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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Liking those goings on in the Gulf next Sat/Sun! Could get interesting, really quickly. On GFS seems it's been a little more robust each run
 
Snowflowxxl said:
That storm at 138 just keeps getting a little closer hmmmm
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There's no storm established, it's moisture riding the frontal boundary. Could still have a late bloomer developing off the SE coast.

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Again, watching that positive tilt trough over Mexico that could develop into a LP system over the GOM.
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WeatherWatch said:
There's no storm established, it's moisture riding the frontal boundary. Could still have a late bloomer developing off the SE coast.

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It will be interesting to watch. Get an impulse coming up, and it's something for a lot of us. If it's just some over running north central, it's still some sleet showers possible. And it's only 6 or 7 days out :) Of course, climo says no for around here, except maybe some scattered pellets, but Larry's purpose for this thread, is to give analogs some love, so it's possible, lol. I have suffered thru many winters where the scattered sleet in Nov. or Dec. was all I saw the whole season, so you just have to take what's offered :) And it's only 100 years since the last Dec major offering from old man winter :) T
 
Don may end up looking good in the future as it seems like what he's looking at is creeping closer. Wonder if it could phase with the clipper and come up with something, even if its small...at least for North Alabama/Georgia/Upstate SC and north from there.
 
Using the TT maps, temps around the Atlanta area.
06z GFS on 00z Sun - 50°F
12z GFS on 00z Sun - 32°F

Only a 18 degree difference, no big deal. lol
 
WeatherWatch said:
Again, watching that positive tilt trough over Mexico that could develop into a LP system over the GOM.
81f7b051d294a1dadf12350230e9876c.jpg


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Not a chance with a deep trough like that. It will shear that puny s/w out every time.

The only chance I see for winter precip is a few token flurries or sleet pellets on the Northern side of that stalled boundry unless you are in NC where I could see the SW flow allowing some overrunning. Otherwise it is 200+ hours at the minimum for rest of us outside possibly the mountains.
 
Typical SEUS winter luck. Really cold air for this time of year but either A) Storms are suppressed or B) Warm air is present by the time the moisture moves into the area.

The image above shows just that.
 
Still a pretty decent 12z run, looks little colder than 6z. This run screems ICE to me. Pattern still way better than last year.
 
Arcc said:
Not a chance with a deep trough like that. It will shear that puny s/w out every time.

The only chance I see for winter precip is a few token flurries or sleet pellets on the Northern side of that stalled boundry unless you are in NC where I could see the SW flow allowing some overrunning. Otherwise it is 200+ hours at the minimum for rest of us outside possibly the mountains.
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If any LP that develops, it will probably get kicked out soon as the polar low displacement relaxes. So, there could be a system days between 7-10. This is based from the GFS OP of course. Still need to watch the baroclinc zone.

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Webberweather53 said:
Most recent Euro weeklies from November 30th looked amazing right into mid January, but you could definitely begin to see the classic late winter pullback as February approached...
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Given our chances, it sounds like after then winter is basically over. Good news is that the next month and a half looks like a great opportunity for a storm based on what you are saying. As far as the recent trends, looks like backside overrunning is not happening as all cold chasing moisture ends, but maybe we could get something in the small system that follows soon after. If not, then its time to start watching the 240 range again.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Most recent Euro weeklies from November 30th looked amazing right into mid January, but you could definitely begin to see the classic late winter pullback as February approached...
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Who cares about February, look at what's happening the next 4-6 weeks!!
 
As long as we have the whole month of January, I'm good. Even if the next winter or two after this one ends up warm, it won't matter for me if we get a nice board wide storm (at least almost).
 
Lol I've been lazy and have really just briefly browsed anything that isn't based on temps and the pattern for now on the models. When there's a threat we're trying to haul in, I'll start looking at more.
 
CMC suppresses next weekends potential system, GFS is close.... see what the Euro shows, this may be nothing but certainly a time frame I like as the best potential over next 10 days.

Now I'm off with the Fam to Raleigh for Christmas shopping (Lord help me) and the Tree lighting tonight, if I don't make it back.... it's been a great ride ;)
 
For all of the guests that are viewing this page right now, please take a minute or two of your time to make an account. With the upcoming pattern, this forum is going to become very active and if there is a storm then guest viewing might be disabled. Sorry if this is too banterish btw
 
One would think that the hard push of cold / Northern Stream (NS) would crush most anything looking at the charts above. Maybe even further to the South than the GFS is modeling as the GFS is precipitation happy a lot of times. I would be looking for smaller short waves to give smaller (albeit good) events, that are able to creep in from the South.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Given our chances, it sounds like after then winter is basically over. Good news is that the next month and a half looks like a great opportunity for a storm based on what you are saying. As far as the recent trends, looks like backside overrunning is not happening as all cold chasing moisture ends, but maybe we could get something in the small system that follows soon after. If not, then its time to start watching the 240 range again.
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Yeah this is why I mentioned the December 13-21 period on my twitter account as the period we could score if at all several days ago
 
Stormlover said:
Agree, that's way too far to worry about, plus plenty of time for them to change.
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Theres time for it to change but it's very hard to go against bgd climatology of NINA winters which are often blowtorch warm in February... I'd be shocked if we ended up anywhere close to normal
 
Tarheel1 said:
Who cares about February, look at what's happening the next 4-6 weeks!!
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For the number of opportunities, February-early March tends to make the most of them most frequently and often produces the largest winter storms in NC... La Niñas usually just make this period an extension of spring which is favored this year...
 
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