean, one of which is designated 3B. Definitely a pretty storm as it crosses into the Bay of Bengal... The idea here is that this CCKW has already shown its capable of producing TCs, with a few already having formed in a climatologically less conducive portion of the global tropics makes the potential for a typhoon recurve in the West Pac even more legitimate...
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What Anthony is alluding to here is a return to -AAM juxtaposed in the mid-high latitudes, a configuration that helped to get the ball rolling wrt the current blocking regime, it's going to make yet another return in a week or so, which only increases the confidence for persistence of intensification of the high latitude blocking over Greenland, the North Pacific, & Arctic...
We're definitely trying to hit the jackpot for a cold pattern in the longer term...
 
Webberweather53 said:
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What Anthony is alluding to here is a return to -AAM juxtaposed in the mid-high latitudes, a configuration that helped to get the ball rolling wrt the current blocking regime, it's going to make yet another return in a week or so, which only increases the confidence for persistence of intensification of the high latitude blocking over Greenland, the North Pacific, & Arctic...
We're definitely trying to hit the jackpot for a cold pattern in the longer term...
Click to expand...
thank you for distilling this 'utter jibberish' to my feeble mind into some sense....
 
I'm interested in figuring out why the GFS is able to dramatically change so much at H5 between runs over the last couple of days. I get what it's doing, but what is it sniffing & processing to allow such run variances on it's OP versus the GEFS?

It makes one wonder if it's just part of the "runs 4 times a day thing" or if it sees something that is plausible. If it's the later, a lot of wind will be taken out of our sails before Winter even gets going.
 
Shawn said:
I'm interested in figuring out why the GFS is able to dramatically change so much at H5 between runs over the last couple of days. I get what it's doing, but what is it sniffing & processing to allow such run variances on it's OP versus the GEFS?

It makes one wonder if it's just part of the "runs 4 times a day thing" or if it sees something that is plausible. If it's the later, a lot of wind will be taken out of our sails before Winter even gets going.
Click to expand...
good question actually.. think it will come down GEFS being a mean average of data run through, rather than a single set of data.
 
insane how one run is cold here and the next isn't.... tonight's runs would put us into top 10 latest freezes after all this hype about cold. Yay. Not. lol
 
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Wow!! The hammer comes down middle of the month. Also it has alot to do with the snow pack. Very cold run
 
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This is flirting very badly with an overrunning event for someone of the frozen department.
 
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