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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

whatalife said:
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Weenie weenie #winning


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Oh snap
 
Since the eastern trough will be deep, initially any storm system will be suppressed in the western/SW GOM. If any storm system, it would probably come up well south from the GOM, and track along the eastern seaboard. If that's the case, we could have a snowstorm from the SE US to the NE US.

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Verbatim this is a sloppy wintry mix-wet snow mess over the Carolinas so the snow you see on the 10:1 ratio maps doesnt account for compaction by sleet, melting, and/or mixing w/ rain, which cuts the totals back by at least 75%
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As I thought I'm a touch north in this from the ECMWF, but who cares, let's fix this up a bit and haul it in lmao!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Verbatim this is a sloppy wintry mix-wet snow mess over the Carolinas so the snow you see on the 10:1 ratio maps doesnt account for compaction by sleet, melting, and/or mixing w/ rain, which cuts the totals back by at least 75%
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Yep. I was just about to post this. Very good call.


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Thanks guys
 
Webberweather53 said:
Verbatim this is a sloppy wintry mix-wet snow mess over the Carolinas so the snow you see on the 10:1 ratio maps doesnt account for compaction by sleet, melting, and/or mixing w/ rain, which cuts the totals back by at least 75%
View attachment 1693
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I don't understand! This blockbuster pattern changing cold front comes through on Wednesday, why will it not snow for a lot more people!??
 
Interesting that even the mean is showing heavier accumulation toward the coast. Can we get a breakdown of the members?
 
Is there any chance this could trend little west, say towards south/central Bama? 12 gefs suggest most of its members more west.
 
accu35 said:
Is there any chance this could trend little west, say towards south/central Bama? 12 gefs suggest most of its members more west.
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There is the chance it will go away completely, all the way to gang busters for the whole SE, lol. When it's two days out we might know something. It's got time to cook off. T
 
Remember the North and Westward drift in our winter weather history of model watching. Long way to go yet and we often see these things come back west as the time period shortens but we also see them go poof sometimes too. Hopefully someone scores here and we don't have a miss wide right for most of us with the strength of the cold as currently progged
 
It seems to me the Cold is starting to relax some. Long range GFS not looking as cold. Hopefully this isn’t the case. Any thoughts?
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
Lol the gfs has a beauty of a storm in fantasy land for NC. Low off the coast with snow falling with temps in the low 20s and 850s well below 0 C. Then lows plunge to 8 degrees that night
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Yes it does...LMBO!


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Cary_Snow95 said:
Lol the gfs has a beauty of a storm in fantasy land for NC. Low off the coast with snow falling with temps in the low 20s and 850s well below 0 C. Then lows plunge to 8 degrees that night
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Yes, that is a beauty. If next weekend doesn't work out it could just be setting the stage for a big storm down the road. It often works out like that. I don't think we get out of December without seeing a good storm. The signal is so strong .
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_50.png
 
A storm has been consistently showing up on the models for that time period for a while now.
 
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