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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Storm5 said:
18z GEFS keeps the western ridge just off the west coast late in the run . Let's hope that's not a trend....
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Bingo! That would be a big kick in the sack! Maybe we get real lucky and it keeps going more west and we get the Arctic express will dump into the Rockies and west coast! Like the super outbreaks usually do! :(
 
Storm5 said:
I'll take a true western ridge over the nao all day everyday. I honestly wouldn't care if the NAO goes positive . If we get a sustained -epo I'm good
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Yeah, Larry did show those stats on how the NAO isn’t as important as it is made out to be.. I’ll say though if that ridge shifts to far west allowing the SER to flex that will be a “are you kidding me” moment for me
 
EastAtlwx said:
Don’t like seeing the ridging over Greenland slowly fading away as we get closer to verification. At least that’s what I️ saw on the gfs past few runs....
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We'll be more than fine without it. The dearth of Greenland blocking will open the door for transport of siberian air into North America with a dominant NP ridge. Not having a -NAO doesnt necessarily have much of a bearing on the amount and number of winter storms observed in the SE US (esp as long as there's high latitude north pac blocking) but it could change their character and allow for a more familiar, overunning/Miller B setup over the southern tier given other synoptic and large scale forcings are conducive
 
EastAtlwx said:
Yeah, Larry did show those stats on how the NAO isn’t as important as it is made out to be.. I’ll say though if that ridge shifts to far west allowing the SER to flex that will be a “are you kidding me” moment for me
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The ridge will shift west but as it does so, allowing the SE US ridge to try and become more dominant, we'll have warm/moist WSW-SWly flow overrunning arctic air that is liable to become firmly entrenched by then, which is exactly what you want to see if you like wintry wx and esp overrunning events in the south...
 
Webberweather53 said:
The ridge will shift west but as it does so, allowing the SE US ridge to try and become more dominant, we'll have warm/moist WSW-SWly flow overrunning arctic air that is liable to become firmly entrenched by then, which is exactly what you want to see if you like wintry wx and esp overrunning events in the south...
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Absolutely like the Jan 28 2014 event.. im just saying if it shifts too far west where the SER becomes dominant like December 2013.
 
Storm5 said:
18z GEFS keeps the western ridge just off the west coast late in the run . Let's hope that's not a trend....
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The transition period between regimes especially when you're in the midst of a retrograding North Pacific block w/ a SE US ridge that's trying to amplify is often when we score an overrunning event in the SE US because low-level arctic air masses don't like to leave and scour out very quickly esp if you have a deep snow cover in the northern tier and/or over the Carolinas when there's large-scale moist, WAA capping and reinforcing a CAD dome
 
EastAtlwx said:
Absolutely like the Jan 28 2014 event.. im just saying if it shifts too far west where the SER becomes dominant like December 2013.
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This will eventually happen in the seasonal means as we get closer to February and March but I wouldn't worry about this atm unless the forcing changes dramatically between now and the verification period. The bgd state in a NINA during December is favorable for big cold shots in the east-central US
 
The 850 hPa temp anomalies on the EPS out at day 15 are just plain ridiculous... Considering the dampening that takes place this far out -8- -10C anomalies on the ensemble mean is eye opening. In fact, the modeled anomalies are already of the same intensity of the powerful cold shot that's going to occur around next weekend... If nothing else, that should immediately be raising red flags that what's coming later in the period towards mid month, anchored by cross polar flow from Siberia could mean serious business...
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I guess we all see what we want to see in the model runs (the good, the bad, and the ugly). I like where we appear to be headed. I love where the AO appears to be going and that western ridge likes good to me. It’s hard to imagine that at some point later into December some in the SE not scoring some type of winter wx!


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Probably worth bringing this up but here's the 500 hPa height anomalies before and during the February 1973 & February/December 1989 events which are among the largest on record for many on this board... Note even w/ a +AO/+NAO and pretty stout SE US ridge, all it took was a big blocking high over Alaska to send arctic air plunging deep into the US and accompanying upstream split flow to get the southern stream going and lead to a big event. Moral of the story is don't fret if say the Greenland blocking ridge disappears or if the ridge over the NE Pacific is slightly further west, etc., we've seen much crappier produce monster events in our neck of the woods on a regular basis (& I'm only using these storms as a few examples, there's plenty more in the historical record...) & of course stellar patterns w/ nothing...
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From the Euro, this from WAFF in Huntsville showing snowfall late next week
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Yeah, don't think CHA will ever see another below zero temp in my lifetime..The last occurrence was in 1985 with -10. Now that's an official NWS temp. I've seen it as low as minus 2 at the house in Feb 1996. How much of that is UHI and how much AGW, I don't know.
 
-60 up over Siberia. Early and should have a little punch in it still despite going across brown ground late next week.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Global warming ftw... Even when we get a really cold looking pattern we can't break record lows across a large swath of the country, but let even so much as an inkling of a modest upper level ridge and whola record highs galore... :mad:
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yeah that cold snap ain't even impressive here... boringly average tbh. I mean its better than record highs but not by much

the only one impressive was 384 hours on the 18z which likely will never verify
 
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