• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Loving the trends today. The EPS has over 30 of 50 members showing me getting at least a little snow, while the GEFS has 11 of 20 or so. I think this may actually end up being out
Tarheel1 said:
6z GFS looks meh. It's just one run, but verbatim, looks like cold shots, warm up, frontal passage, cool down, repeat
Click to expand...
I just started ignoring 6Z. It always looks the worst for this system. 12z will be new data too, so I'll base trends at 12z versus 6z. The runs overnight once more sounded and looked great.
 
The ensembles are what are still keeping me intrigued for Thu. and Fri/Sat. Hopefully we'll start seeing more consensus as early as today from the OP models one way or another.
 
I’ve been reading for years but don’t post very often. I do have a long term question though. Anybody have thoughts on whether the cold, stormy pattern will hold through Christmas into the new year?
 
RobertRath said:
I’ve been reading for years but don’t post very often. I do have a long term question though. Anybody have thoughts on whether the cold, stormy pattern will hold through Christmas into the new year?
Click to expand...

The pattern does show some signs of relaxation around the 20th. However, with all long-range models, it's just a broad-brush idea of what could happen and should be taken with a grain of salt.
 
Omg, look at that bitter cold coming down into the Midwest around 12/13!!!
 
GaWx said:
Omg, look at that bitter cold coming down into the Midwest around 12/13!!!
Click to expand...
Perfect! Right in time for our next storm! Grain of salt/ GFS cold bias in longer term!
 
Once again, like the Euro the past few runs really good general setup for something in the southeastern US the 3rd week of December . Huge vortex over SE Canada w/ monster arctic wave both of which will start to retreat in time for a s/w to come out of the southern branch and southwestern US... Not bad
gfs_T2ma_us_41.png
gfs_z500_vort_us_40.png
 
Storm5 said:
12z gfs should be interesting in a few as long as the energy does not get held up in the SW
Click to expand...
Hard to really see on my phone but verbatim it's looks just cold and dry for now. Pac ridge placement to far east? Or too much northern stream?

Didn't see Eric's post, he covered it lol

Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
 
Not bad... Snow/ice down to the I-40 corridor, some snow even gets into north TX. Specifics really don't matter for the next several days just the fact that we have a planetary-synoptic setup in the most general sense that is conducive to a winter storm in the southern tier
 
Yeap GFS in that Dec. 15th to Dec 20th range still looking solid low in Gulf temps almost where want them to be
 
Still hanging on to projected BN ... :cool:

sfc_count_sup814_temp.gif
 
Really like the look of the EPS next week leading up to the December 13-21 period, deep and fresh snow cover to our north, big arctic airmass comes divebombing into the eastern US, all we're missing is something to come out of the southwestern US in the southern stream
eps_tsnow_24m_conus2_35.png
 
This is about as classic of a setup as you'll ever see preceding an overrunning/Miller B event in the Carolinas, SE US, and Mid Atlantic at 500 hPa with a big cold core vortex about to retreat over SE Canada, huge rex block over Alaska, and something left behind in the southern stream over the Baja peninsula
eps_z500a_c_noram_39.png
 
I really like how stable the cold pattern continues to look on virtually all of the models through D10. Obviously, there will be some waxing and waning of the intensity through the balance of the month, but it would certainly be nice to continue to see the PNA ridge and ridging over the pole and into Greenland remain steady in the means as we head into January.
 
Rain Cold said:
I really like how stable the cold pattern continues to look on virtually all of the models through D10. Obviously, there will be some waxing and waning of the intensity through the balance of the month, but it would certainly be nice to continue to see the PNA ridge and ridging over the pole and into Greenland remain steady in the means as we head into January.
Click to expand...
Agreed, but just prepare. Once it breaks down and we flip it's gonna be UGLY. hopefully that wont happen till mid January . We need to score sooner vs later
 
Storm5 said:
Agreed, but just prepare. Once it breaks down and we flip it's gonna be UGLY. hopefully that wont happen till mid January . We need to score sooner vs later
Click to expand...
That's probably right. But I'm starting to think this just *might not* turn out to be one of those common "winter is over" winters after we flip. I certainly don't expect wall to wall cold, but we're off to quite the surprising start, and I'm starting to think this might be one of those winters that ends up leaving everyone befuddled by its propensity to get cold in the east.
 
Storm5 said:
Agreed, but just prepare. Once it breaks down and we flip it's gonna be UGLY. hopefully that wont happen till mid January . We need to score sooner vs later
Click to expand...

Rain Cold said:
That's probably right. But I'm starting to think this just *might not* turn out to be one of those common "winter is over" winters after we flip. I certainly don't expect wall to wall cold, but we're off to quite the surprising start, and I'm starting to think this might be one of those winters that ends up leaving everyone befuddled by its propensity to get cold in the east.
Click to expand...

I think we're so used to being in patterns that seem to last forever, and either be one extreme or the other. Maybe we'll get lucky this winter and the upcoming pattern will hold for a long time and give us plenty of chances for winter storms. Or maybe we'll actually have a winter with a bunch of different pattern changes.
 
Rain Cold said:
That's probably right. But I'm starting to think this just *might not* turn out to be one of those common "winter is over" winters after we flip. I certainly don't expect wall to wall cold, but we're off to quite the surprising start, and I'm starting to think this might be one of those winters that ends up leaving everyone befuddled by its propensity to get cold in the east.
Click to expand...

Best case is probably a less intense version of 10/11 (which is an analog that gets tossed around a lot however). Cold early but once the door slammed, February was very warm. But what was left in it's wake is one of the best winters in recent memory.
 
Rain Cold said:
That's probably right. But I'm starting to think this just *might not* turn out to be one of those common "winter is over" winters after we flip. I certainly don't expect wall to wall cold, but we're off to quite the surprising start, and I'm starting to think this might be one of those winters that ends up leaving everyone befuddled by its propensity to get cold in the east.
Click to expand...

Man I hope so, that's my biggest fear at this point, that we have this really good cold pattern juuuussstt outside climo and we blank, then January go time comes around and we lose all our blocks.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
Best case is probably a less intense version of 10/11 (which is an analog that gets tossed around a lot however). Cold early but once the door slammed, February was very warm. But what was left in it's wake is one of the best winters in recent memory.
Click to expand...
Not all of Feb 2011 was warm. The first two weeks were pretty cold I believe and it even snowed. Then once mid Feb hit, it got warm fast and stayed warm.
 
EPS weeklies are below normal right on into the 2nd week of January, can see signs of the classical NINA winter pattern progression trying to catch up with us by mid month, but with a huge ridge over NE Siberia and Alaska, North America would continue to get seeded w/ cold air...
 
Webberweather53 said:
EPS weeklies are below normal right on into the 2nd week of January, can see signs of the classical NINA winter pattern progression trying to catch up with us by mid month, but with a huge ridge over NE Siberia and Alaska, North America would continue to get seeded w/ cold air...
Click to expand...
Webb,
About that Santa clause suit --- what size do you wear? Headed out to do some shopping ... ;)
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top