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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

GaStorm said:
Webber's post on it yesterday does show it promotes blocking though.
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That's my whole point . The blocking has to be in the right places. You can have all the blocking in the world and we could still miss out on cold. Yes a recurve can help with blocking and yes it can help with getting cold air to us. That does not mean it works like that all the time.

AND most ensemble members keep 94w heading towards the west with no recurve . I think that was the meat of that tweet. Saying hey. This might not recurve
 
metwannabe said:
Volatility is referencing the potential pattern change not a specific event. Webb states this could be a fly in the ointment, recall back during hurricane season he elaborated in great detail how recurving typhoons effect the upper pattern, planetary wave breaks, etc etc that effect east coast troughs/ridges. I think the fly in the ointment is the uncertainty of what lies ahead cold/torch/normal due to a recurving typhoon that models just can't resolve. Proceed with caution...

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Oh okay, so the fly in the ointment could benefit the colder pattern, or on the other hand, it could ruin the colder pattern. Since recurve of typhoons affect the upper pattern, this could benefit winter storms or any other weather event(s) depending upon of what the pattern will turn out to be.
 
WeatherWatch said:
Oh okay, so the fly in the ointment could benefit the colder pattern, or on the other hand, it could ruin the colder pattern. Since recurve of typhoons affect the upper pattern, this could benefit winter storms or any other weather event(s) depending upon of what the pattern will turn out to be.
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Yes it's more about effecting the pattern which eventually effects sensible weather in one's back yard. I just don't think we can make the leap from eventual strength and/or path of a typhoon to how it effects a specific event without properly digesting all the planetary connections in between that gets us to that result.

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pcbjr said:
Well, well ... not a forecast from your Curmudgeon, but merely a sign of a pattern that obviously many folks would like to see ...

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Positive signs continue.
 
Start looking for pieces of energy/systems trying to fire in the longer range as the cold push relaxes, albeit for a short period of time. Bigger SE events tend to happen during a pattern moderation. You don't want vodka cold pushing and pushing the entire time, as anything that may get going will be on it's way to Cuba.

It's give and take. I saw a few signs right after the 13th or so, but it's lala land.
 
Shawn said:
Start looking for pieces of energy/systems trying to fire in the longer range as the cold push relaxes, albeit for a short period of time. Bigger SE events tend to happen during a pattern moderation. You don't want vodka cold pushing and pushing the entire time, as anything that may get going will be on it's way to Cuba.

It's give and take. I saw a few signs right after the 13th or so, but it's lala land.
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Yeah right before a pattern change or during relaxation is a great time to score. But I'd still rather have a huge push of vodka first and then start looking during relaxation as you pointed out . I'd rather have moderating arctic air vs meager cold temps
 
Storm5 said:
No, I take that as invest 94 could blow our pattern up and screw everything up. Has nothing to do with a winter storm
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I think the end result will be (if it recurves) it will make the pattern even better, but there could be some momentary destructive interference of our wave pattern along the way... It's a double edged sword, as the Aleutian low becomes deeper and more extensive we begin to lose the cross polar transport of Siberian air into North America, however we're probably going to be left with a more active southern stream & suppressed SE US ridge...
 
Storm5 said:
Yeah right before a pattern change or during relaxation is a great time to score. But I'd still rather have a huge push of vodka first and then start looking during relaxation as you pointed out . I'd rather have moderating arctic air vs meager cold temps
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I wanted newer weather watchers to realize that just because that "540" dashed blue line isn't through their back yard during a relaxation period, doesn't mean no Wintry precipitation for them. It's a good time, usually after an Arctic air intrusion.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Do or don't look at the 12Z GFS, the cold chasing moisture only 138 - 162 hours out is quite fun.
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As you see happening out there towards Texas, the cold push is squashing anything potentially winding up. Cute backside flurries for parts of the SE though! (Yes, even ATL)
 
Mountains & TN might end up doing okay (ignoring snowfall maps) on that kind of setup. Right with the first cold push from the pattern change. That is some very cold, dense air rushing in behind spring time temperatures for many, and I can see precipitation basically "appearing" to put it easily.
 
And then we get a coastal forming off NC. and precipitation wrapping through GA, SC, NC. RUh Roh
 
System proceeds to start laying snow to the North. Kind of what I and a couple other had alluded to.. with this kind of pattern change, a coastal popping (likely further North, but who knows) makes sense for the NE. Good run for W. NC.
 
The LP that comes about off the NC coast doesn't move all that much, hrs 174-180. I may end up being dumped on with snow in a short period of time. If that system moves even slower = non-stop snow until that LP kicks off to the NE.
 
ForsythSnow said:
:weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie::weenie:
gfs_asnow_seus_31.png
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I don't like it, Atlanta gets snow before I do.... we toss In all seriousness what's not to like about the potential, I mean there is no comparison already to last year this is great!

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Looks good guys ! Keep up the good vibes! That 12z is sexy!
 
Precipitation type maps don't always tell the whole story. What I can say is that this look right here, is quite good for parts of Upstate SC, N. GA, and half of NC:

gfs_T850_us_31.png
 
ForsythSnow said:
That would be a 2 to 4 inch storm here if it continues showing up. This is in a great range too, not out in the 200s. Hope the Euro gives a similar look.
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Wait I spoke too soon, I do get snow out of this.... we keep Lol
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Shawn said:
Precipitation type maps don't always tell the whole story. What I can say is that this look right here, is quite good for parts of Upstate SC, N. GA, and half of NC:

gfs_T850_us_31.png
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These setups are usually very risky for areas like RDU & CLT and often screw us over... Would like to see a super suppressed wave and/or the cold air to push in more quickly w/ this anafront to score something substantial at least here in Raleigh. Certainly can't say the same about areas along and NW of I-85
 
Webberweather53 said:
These setups are usually very risky for areas like RDU & CLT and often screw us over... Would like to see a super suppressed wave and/or the cold air to push in more quickly w/ this anafront to score something substantial at least here in Raleigh. Certainly can't say the same about areas along and NW of I-85
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Sacrificing storms Webb to lay down that snow cover, gotta take one for the team

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