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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

BillT said:
i pointed out an EXCEPTION to that general rule......and indeed Mr. Webber is implying there cant be a snow right after the pattern changes, i did read all of his posts.....i agree having snowcover to the n and nw really helps the possibility of snow in the se, i also agree 1993 was a very UNusual storm, but since it did happen and there was no snowcover close to bama, 93 shows strange weather can and does happen..........i did disagree when shown the snowcover that the post saying i was wrong was NOT backed up by showing NO snowcover within 1000 miles of central bama...the rebuttal post showed my post was accurate....not here to argue here to learn and share info when i have some to share, so in summary i simply state it is possible to get a large storm in the SE with very little snow cover to our n or nw......POSSIBLE, not likely in fact a large snow storm is the SE is "never" likely but always a possibility....those that read this TY.
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For the umpteenth and final time, the snow cover extent preceding the March 1993 storm was not unusual whatsoever, with the axis near I 70... That's fairly normal for a winter storm in the SE US
 
i never said it was unusual i simply posted the truth that you confirmed it was nowhere near alabama.....
 
BillT said:
i never said it was unusual i simply posted the truth that you confirmed it was nowhere near alabama.....
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Ok it may have been nowhere near Alabama but what you're saying is a irrelevant because snow cover is usually this far from AL anyway, the snow cover for the next few weeks will be much further away from normal so it's not helping us. Let's move on please...
 
Euro may be headed to the bullpen to start getting ready (notice, did not say "to warm up" ... LOL)

ecmwf_z500_mslp_us_fh240-240.gif
 
BillT said:
i never said it was unusual i simply posted the truth that you confirmed it was nowhere near alabama.....
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Webberweather53 said:
Ok it may have been nowhere near Alabama but what you're saying is a irrelevant because snow cover is usually this far from AL anyway, the snow cover for the next few weeks will be much further away from normal so it's not helping us. Let's move on please...
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Storm was 24 years ago, let's move on.

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
 
The greenland blocking on this Euro run looked meh... Starting to look more & more like the winters from the mid 1990s and 2013-14/14-15 as time progresses
 
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png
I can only imagine a few more frames would look like on the CMC, with that cold shooting down, storm out west energy from the north...
 
BillT said:
i pointed out an EXCEPTION to that general rule......and indeed Mr. Webber is implying there cant be a snow right after the pattern changes, i did read all of his posts.....i agree having snowcover to the n and nw really helps the possibility of snow in the se, i also agree 1993 was a very UNusual storm, but since it did happen and there was no snowcover close to bama, 93 shows strange weather can and does happen..........i did disagree when shown the snowcover that the post saying i was wrong was NOT backed up by showing NO snowcover within 1000 miles of central bama...the rebuttal post showed my post was accurate....not here to argue here to learn and share info when i have some to share, so in summary i simply state it is possible to get a large storm in the SE with very little snow cover to our n or nw......POSSIBLE, not likely in fact a large snow storm is the SE is "never" likely but always a possibility....those that read this TY.
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Webber isn't saying there is 0 chance of a snowstorm right after the pattern change. He's saying that it isn't likely, based on several factors, not the least of which is that it is early in the season and that there is not enough snow pack north and west to help refrigerate any air mass that migrates toward our area....particularly because it's early in the season. I agree that it will likely (but not absolutely definitely for certain) take some time to get a storm here. I'll let him clarify if I'm misstating his position.

The 93 storm is always an exceptional event to use in discussion because it was, well, an exceptional event, and it carried with it many aspects of winter weather that are unusual. But you're not wrong to use it as an illustration to show an exception. My interpretation, however, is that it turns out to be an exception to a point that wasn't made. That said, I do agree that there wasn't snowfall in the Alabama area prior to that storm. My hunch is though, it's probably much easier to snow in Alabama with a healthy snowpack not too far off to the north, which I think we're all in agreement with. You're right, though...a large SE snowstorm is an anomalous event, especially these days.
 
accu35 said:
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png
I can only imagine a few more frames would look like on the CMC, with that cold shooting down, storm out west energy from the north...
Click to expand...

Verbatim that would probably end up being a big winter storm for areas further north & west of our region (minus Texas & Oklahoma w/ the aid of CAD down the eastern slopes of the Rockies), heavy rain and severe weather could be a problem however... Too early to speculate in any case
 
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